This Is What The Future Of Health Care Looks Like
After the Crash of 1929 and during the depths of the Great Depression, the federal government went about cleaning up the mess. And it was a big mess.
With the popping of a decade-long stock speculation bubble came an economic downturn that shrunk the nation’s GDP by 47% and forced 25% of the American workforce into unemployment. By 1933, 11,000 of the country’s 25,000 banks had disappeared.
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Deputized by FDR’s New Deal, Congress went about repairing the damage by installing regulation where, prior to the crash, there had been little to none. In 1933, the Securities Act and the Glass-Steagall Act set about to supervise financial markets and banking.
#-ad_banner-#Another important, but often overlooked, piece of legislation was the Public Utility Holding Company Act (also known as the Wheeler-Rayburn Act) of 1935. Leading up to the Crash, electric companies had become massively leveraged, multi-state monopolies that were often immune to state regulation. The law effectively limited a power producer’s operation to a single state or limited geographical area and subjected the companies to stricter state regulation by public service commissions. This ensured fair and level rates for customers. While the1935 law was essentially repealed in 2005, it was replaced by an updated version that still requires state-by-state regulation of operating subsidiaries.
Put simply, let’s say I pay 9.6 cents per kilowatt hour (kwh) for my electricity. So does my neighbor. So does the old lady down the street. So does the person in a poorer neighborhood. So does the multi-millionaire in the mansion on the country club golf course.
That’s how health care should work. But it doesn’t.
Health insurers are exempt from federal anti-trust laws. Some companies, like Blue Cross Blue Shield, operate in many states as near monopolies. Blue Cross Blue Shield and its licensees insure over 106 million Americans. That’s one-third of the country. And the lack of government regulation, in product terms, seems to treat health care as a luxury rather than a basic utility.
Yet, in 2016, the U.S. Federal Court of Appeals upheld the notion that broadband internet fits the description of a utility like water or electric power. So, from the federal government’s viewpoint, unfettered access to Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) is a right but an MRI is a luxury? That makes absolutely zero sense.
The United States spends the most per capita, over $10,000 annually, on health care than any other developed nation. Canada, on the other hand, spends less than half that ($4,752) and has statistically better health outcomes. U.S. Health care represents over 20% of our GDP. Canada’s is 11.5%.
The difference? Yes. The dreaded “U” word: “UNIVERSAL HEALTH CARE”.
Clearly, among developed countries, the universal coverage model is the model that works. But over here, the good ‘ol U.S. of A, the mere mention of universal health will brand one as a socialist or, even worse, a communist in some political circles (despite the fact that communism died with acid-washed jeans).
In the U.S., universal health care would basically be what some pundits have branded as “Medicare for All”. I have elderly parents, in-laws (one of whom is a retired physician) and clients. I hear no complaints about Medicare from them. So, what’s the hold up for a nationwide roll-out besides the health care lobby’s anaconda–like grip on politicians?
Real costs. Although political proponents of universal health care say the annual cost to the government would be around $1.5 trillion, industry and think tank sources put it closer to $2.5 trillion. The federal government currently brings in a little over $3 trillion a year in revenue. So, after health care sucks up its $2.5 trillion, the rest of the country must work off of $500 billion. And, to quote Wayne Campbell of “Wayne’s World”, monkeys will fly out of my butt.
Practically speaking, converting the American health care system to some kind of universal platform swiftly is virtually impossible. But adopting a utility-style regulatory model isn’t.
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Electrical, water, telecom and gas utilities seemed to have adapted successfully. Southern Company (NYSE: SO), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), and AT&T (NYSE: T) are still private enterprises that rely on capital markets for financing yet abide by and peacefully coexist with strict yet reasonable government regulation. The Affordable Care Act (ACA), or Obamacare, though vilified by many, was a step in the right direction.
By legislating away an insurers ability to refuse coverage due to pre-existing conditions, making preventive care free, as well as ending lifetime and yearly dollar limits, the federal government may have drawn the first blueprint of what a utility-style system could look like.
A large, integrated health care provider like CVS (NYSE: CVS) will be the behemoth, health care provider business model going forward. These providers will operate using subsidiaries for each state, where they sell health insurance and play by each state’s health care commission rules, which will resemble most every other state’s health care commission rules.
Eventually, this will level out costs. An appendectomy will cost about the same across the board in the state of Georgia whether you’re in Atlanta or Savannah. The health care provider industry will continue to consolidate, and the biggest players will resemble large, regulated electric holding companies. The aforementioned CVS will be one. Anthem, Inc. (NYSE: ANTM) will be another.
They will continue as private entities. They will continue to have access to capital markets for financing. They will generate a lot of revenue and, like most utilities, pay their shareholders attractive dividends in exchange for their near-monopoly status.
The benefit to society, though, will be more predictable, reasonable costs. Those providing services and products to the providers — such as the pharmaceutical companies, medical device makers, and even doctors — will adjust their prices in order to keep the business. Those that figure out how to do that profitably will remain in business. Those who don’t will not survive.
It won’t be easy. Politicians will have to make some tough and intelligent decisions, which is something they rarely do. But reformers, free-marketeers, and libertarian types are always talking about “public-private partnership”. Here’s their opportunity.
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