This Investing Genius Made $5 Billion Last Year — Here’s What He’s Buying Now
If you want to invest in the top hedge funds — such as from George Soros, Carl Icahn, Bill Ackman or John Paulson — you will need to write a big check. A minimum investment can easily be $10 million — that is, even if you are allowed to invest. In fact, some hedge funds are closed to new investors.
This is certainly a big letdown. After all, the returns can be substantial. Just look at John Paulson. In 2007, he shorted the subprime market and personally netted $4 billion. Then last year, he made $5 billion — which is considered the most any portfolio manager has ever generated. On his Citigroup (NYSE: C) position alone, he made a 43% return — good for a $1 billion profit.
Paulson does tremendous amounts of research and looks for major investment themes. For example, he spent two years researching his subprime mortgage trade.
OK, so while it is probably impossible to get into his funds, there is actually another way to benefit from his analysis. Every quarter, money managers that have more than $100 million in assets must disclose their portfolio holdings with a 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
So what are some of Paulson’s picks? Let’s take a look at three:
1. Quest Software Inc. (Nasdaq: QSFT): Recently, Paulson has been accumulating shares in software companies. An interesting one is Quest Software, which provides high-end services to major enterprises. These include database and server optimization for top products from companies like Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and IBM (NYSE: IBM).
Quest has more than 100,000 customers, which provides a nice recurring revenue stream. In the most recent quarter, the top-line increased 13% to $193 million. More importantly, license revenue rose 19.7% to $80.6 million. This is critical because it shows strong demand from new customers, which will lead to even more recurring revenue.
To remain competitive, Quest has been aggressive with acquisitions. This helps boost the customer footprint as well as the technology offerings. With more than $400 million in the bank, there is lots of firepower for more deal-making.
2. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT): The company is the largest independent potash producer and has definitely benefited from positive trends in agriculture. [See: “The Next Great Bull Market of the Decade”] As emerging economies like China, India and Brazil grow, so does their diet, primarily by the consumption of more protein. And yes, this means more demand for fertilizers, especially the high-quality ones.
During the past 20 years, there have been meager investments in new potash mines. Yet Potash Corp. has been aggressive in increasing production, which could lead to more revenue and profit growth. The company’s goal is to boost production by more than 50% for the next three years.
3. AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU): Paulson has been a major gold bull since 2009. He believes that inflation will ultimately become a problem and this will mean even more gains for the precious metal.
One of Paulson’s picks is AngloGold, which is a top gold miner in South Africa. True, there has been a steady decline in production, but this is a common problem in the industry. AngloGold has been investing in new areas, however, such as South America and Australia. These should start generating more production within a few years
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Action to Take–> Of all these picks, I like Paulson’s gold focus. With massive budget deficits in the United States — as well as Europe — the inflation scenario seems likely. AngloGold is likely to be a beneficiary. The company has made strides in getting more efficiency from its operations and finding ways to contain labor costs.
So far this year, the gold market has come under lots of pressure. As a result, the shares of AngloGold are selling for about $43.00, which is about 18% off its 52-week high of $52.86. The price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple is now at a more reasonable 33.
Even with a lower gold price, AngloGold could continue to generate substantial profit. But for an investor like Paulson, this is probably not a big concern. No doubt, when making a big trade, it usually takes lots of patience, and his bet on gold will likely turn out to be another hugely successful trade in the long run.