These 3 Stocks Are Still a “Buy”
Here at StreetAuthority, we’re constantly searching for fresh investment ideas from which you can profit. But sometimes, it’s the ideas we’ve already discussed in the past that should continue to command your attention. With earnings season in full swing, this is a fine time to revisit some top investment ideas from earlier this year. Do they remain great ideas, now that the latest quarterly results are in? Let’s find out…
#-ad_banner-#1. Delta Airlines (NYSE: DAL)
In late July, I suggested this is the one airline stock to own. Though shares are up 8.5% since then (while the S&P 500 is down 4%), it’s still a far cry from the potential gain I predicted. I knew such a gain would take a year or two to play out, but it’s imperative to stress-test an investment thesis every quarter to ensure that a price target is still realistic.
So how did Delta fare in the most recent quarter? Not great. Earnings per share (EPS) trailed the consensus forecast by three cents. A 42% spike in fuel costs in the past year gets all the blame. As for all of the costs under Delta’s control, management continues to do an outstanding job.
There are three things you need to know behind the numbers for this stock. First, the entire industry is showing great discipline, trimming the number of planes in service to keep supply below demand. This helped Delta boost the average ticket price by 11% from a year ago. Second, despite what Delta’s results show — EPS declining 17% to $0.91 a share in the third quarter, two cents below forecasts — the carrier is still quite profitable (let’s not forget this has been an environment of depressed demand and higher fuel costs). Third, and more sobering, oil prices have begun to tick higher since this year’s third quarter began. If oil moves past $100 a barrel, then investors will likely start shunning airline stocks anew.
Oil prices appear to be firming in tandem with a perceived imminent resolution of the Greek debt crisis. If a resolution is indeed reached, then could oil prices move up past $100 a barrel? Perhaps, and that’s why I think it’s wise to book the modest profit gained in this stock since late July and wait to see what happens to oil prices. A move back below $90 per barrel and toward the $80 mark — where prices sat just three weeks ago — would quickly renew my ardor for this stock.
2. Xerox (NYSE: XRX)
Sometimes, boring can be beautiful. I profiled this office-equipment giant in early August, and its stock is up 10% since then (against a 10% gain in the S&P 500). Just-released quarterly results clearly confirm the “cash-cow” nature of this business, as it is able to consistently produce ample cash flow through the years. And thanks to a very tight lid on costs, net income jumped from $250 million a year ago to $320 million in the third quarter of 2011. This comes on a tiny 3% gain on sales. The big difference is that Xerox handled its steady volume of business with 2,300 fewer employees than a year ago.
Xerox will never be a high-growth stock, but it sure represents deep value. Let’s run through the numbers…
Backlog orders rose nicely in the third quarter of 2011 compared with the same period last year, especially in the services division, setting the stage for at least 5% revenue growth in 2011 (projected to total $23 billion) and 2012 (projected at $24 billion). More important, the profit forecasts, which are due for an upward revision after this quarter’s earnings release, peg 2012 EPS at around $1.30. Shares trade for just 6.5 times this figure. I think this stock still has 50% upside, as the target multiple moves closer to 10 over the course of 2012.
3. Ford (NYSE: F)
At the start of 2011, shares of Ford almost touched $20, capping a remarkable run that began back in 2008, when they traded for less than $2. That was a high watermark for this stock, and it eventually fell back below $10 in the summer’s market rout. In early August, I took a close look and concluded Ford’s shares looked “screamingly cheap.”
They’re up 9.5% since then (against a 2% gain for the S&P 500). After a fresh look at the company’s quarterly results, which were released Wednesday, Oct. 26, I have a (not so) fresh conclusion: Ford’s shares remain screamingly cheap.
Simply put, Ford continues to generate a hefty amount of cash every quarter, even as broader industry conditions remain lousy. The company earned $1.6 billion in the third quarter, about $38 million down from the same period in 2010 and down 7% from consensus forecasts, but we’re still talking about $1.6 billion.
The stellar profits come on the heels of a bold strategic move that some doubted would work. Back in 2007 and 2008, Ford made major investments to broaden its lineup of small car offerings, realizing that the era of high-margin pickups and SUVs may have peaked. Small cars are notoriously weak profit generators and are often seen as lures to get customers into showrooms where they will (presumably) buy bigger vehicles. Ford’s plan: sell these small cars with lots of high-margin options and accessories. This strategy worked. Ford now makes several thousand dollars per small car, a feat unheard of five or 10 years ago.
That $1.6 billion net profit figure could have been far higher were it not for a $306 million loss in Ford’s European operations. Yes, that hurts, but Ford is actually faring better than rivals, which are retrenching and ceding market share because of the continentwide economic stress. Just this week (Oct. 24), France’s Peugeot announced plans to shrink its manufacturing capacity. When Europe finally rebounds and becomes a profit center for automakers again, Ford is likely to emerge with even greater market share.
Lastly, Ford is now making major inroads in India, Russia and China, smartly tapping into countries that represent that fastest-growing middle classes. Add it all up, and Ford’s management continues to deliver impressive execution, setting the stage for a renewed dividend in 2012. At around six times projected 2012 earnings (in a still-depressed global economic environment), this stock remains far too cheap to ignore and could well revisit the $20 mark when investors finally come to trust the impressive turnaround won’t be derailed.
Risks to Consider: The U.S. and European economies — which are still the most important economic centers in the world — remain in a perilous state. These stocks may not rally much higher until it becomes clear that neither economy will slip into a deep recession in 2012. That’s highly unlikely for the U.S. economy, but still a possibility for Europe.
Action to Take –> These low market valuations continue to be a theme I’ve been discussing for several months now. A number of blue-chip stocks are trading at rock-bottom prices, presenting rare opportunities to secure 40%, 50% or even more upside.
For Delta, high oil prices may impede such a move in the near-term, however, the long-term picture remains bright for all three of these companies, despite what their mid single-digit price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios might tell you. So, yes — all three stocks are still a good “buy.”