This Multi-Billionaire Just Invested $25 Million In This Unloved Commodity

The super-rich are not like the rest of us. People like Warren Buffett and Bill Gates take on mythic status. As they build fortunes that exceed the Gross Domestic Product of many countries, every one of their financial moves is tracked as investors seek out the secrets to their success.

South of the border, in Mexico, a man who has already amassed a net worth of more than $15 billion by focusing on commodities, is creating quite a buzz that investors may seek to replicate. He’s spending millions of dollars every week to build his exposure to one of the most controversial commodities: Copper.

The man in question is Germán Larrea Mota-Velasco, who controls Grupo Mexico, the third-largest copper mining firm in the world. Yet Mota-Velasco’s recent focus is on another miner that he also controls: Southern Copper Corp. (NYSE: SCCO).

This is where things get complicated. Grupo Mexico owns 75% of Southern Copper and Mota-Velasco is spending some of his personal fortune to acquire part of the remaining 25% of Southern Copper that is still in the public float. Clearly, he sees greater near-term upside in the affiliate than the parent. Just look at his buying spree.

Date Number of Shares Purchased Average Purchase Price Total Dollar Value (mill.)
7/30 170,000 $32.74 $5.566
7/31 100,000 $32.87 $3.287
8/21 100,000 $31.36 $3.136
8/26 45,000 $32.46 $1.462
8/28 155,000 $32.46 $5.031
9/2 50,000 $32.56 $1.628
9/9 100,000 $31.89 $3.189
9/10 50,000 $31.53 $1.576
      $24.875
Source: InsiderInsights.com

Mota-Velsaco’s $25 million investment comes at a very unusual time. The price of copper has been making lower highs and lower lows for more than two years and blame goes to China. That country has slowed its massive building spree and also sought to reduce its stockpile of stored copper.

You would suspect that Mota-Velasco is being foolish, throwing good money after a bad investment. But you don’t amass billions of wealth by making that kind of mistake. Instead, a deeper look at copper fundamentals explains why this industry expert is increasing his exposure.

Uncertain demand, weak supply

To be sure, trying to get a handle on copper demand can be tricky. If the Chinese economy forestalls a deep slump and/or the U.S. housing sector starts to build of steam in 2015 and 2016, then demand for copper may be quite robust. It’s too soon to know.

#-ad_banner-#​Yet we do have a pretty clear sense of the supply side of the equation. The International Copper Study Group provided an industry snapshot last month that examined supply and demand trends through the first five months of 2014 and concluded that demand exceeded supply by 466,000 metric tons, compared to a 251,000 metric ton copper surplus in 2013. Part of the turnaround is attributable to a 15% year-over-year gain in demand.

After assessing that report, analysts at Morgan Stanley concluded that, “Given this wide supply shortfall, we remain comfortable with our forecast for deficit conditions this year and next, as well as progressively higher prices.”

So what does Southern Copper have to say about the supply-demand picture? CEO Raul Jacobs met in late August with analysts at Brazil’s Itau/BBA and noted that the supply of copper coming to market should to start to materially decrease beginning in 2006. That highlights a notion that Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. (NYSE: FCX) and other copper miners have all been noting: The world’s most easily accessible copper mines are getting tapped out, and it’s becoming difficult to find new mines that can produce sufficient copper quantities at a reasonable cost.

Meanwhile, Southern Copper is fortunate enough to have bought the rights to new mines with solid economics. That sets the stage for an impressive revenue ramp. Southern Copper is on track to generate roughly $6 billion in revenue this year, though that figure is expected to climb to $8 billion in 2016 and $10 billion in 2018. Equally impressive: earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization are projected to rise from $2.7 billion this year to $4.1 billion in 2018. Notably, those assumptions are pegged off an expectation that copper prices won’t budge from the current $3.10 per pound level.

Sales and profit trajectory are some of the reasons that makes Southern Copper “our top pick in the LatAm Mining sector,” write the analysts at Itau/BBA. Their $39 price target represents roughly 20% upside. If the demand side of the equation turns higher, perhaps due to an upturn in U.S. housing construction, then copper prices — and industry profit forecasts — will move steadily higher.

Risks to Consider: China is the big risk. The Chinese government has repeatedly moved to bolster the economy and, in turn copper demand. It appears as if growth is slowing gradually, but a sharp and uncontained slowdown would hurt copper prices.

Action to Take–> This is an impressive amount of insider buying, perhaps one of the largest in terms of dollar volume for all of 2014. It’s a contrarian move in light of flagging copper prices, but  Mota-Velasco has a long industry track record and deep industry visibility. His insider buying points the way to value in this unloved commodity. You may want to follow his lead and follow his lead into SCCO.

Mota-Velasco is betting big on copper and Southern Copper Corp., but that isn’t the only commodities play that could prove lucrative. Forbes, Barron’s and almost every other financial media source has failed to discover what could be the world’s first $1 trillion boomtown situated in the center of massive new oil and gas deposits. Several oil and resource mining companies are poised to make billions from this under-the-radar hotspot, including one that’s up 1,500% in the past year. To get access to some of the stock names and ticker symbols I’m recommending, follow this link.