VIDEO: Ouch! The 10 Warnings Signs of a Value Trap
Welcome to my latest video presentation for Mind Over Markets. Below is a condensed transcript; my video contains charts and additional details.
We’re seeing a robust stock market rally so far this year. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices have entered bull market territory. The Federal Reserve’s announcement last week of a “pause” in its interest rate tightening cycle has energized investors. The tech-heavy NASDAQ is up more than 30% year to date,
In recent days, I’ve been getting emails from readers, asking if they should seize on any sell-offs over the near term as buying opportunities. I want to answer that question right now, today, while the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) syndrome starts to emerge.
The father of value investing, Benjamin Graham, famously said: “Price is what you pay; value is what you get.”
In this presentation, I’ll show you how to prevent getting burned by cheap stocks that deserve to be cheap.
During this new bull market, should you buy on the dips? Yes, but you must be highly selective. There’s a Wall Street saying: never try to catch a falling knife. A falling investment could rebound. Or it could lose more value. Trying to predict the bottom is like grabbing a knife on its way down. Pain usually ensues.
That said, I don’t dread corrections. Pullbacks can be healthy; they present opportunities to buy inherently valuable stocks on the cheap. But you need to be selective.
Here are 10 signs to help you identify a value trap:
1) The stock is underperforming its entire sector. It’s one thing to decline along with the broader market; it’s another to perform worse than your peers.
2) The company shows a pattern of declining market share. Innovation never stands still. The future belongs to no single company; no competitive advantage is unassailable. Declining market share can turn into an unstoppable death spiral.
3) Over-promising but under-delivering. Quarterly results are where the rubber hits the road. Beware of overly hyped companies with managers that talk a good game but then miss expectations repeatedly.
4) Insufficient cash flow to cover debt expense. The cash ratio helps discern a company’s ability to pay short-term debt obligations. It is calculated by dividing current assets by current liabilities. A ratio higher than one shows a solid chance of paying off debt; a ratio of less than one could indicate an unmanageable debt burden.
5) High levels of insider selling. If corporate insiders are dumping a stock, they know something that the rest of us don’t. It’s a tip-off that the people running the company realize that the stock is about to under-perform the market.
6) Over-dependence on a specific product. Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) made a fortune from its iPod. However, the company last year discontinued the product because it had been superseded by the iPhone. Other companies aren’t as proactive when it comes to fading products that once served as blockbusters.
7) High turnover in the C-suite. When key executives don’t last very long and frequently jump ship, that’s a sign the company is rudderless and about to strike a reef.
8) Consistently trading at low multiples, versus key statistics such as earnings, cash flow, and book value. That’s an indicator of low future promise.
9) Lack of institutional investment. When a stock has high institutional ownership, it’s a vote of confidence from the “smart money.”
10) Dividend reductions. If a company you own has slashed its payout, watch for falling or volatile profitability. Beware of an excessively high dividend yield compared to peers.
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John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily.
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This article originally appeared on Investing Daily.