This Hot Financial Stock Still Has 70% Upside
When stocks run up several-fold or more, their valuation metrics typically reflect the gain in a big way.
Take the wildly popular automaker Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: TSLA). In the five years since the stock began trading on the Nasdaq, it’s up almost 900%, making it nearly a 10-bagger.
The company is still losing money (it’s in the red by $0.62 a share during the past 12 months), so it has no price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to evaluate. But other commonly used valuation measures are looking quite ugly in Tesla’s case, and I think it’s safe to say the stock is horribly overvalued.
However, that’s not the case at all for another stock that has matched Tesla’s gain, which has also soared 900% during the past five years. But despite this, shares of the company are still very reasonably valued relative to its industry and the broader market.
#-ad_banner-#I’m referring to the well-known insurance and wealth management firm Genworth Financial (NYSE: GNW). Even though Genworth is up as much as Tesla, it’s far from overpriced, and I think it’s a much better investment at this point.
Part of the reason the stock was able to post such amazing growth without trashing valuations was it fell so far during the housing crisis, dropping from a high of $36 a share in mid-2007 to just over $1 in late 2008. In Genworth’s case, the sell-off was particularly severe because of the decimation of its U.S. mortgage insurance operations, which went on to post $1.4 billion in losses from the start of the crisis to mid-2011. In the worst year of the crisis for Genworth, 2008, the firm lost $1.32 per share overall after earning an average of $2.61 a share for the prior four years.
However, it has since comeback solidly, returning to profitability in 2010 with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.29. From there, profits have soared 57% a year to their current level of $1.12 a share.
The return to profitability might have happened sooner had it not been for the lagging U.S. mortgage insurance unit. That segment finally got back into the black in the first half of 2013 following five straight years of losses totaling $2 billion. For the fourth quarter of 2013, it posted a $6 million operating profit, compared with an operating loss of $32 million a year earlier.
This is a particularly sweet victory for Genworth, which took intense heat for years from high-profile investors who repeatedly called for the firm to sell its U.S. mortgage insurance unit. But management refused, insisting returns on policies sold more recently would outweigh losses on sketchy coverage issued before the housing crisis. Obviously, they were right.
And even though the housing market has weakened in recent months (housing prices and new and existing home sales have fallen off significantly, for example), I’m not too concerned. Many analysts attribute the decline mainly to the harsh winter. So Genworth’s mortgage insurance unit will be well-positioned to continue its recovery as warmer weather sets in and the number of house hunters increases, prompting greater demand for mortgage insurance.
Besides the U.S. mortgage unit’s resurgence, a couple other catalysts should help generate greater profits for Genworth in coming years. One is a revamping of the firm’s long-term care insurance (LTC), which was typically profitable but has struggled recently because of rising medical costs and longer lifespans leading to more claims than expected. To address these issues, Genworth has been raising premiums, hedging its risks through reinsurance, and scaling back coverage.
These measures appear to be working: Operating profits from LTC insurance jumped sixfold in the fourth quarter of 2013 from the previous year, to $42 million.
Fixed annuities are also pretty big business for Genworth, and profits there have been spiking, too, as people increasingly seek reliable retirement income sources. In the fourth quarter, for example, fixed annuities generated operating profits of $21 million, a 31% gain from the $16 million they contributed in the fourth quarter of 2012.
Risks to Consider: Over time, rising long-term care costs could make LTC insurance unaffordable for more people and in turn reduce demand for the product. Substantial mortgage insurance operations in Canada and Australia also expose Genworth to any housing market difficulties in those countries.
Action to Take –> Genworth has come a long way since the financial crisis, and this should set its stock up for more attractive growth in the next couple years. With the turnaround progressing nicely, the company is capable of meeting analyst estimates for EPS to jump 38% this year and 16% in 2015. At the historical earnings multiple of 17, this implies nearly 70% upside from the current stock price of $18 to about $30.50 in 2015.
While quite reasonably priced relative to trailing 12-month EPS, shares look downright cheap on a forward basis, trading for just 11.6 times 2014’s projected earnings and 10 times 2015’s projected earnings. Thus, there isn’t the issue of waiting for a better entry point like you’d typically see with other 10-baggers. So anyone thinking of investing in Genworth can still get an attractive deal on its stock right now.
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