Why Trouble In Ukraine Could Lead To 40% Upside
In today’s essay, I want to tell you a story about trust and opportunity.
You see, when I’m not researching and writing for my premium newsletter, High-Yield International, I also spend time as an independent investment advisor.
In that role, to put it bluntly, I make my living by taking clients from big banks.
#-ad_banner-#Over the years I have battled all the big names: Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, J.P. Morgan and Northwestern Mutual, to name a few.
A recent engagement had me pitted against one of the giants, which shall remain nameless.
When I got on the phone with him to discuss his portfolio, I said, “You are going to learn more from me in the next five minutes than you’ve learned from these guys in the last year.”
I heard an awkward chuckle on the other end of the line. But I was completely serious.
Five minutes later he wasn’t laughing. In fact, he was enraged.
I explained to him that he was:
— Overallocated to bonds.
— Paying high fees in mutual funds.
— In mutual funds that were underperforming the market.
— Paying high advisor and execution fees.
— Not using special strategies, portfolio analysis or performance updates.
The secret string that I pulled was trust. In one swift motion, by pointing out how his interests weren’t being served, the trust he had in his advisor was destroyed. And once that sacred element of trust has been compromised, capital is quick to follow.
Less than a week later, he had fled his advisor — and I had myself a new client.
The same sacred relationship between trust and capital is playing out in the global market right now.
In my role as Chief Investment Strategist for High-Yield International, my job is to point readers to opportunities in overseas markets, where dividend yields typically far outpace that of U.S. equities, and growth is much stronger. I’m not aware of any major newsletter in the country that covers this topic. And given that many solid foreign dividend payers trade right here on U.S. exchanges, it’s easy to find them and profit.
Buying stocks based in foreign markets requires that countries operate within the context of their own laws as well as international laws. This provides a foundation for stability and transparency — socially, politically and financially. This is the case with virtually every single investment opportunity we cover in High-Yield International.
But when a country deviates from those parameters, investors’ trust is eroded. Capital flees.
That’s exactly what’s happening in Russia right now.
After Russia sent troops into Crimea, the Russian stock market responded by plummeting more than 10% on March 3. And that was on the heels of the Russian market already trading at one of the lowest valuations in the world, at around five times earnings.
The epic one-day plunge and record-low stock valuation say a lot about the market’s view on Russia. I share this view.
I don’t trust Russian companies with my money or yours. The country is plagued by corruption, both politically and economically. I don’t view its billionaire oligarchs and state-controlled energy companies as warm places for international capital.
That’s one reason I’ve strategically avoided Russia, with both my clients and subscribers.
But it’s not just the Russian stock market that is being affected. This latest flare-up is also sending shock waves through the global energy and agriculture markets.
As you probably know, Russia is a major supplier of both crude and natural gas to Europe.
Any disruptions in Russia’s ability to quench Europe’s thirst for energy could send regional and global energy prices soaring.
That could come as a result of economic sanctions.
There’s no question that imposing economic sanctions on Russia would inflict collateral damage on Europe. A report from Goldman Sachs projects that sanctions on Russian natural gas could lift prices in Europe 35% to 40%.
Outside of a peaceful resolution, military escalation would pose a huge threat to Ukraine’s pipeline system. If a key pipeline were sabotaged or taken offline for any extended period of time, Europe’s ability to meet its energy needs would be compromised.
Disruptions in the global energy market are bullish for crude and natural gas prices. And my High-Yield International portfolio is well-positioned to cash in on that potential bullish trend.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is also shaking global agriculture markets. Both countries are major exporters of agriculture. In fact, Ukraine is nicknamed “the breadbasket of Europe.” According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the two countries account for 10% of global wheat production, 17% of wheat exports and 18% of global coarse grains such as corn and barley.
When word hit the Street that Russia had entered Crimea, agriculture prices immediately jumped higher as the market priced in production and trade concerns.
U.S. wheat futures jumped 4.6% on March 3, the biggest single-day gain in 17 months. Corn hit a new five-month high. Take a look at the big jump in the PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (NYSE: DBA), which holds a basket of agriculture commodities such as corn, beans and wheat. Now shares are just off their 52-week high.
Those big gains were driven by speculation that traders and buyers in the physical (cash) markets would direct business away from Ukraine due to increased political risk, essentially muting the country’s total production.
Looking forward, I expect grain buyers to continue steering business away from Ukraine as it becomes more expensive and difficult to do business with a country in the throes of a major conflict.
It’s yet another reason why I’m bullish on agriculture. In fact, in a previous issue of my newsletter, I outlined why I think drought conditions in California, Russia and Brazil are setting the stage for higher agriculture prices this year. The last time we saw conditions like this in 2012, the iPath DJ-UBS Grain ETN (NYSE: JJG), a security that tracks the price of corn, soybeans and wheat, jumped more than 40% in a few weeks when the reality of the drought started hitting the market.
Now, two years later, I believe that same cycle is about to repeat itself. The uncertain situation revolving around Crimea is just yet another catalyst that could send prices higher.
Out of fairness to my subscribers, I can’t share my absolute favorite pick on this trend with you today. (It’s a global fertilizer producer paying a best-in-class dividend that is set to rise even further.) But for those who are interested, the PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (NYSE: DBA) and the iPath DJ-UBS Grain ETN (NYSE: JJG) are both worth considering.
I’ll be monitoring the global agriculture markets closely in High-Yield International in the months ahead. If history repeats itself — and I think it will — then investors could make a nice profit in agriculture commodities this year.
P.S. — I mentioned earlier that I recently shared my favorite agriculture pick with my High-Yield International readers. To put it simply, I think this stock’s safe dividend and low valuation could do well for investors even if my bullish call on commodities doesn’t play out this year. If I’m right, it could do even better. To find out more about the kinds of safe, high-yielding opportunities we’re finding each month in my premium newsletter, including how we found 93 companies paying 12%-plus yields overseas, go here to learn more.