Would Buffett Approve Of Your Portfolio?
Once a year, Warren Buffett and his right-hand man, Charlie Munger, take the stage of a packed arena for Berkshire Hathaway’s (NYSE: BRK-B) annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska.
#-ad_banner-#Held last Saturday, this year’s event drew a crowd of some 40,000 shareholders, financial journalists and analysts who had the chance to pick the brain of the Oracle and his vice chairman.
A wide breadth of topics were covered — but what might they mean for your portfolio?
Let’s start with a perennial question that has particular relevance if you’re a Berkshire stakeholder: When will Berkshire Hathaway pay a dividend? The company has not made a cash payout since 1967. So will 2014 be the year?
“Don’t hold your breath” seems to be the collective notion from the shareholders who voted on the issue, as only 3% were in favor. There’s an overwhelming preference for excess cash reserves to be allocated for future investments, rather than making distributions.
However, if you’re still craving a Berkshire-related dividend fix — and really, who isn’t? — you can look to some of its higher-yielding portfolio companies like Proctor & Gamble (NYSE: PG) or General Electric (NYSE: GE), which each pay better than 3%.
Turning toward the economy, Buffett’s take on housing might make some investors tepid, as he is somewhat backpedaling from his initial bullish posture. Despite having his hand in nearly every step of the homeownership supply chain — from mortgage issuers and brokers (as my colleague Dave Goodboy recently wrote) to builders to paint and carpeting companies — Buffett said that “housing is not that strong yet; I’m surprised by that.”
Does that mean it’s time to hunt for homebuilder ETFs to short? Possibly, although sitting on the sidelines may be the better move.
Another prevalent talking point revolved around the recent performance of railroad holding BNSF, which delivered disappointing performance this past quarter. Weather-related disruptions, congestion and other service challenges weighed on the operator, but Buffett made his confidence clear. He said he could spend “many, many billions” to bolster operations, considering that BNSF has made significant headway in the buzzing oil-by-rail business.
As many oil and gas companies are discovering, it can be more economical to transport commodities by rail rather than build pipelines, which has translated into impressive stock appreciation for those railways with networks all over North America. Check out Canadian Pacific (NYSE: CP) and Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) for examples of some outstanding performers in that industry.
Berkshire also recently changed the name of its energy utility MidAmerican Energy to Berkshire Hathaway Energy, outlining plans to spend as much as $100 billion in the sector over the next 10 to 15 years. The company has already made multiple purchases in the past 12 months, including Nevada-based NV Energy and Alberta-based AltaLink.
Since no specific targets were hinted at, we can only guess where that money will land. One interesting prospect is the $11.4 billion electricity company NRG Energy (NYSE: NRG). Buffett purchased a 49% stake in a solar power plant owned by NRG in 2011, although expecting a further joining of the two companies would be speculation at best.
Berkshire will continue to push forward in both solar and wind renewable energy. The company has already spent $5.4 billion to build three of the largest solar energy plants in the world. SunPower (Nasdaq: SPRW) and First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR) lent their expertise in constructing those projects. First Solar announced an earnings surprise this week, beating analysts’ EPS expectations by more than double and guiding higher for 2014. SunPower issued a beat on both earnings and revenue in late-April as well.
On the wind energy side, Buffett was succinct about his intentions: “We get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That’s the only reason to build them.” His interest in lowering Berkshire’s tax liabilities gives some perspective as to why Berkshire Hathaway Energy is the top generator of wind energy in the U.S. As long as regulations remain favorable, regions like the Midwest, Texas and the Pacific coast (California, Oregon) will likely see larger wind farm investment.
Risks to Consider: Buffett’s words are often taken as scripture in the investing world — but his access to capital, his investing horizon (forever, typically), and his ability to purchase entire companies do not always translate well for the smaller investor. Keep this in mind before trying to mimic the Oracle.
Action to Take –> Individual plays and trades to profit off of Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting would be an exercise in educated guesstimation, but acknowledging the larger trends mentioned are a great reason to take a closer look at your portfolio. As for those holding BRK stock? Stay the course, as Buffett has done himself decade after decade. Most would argue it has served him decently well.
P.S. Warren Buffett’s preferred timetable for holding stocks is “forever” — so he’d surely approve of our portfolio of “Forever Stocks.” These are world-dominating companies that pay investors a fat dividend, dig a deep moat around their business to fend off competitors, and buy back massive amounts of stock, boosting the value for the rest of the shares. They’re stocks solid enough to buy, forget about and hold… forever. To learn more about these stocks — including some of their names and ticker symbols — click here.