The “Smart Money” is Selling These 3 Well-Known Stocks. Should You?
The market has been on fire lately. The S&P 500 is up more than 6% so far this year and almost 20% off last June’s lows as it approaches record highs.
Inflows into equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds for January totaled $34.2 billion, the highest since January 1996. This may mean that individual investors have finally returned to the market en masse and are ready to push stocks higher.
But as everyone else is buying, should you be buying too?#-ad_banner-#
Investors with the most intimate insight into the near-term value of corporate America apparently don’t think so. In fact, the last time they were selling this much was in July 2011, just before the debt-ceiling crisis sent stocks down 17% in less than a month. And as we all probably know by now, Congress is working to address the next stage of the “Fiscal Cliff” crisis with a proposed $85 billion in “sequestration” budget cuts.
The U.S. Congressional Budget Office is estimating the so-called sequesters could cost as many as 1 million jobs and send the United States into another recession. Politicians and pundits have already placed fear into consumers, which means next month’s consumer confidence numbers could likely plunge. Many companies have already sent out conditional layoff and furlough notices in a signal that production will be cut to meet weakening demand.
Diversification or a deeper reason?
Confronted with this looming scenario, company insiders have sold 12 stocks for each stock they bought in the past three months. Executives at almost one-third (30.6%) of the S&P 500 companies have sold shares between Feb. 11-15, with sales outnumbering purchases by 17-1, meaning the pressure to sell may be accelerating. When the ratio had been this high in the past, it was followed by an average drop of almost 6% in the overall market.
Keep in mind that there are reasons for insider selling that do not necessarily signal a tumble in corporate profits. With big paydays in stock options and gifts, many insiders need to sell regularly to diversify their wealth. Surely some of the increased selling last December was ahead of the new tax law changes that have hit the mega-rich.
But that alone doesn’t explain the near-record level of selling we are seeing now.
Of the companies that have reported performance for the fourth quarter of 2012, earnings have only come in 3.4% above expectations, which is lower than the 4.2% average seen in the last four quarters.
To make matters worse, 76% of the 95 companies issuing guidance have reported negative earnings guidance, while only 24% have issued positive forecasts for the first quarter of 2013. Analysts have reduced their estimates for earnings growth in all 10 sectors to -0.2% in the first quarter.
As if that were not enough, the recent Italian elections have brought Europe back into the mix, while a private survey of Chinese manufacturers has shown the slowest growth in four months.
The insider exodus is even happening at some of the largest U.S. companies. Here are three stocks with recent, heavy insider trading.
1. Google |
While the rest of the market is touting Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) to reach $1,000 a share, the insiders are cashing in. Insiders at Google have sold 2.55 million shares in the past six months in 110 transactions. Selling was widespread over nine insiders, including the CEO, co-founder and the chairman of the board. |
2. Visa |
The president, executive chairman, CEO and seven other directors at credit card processor Visa (NYSE: V) have sold 1.1 million shares in 20 transactions during the past six months. |
Risks to Consider: The high inflows of retail investors returning to the market might support stock prices for a while and this heavy selling activity now may miss out on some upside gain. Still, retail investors cannot support weakening fundamentals and lack of buying by insiders for long.
Action to Take –> With the run in stock prices during the past few years, it might be time to reevaluate the fundamental strength of stocks in your portfolio. Are the people managing the company as positive as most investors today? By the recent heavy insider-selling activity, the answer is a resounding “No.” If you own any stocks that appear too overvalued, then it may be time to follow the smart money and book profits.