Olympic Fever: Yet Another Reason to Invest in Brazil
The recent announcement to host the 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janeiro is a major coup for Brazil. Much like the decision to host the 2008 Olympics in China, it is a signal that the country is an economic powerhouse that’s here to stay.
Not to take anything away from the announcement, but compare it to Brazil’s other recent accomplishments. Only seven years ago the country was in an economic quagmire — grappling with hyperinflation, widespread unemployment and crushing debt.
Brazil has gone from the world’s biggest emerging-market debtor to a net foreign creditor. And as you might expect, this stunning economic makeover coincided with a powerful multi-year advance in the nation’s Bovespa stock index.
There’s no doubt Brazil’s improved financial health has bolstered its reputation as one of the world’s most alluring foreign markets. But the country isn’t considered the gem of Latin America for just its credit ratings.
To begin, Brazil has been blessed with a bountiful supply of commodities. Larger in land area than the continental U.S., this agricultural powerhouse produces 25% of the world’s sugar supply and 80% of its orange juice.
As you might expect in the lush rain forests of the Amazon, wood pulp and lumber are also plentiful. Roaming the pastoral regions are 170 million head of cattle — easily the world’s largest commercial herd. Just a couple hundred miles off the coast, a series of game-changing oil discoveries have recently been made.
Estimates place these offshore reserves at roughly 80 billion barrels (enough to dig up four million barrels per day for the next 55 years). As these discoveries come online, Brazil will soon be elevated into the pantheon of oil-producing states. The country has broken free from dependence on foreign oil.
Nearly 80% of Brazil’s electricity is generated by clean hydroelectric power sources, while heavy investments in sugar-based biofuels have weaned drivers off gasoline. In fact, with 30,000 ethanol fueling stations and nothing but flex-fuel vehicles on the roads, Brazil has earned the distinction of being the “Saudi Arabia of ethanol.”
Last year, Brazil exported nearly $200 billion worth of goods overseas. The agricultural harvest alone netted $60 billion in trade surplus. And 2009 is shaping up to be even better.
Demand from China (which has just overtaken the U.S. as Brazil’s top bilateral trading partner) has been particularly rabid. Brazil locked up an agreement to feed China 160,000 barrels of oil per day at market prices.
But don’t make the mistake of assuming that future growth is completely dependent on global commodity demand.
Brazil has a young, well-educated workforce and one of the highest per-capita income rates in Latin America. With annual GDP approaching $2 trillion, it boasts the world’s ninth largest economy, but agribusiness accounts for a relatively small portion of that output — most of it comes from diverse industrial activity and a growing service sector.
During the past couple years; Brazil’s middle class has swelled to more than 20 million people — all with money to spend on discretionary products like dishwashers, DVD players and mobile phones. Not surprisingly, the number of credit cards in use has more than doubled since 2002.
There are several factors pointing to even stronger domestic consumption on the horizon. For starters, interest rates have plunged from above 30% to a record low of 8.75%, making homes and other big-ticket purchases much more affordable.
All of this means there are plenty of attractive investment opportunities outside of Brazil’s well-known commodity plays. Global mining conglomerate Vale (NYSE: VALE) may capture most of the headlines — but it’s more closely tied to steel production in China than anything happening on the ground in Brazil.
Investors who do their homework will find plenty of ADRs issued by profitable, wide-moat leaders in the retail, banking, utilities and telecom sectors that will succeed in the years ahead. But one of the easiest ways to profit from Brazil’s success story is by investing in the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (NYSE: EWZ).
P.S. I recommended EWZ to my Market Advisor readers last December. Anyone who bought it is up +86.7% today — six times richer than if they had invested in the S&P 500.
So how did I find this stock? I use a proprietary “profit catalyst” system that tells me which stocks should rise, and nothing more. I used this system to locate every single stock I currently hold — and it works: 47 out of 54 of them are up. To find out how to be alerted when my system tells me about the next “profit catalyst” stock, go here now.