The Best Way To Profit From The Holiday Shopping Spree
The last of the leftover turkey and pumpkin pie are gone, which means the countdown to Christmas has officially begun. And thus far, it has been a smashing success for retailers.
While Black Friday has traditionally been considered the kickoff to the holiday season, many retailers are moving the start earlier and earlier. An estimated 40 million Americans jumped the gun and hit the stores on Thanksgiving Day in search of special deals and promotions.
While checkout lines weren’t quite as long on Friday (according to RetailNext, foot traffic slipped 2% after rising 2% on Thursday), shoppers still spent freely, both online and offline.
Adobe Analytics (which monitors real-time spending at 80 of the nation’s top 100 retailers) estimates that online shoppers spent $7.4 billion on Black Friday, up from $6.2 billion last year. By Sunday night, physical and virtual stores had rung up a combined $69 billion in sales over the long four-day weekend.
But The Shopping Binge Didn’t End There…
Cyber Monday defended its title as the busiest shopping day of the year, with online retailers taking in $9.2 billion in sales. That’s a healthy 17% increase from last year – and a new record high.
#-ad_banner-#Research outfits that track trillions of transactions have shed some light on that growth. Not only are conversion rates up (more people clicking the “buy” button), but those shoppers are also putting more items into their carts. The average order this year rose 6% to $168. At its peak, digital cash registers took in approximately $11 million per minute.
That pace will moderate over the next few weeks. Still, online spending is expected to hit $144 billion for the season. And here’s the part that really got me… nearly five times that much will be spent at brick-and-mortar outlets. Overall, the National Retail Federation is forecasting that total holiday spending this season will rise by about 4% to $730 billion.
Clearly, to paraphrase Mark Twain, rumors of the “death” of brick-and-mortar retail are greatly exaggerated.
By itself, Target (NYSE: TGT) is reportedly hiring 125,000 temporary workers to make sure shelves are stocked and registers are manned during the holiday onslaught. Clearly, management isn’t worried about competition from Amazon. That’s because, as evidenced by the price chart this year, they’re doing a lot of good things to make shareholders happy.
But others, like department store Kohl’s (NYSE: KSS), aren’t seeing as much of a bump.
In any case, the deepest discounters run the risk of winning the battle but losing the war. Retailers like Gap and Banana Republic are running discounts offering 50% off everything in store and online. Apparel retailer Aeropostale discounted its entire inventory by 70%.
Here’s My Plan To Profit
Those aggressive deals may lure shoppers, but they also erode retailers’ already-thin margins. There’s a reason why malls have been plagued by 4,000 empty units vacated by defunct retailers this year that couldn’t evolve.
That’s another reason why I favor shopping developments anchored by tenants that sell experiences rather than things.
For example, developers in New Jersey have just bet $6 billion on a new 70-acre complex that will be the prototype mall of tomorrow. The new American Dream Mall does have luxury renters such as Gucci, but over 50% of the square footage caters to visitors who are looking for entertainment and experiences rather than clothes and shoes.
I’m talking about roller coasters, a waterpark, and even an indoor snow skiing mountain – the first in North America.
Over at High-Yield Investing, we’ve have two real estate investment trusts (REITs) in our portfolio that own properties with this retail/experience hybrid focus — VICI Properties (NYSE: VICI) and EPR Properties (NYSE: EPR). Both landlords should have plenty of happy tenants (and shareholders) this holiday season.
But these two picks are just the beginning… We’re sitting on a number of triple-digit winners in our portfolio over at High-Yield Investing — and we’re earning as much as 11.2% a year in dividends. So if you’re looking for more high-yield stocks to add to your portfolio, then go here to learn more.