The Best Value Stock You’ve Never Heard Of
Rarely a day goes without someone in the financial media claiming there’s a stock bubble about to burst and set off an even worse crisis than the last one.
#-ad_banner-#Now, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see a harsh pullback in the short term, but I don’t get the sense a major crash is at hand. And I think all the bubble talk is way overgeneralized.
While the market as a whole may be pretty pricey right now, there are still plenty of attractive values out there. But because of the long-running bull market, they’re just a little harder to find.
But I think I’ve found one.
I doubt most investors would recognize the name of this company even though it can trace its roots back nine decades. But I bet they’d know its products — raw and processed nuts of all sorts from peanuts, cashews and pecans to walnuts, macadamias and almonds. The firm sells other food products, too, like trail mixes, salad toppings, dried fruit and peanut butter. It has some top brands, including Fisher and Orchard Valley Harvest.
The company, John B. Sanfilippo & Son (Nasdaq: JBSS), is one of the largest publicly traded nut processors in the world with annual sales of $743 million.
JBSS has been doing very well, growing sales by more than 9% a year and net income by nearly 15% annually for the past several years. Market share is very healthy and ranges from 12% to almost 20% depending on the type of nut. Revenues are easily at all-time highs.
Yet investors haven’t seemed to take much notice.
At about $23, the stock is trading for barely 12 times trailing earnings per share (EPS) of $1.98. That’s far less than the packaged food industry’s average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of nearly 18. JBSS has a forward P/E of just 8.
It’s possible some investors are avoiding the stock because they remember the leaner times of 2006 through 2008, when JBSS posted three straight years of losses totaling $3.21 a share and saw its stock drop 58%. Or it may simply be that investors are preoccupied with other things like the recent tumult in biotech, tension between Russia and Ukraine, and Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) major earnings beat (which my colleague David Sterman covered last week).
Whatever the reason JBSS is being passed over, I strongly recommend investors take some time to acquaint themselves with the stock. At current prices, it’s an excellent bargain with very attractive upside on the order of 70%.
A major catalyst for JBSS is growing recognition of the health benefits of many of its products. Indeed, studies have recently shown most nuts consumed in moderation (1.5 ounces per day) and as part of a diet low in saturated fat and cholesterol can reduce the risk of heart disease. What’s more, last February the American Heart Association certified nine Fisher-brand products containing pecans, walnuts and almonds as “heart healthy.”
These will be major selling points as management works to keep JBSS on a solid growth track, and they go hand in hand with plans to expand the company’s retail presence with smaller grab-and-go packages that will make it easier for consumers to achieve moderation. There should be plenty of opportunities to take the positive health angle with Fisher products in particular, since that brand sponsors the Food Network and is plugged on the show and in its magazine.
The brand has been picking up steam recently. For example, it saw per-pound nut volumes soar 22% in the second quarter.
Things have been tougher for Orchard Valley Harvest, which saw volumes shrink 27% during the second quarter mainly because of a one-time promotion. However, this is likely only a temporary setback because long-term efforts to build the brand are beginning to bear fruit. For instance, distribution rose about 20% during the first half of fiscal 2014 as JBSS added new retailers for Orchard Valley Harvest. What’s more, unit sales velocity, a measure of the rapidity of product sales, jumped 1.4% in the first half of fiscal 2014.
As a domestically focused operation, JBSS could benefit greatly from international expansion since its products unquestionably have global appeal. So I think it’s wise that management plans to increase the company’s international presence, with a particular focus on Eastern Europe, Asia and the Middle East.
JBSS displays solid financial strength with six straight years of positive free cash flow, current assets near a decade high of $224 million, and a low debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.2. Since 2008, the company has slashed short- and long-term debt by more than 42% from $132 million to the current level of $76 million.
Risks to Consider: JBSS’s five largest customers — which include Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Target (NYSE: TGT) and PepsiCo. (NYSE: PEP) — account for 56% of the company’s sales. The loss of any one of the top 5 could seriously harm profitability.
Action to Take –> JBSS has a long history of success and is in a solid business with strong growth prospects, yet it’s overlooked and undervalued. Once the market realizes this, I wouldn’t be surprised to see investors pay at least twice book value ($19.62 a share) for the stock, versus the 1.2 times they’re currently paying — especially since the industry average price-to-book ratio is already 4.3. This implies about 70% upside for JBSS from the current stock price of about $23.
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