This Unknown Stock is Leading the 3-D Revolution
“Everything is better in 3-D” seems to be the mantra of media these days. It’s not hard to see why. James Cameron’s Academy Award-nominated movie Avatar may have shattered box office records, but it hasn’t been the only 3-D box office success.
Top 10 3-D Movie Releases | ||
Movie Title | Release Date | Total U.S. Box Office |
Avatar | 12/18/09 | $743,767,458 |
Alice in Wonderland | 03/05/10 | $319,380,754 |
Up | 05/29/09 | $293,004,164 |
Monsters vs. Aliens | 03/27/09 | $198,351,526 |
Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs | 07/01/09 | $196,573,705 |
The Polar Express | 11/10/04 | $181,320,482 |
A Christmas Carol | 11/06/09 | $137,855,863 |
Chicken Little | 11/04/09 | $135,386,665 |
How to Train Your Dragon | 03/26/10 | $134,787, 856 |
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs | 09/18/09 | $124,870,275 |
*Source: Boxofficemojo.com |
It’s hard not to geek-out over 3-D if you’re a technophile: the visuals are stunning, the experience immersive. And if the movie is halfway decent, why, that’s just a bonus. Not bad for $15 a ticket. These kinds of box office receipts have breathed new life into the major cinema chains and sent shares soaring. Now that 3-D technology has finally made a lasting mark on the silver screen, “everything is better in 3-D” should be words to live by for investors, too.
One company that seems especially primed to benefit from this sea change is Dolby Labs (NYSE: DLB). Dolby entered the 3-D projection business in 2007, and currently holds about 12% of market share. RealD, a privately held company, holds about 83% of market share. It may seem like RealD has a lock on the market, but there are several factors to consider.
#-ad_banner-#Demand for 3-D screens is surging. At the end of 2009, there were slightly more than 3,000 3-D screens in the United States — 388 of them using Dolby projectors. But the company shipped more than 800 units alone in the first quarter of 2010 ending in January. The pie is also getting bigger: industry experts predict there could be as many as 15,000 3-D screens worldwide by the end of the year (roughly double the current number) and Dolby already has a significant share of the global market.
There’s only one problem: Outfitting a single screen to show 3-D movies can turn into a $100,000 affair. The upfront cost for Dolby’s projectors is slightly more expensive than RealD’s (about $26,000 vs. about $20,000), but Dolby’s projection technology allows theater operators to show both traditional 2-D and 3-D movies without having to spend money on a special silver screen for 3-D.
And you can’t have a 3-D movie without the glasses. Dolby faces a challenge in this area. RealD uses disposable glasses that cost about a dollar. Dolby’s glasses aren’t disposable and cost about $17.50. The company claims its 3-D glasses can be cleaned in-house and reused hundreds of times, thus lowering the cost. But it presents a marketing challenge nonetheless. Dolby must convince theater operators that its 3-D projection kits are cheaper in the long-run in order to gain business and continue growing. Given Dolby’s sterling reputation for innovation and technical savvy, that shouldn’t be a problem.
Revenue from 3-D projectors is already propelling growth at Dolby. The majority of revenue comes from licensing Dolby’s patented audio and home theater technologies, but about $47.7 million, or 21%, of $221 million in total revenue came from “product sales” in the first quarter of fiscal 2010, compared with just $17.9 million, or 9%, a year earlier. Most of these product sales are 3-D projectors. Revenue from this segment has more than doubled in a year and could be in the beginning stages of a long-term growth phase. More than 40 movies are expected to release in 3-D within the next three years compared to just a handful in 2008, so demand isn’t going to dry up soon.
Movie studios and theater chains may be gearing up for 3-D, but this is just the tip of the iceberg for Dolby. Companies like Panasonic (NYSE: PC) and Sony (NYSE: SNE) are making forays into 3-D televisions as well. The cable networks are getting involved too: ESPN is planning to showcase up to 25 World Cup soccer matches on a special 3-D channel along with a total of 85 sporting events in 2010 and a coalition of Discovery Communications (Nasdaq: DISCA), Imax (Nasdaq: IMAX) and Sony also have plans to launch an as-yet unnamed 3-D network in 2011.
This is the real wild card for Dolby. A 3-D television (with 3-D programming) becoming the next “necessity” for every home theater could mean tremendous upside for the company. Not only could Dolby use its experience in 3-D technology in this space, but the home theater market get a boost as a whole.
The 3-D TV transition is still several years away, however. For one thing, 3-D TVs are expensive (north of $2,000, to be exact). It will also take cable providers and networks some time to roll out 3-D networks (they haven’t even finished rolling out high-definition channels yet).
At 29 times earnings, Dolby’s shares appear expensive, but are actually in line with their long-term average. The company has few direct competitors, and has a unique business model of licensing, which makes for an almost-unheard-of operating margin of 47%. Given these factors, it’s understandable why investors would place a premium on the shares. Dolby’s stock is up +68% year-to-date, but appears to be on a long-term winning streak. As the 3-D revolution takes form, expect Dolby to create an irreplaceable and highly profitable niche for itself.