Forget Alibaba, Here’s The Best Chinese Internet Stock To Own
The September 19 initial public offering of Chinese internet giant Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA) was every bit the extravaganza analysts predicted. And there’s a good chance that, in the long run, Alibaba shareholders will be well rewarded.
Like many Chinese stocks, though, Alibaba is extra risky because of its variable interest entity (VIE) structure. With a VIE, foreign investors are really buying shares in a separate organization that isn’t the actual Alibaba, but an offshore holding company controlled mainly by Alibaba’s founder and CEO Jack Ma.
#-ad_banner-#The bottom line: Foreign investors don’t directly own Alibaba, and the VIE format can be used in ways that aren’t necessarily in the best interests of shareholders without their consent. With Alibaba, I’d be especially concerned about this because Ma has left no doubt that shareholders are third on his list of priorities, behind customers and employees.
What’s more, he has already shown a willingness to put shareholders third, like in 2011 when a valuable asset — Alipay, the Chinese PayPal — was moved out of Alibaba. Yahoo! Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO), Alibaba’s second-largest shareholder with a 22.5% stake, complained the transfer took it completely by surprise. According to Alibaba, the transfer was necessary for compliance with Chinese laws prohibiting foreign ownership.
Without access to corporate records and documents for Alibaba and Alipay, who knows? But what appears to be the case is Alibaba can make major moves without input from major foreign shareholders, let alone individual investors like you and I.
Fortunately, though, Alibaba isn’t the only choice for investors seeking fast growth from a Chinese stock. Indeed, considering recent events, they may want to shift their attention to another great Chinese firm with a long history of operating as a VIE while delivering astounding shareholder returns.
What makes this company a safer bet? The founders and top executives own significant stakes in the offshore entity, reducing the risk of a significant dispute between it and the actual onshore company, points out Moody’s analyst Lina Choi. A large portion of the firm’s cash flow resides at the offshore entity, which increases foreign investors’ protection, Choi adds.
If you’re an avid do-it-yourself investor, you’ve likely heard of the firm I’m referring to — Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU), which was founded in 2000 and is often called “The Google of China.”
It has certainly earned the title. With a top line of nearly $6.4 billion a year (obtained mainly through advertising), Baidu is easily China’s top search engine by revenue. Based on usage, it has an impressive 63% market share.
What’s more, of China’s 470 million active search engine users, 86% say Baidu is their favorite, according to Morningstar. Baidu’s stock is up more than 1,650% — about 37% a year — since its Nasdaq debut in 2005.
Although having such a massive market share might typically indicate a lack of room for much more growth, that’s not the case with Baidu. Yes, there are already an estimated 630 million internet users in China right now, but that’s only about a 46% penetration rate.
Plus, user ranks are swelling and could climb as high as 800 million by the end of next year, analysts say. Assuming no major changes in Baidu’s market share or popularity, the number of Chinese search engine users saying Baidu is #1 could far exceed 600 million at that point.
Basically, Baidu has become a juggernaut and will therefore be extremely hard to beat. Its nearest competitor Qihoo (NYSE: QIHU), for instance, has only 20%-to-25% of China’s search engine market, and at this point its search results don’t measure up to Baidu’s in terms of the amount or quality of the information generated.
Because people on the go in particular want good information quick, that’s a key disadvantage in China’s ballooning mobile search market, of which Baidu controls a whopping 57%. Because of this, mobile search generated more than 30% of Baidu’s revenue for the first time in Q2. Yet its contribution will likely rise even higher in coming years, since China’s mobile search market is projected to approach $100 billion in 2017, up nearly 1,900% from almost $5 billion in 2011.
With a strong balance sheet, large cash hoard and excellent free cash flow, Baidu can comfortably continue to make the investments necessary to maintain and even increase its dominance of the mobile and nonmobile search markets. In fact, annual R&D expenditures are approaching $900 million, compared with barely $115 million just four years ago. According to management, the firm plans to focus on search and mapping apps for tablets and smartphones, among other things.
Risks to Consider: It doesn’t seem likely, but there’s at least a slim chance of the Chinese government someday invalidating the VIE structure, since VIEs were created to circumvent Chinese law. In that case, foreign investments could be partially or fully at risk. And while Baidu is head-and-shoulders above the competition, rivals have managed to chip away at its market share, which has slipped from about 72% at the end of 2012.
Action to Take –> Since investors in Chinese stocks are generally going to have to live with the risks of VIE ownership, they should consider Baidu because of its excellent record and better alignment with foreign shareholder interests. Although its projected earnings per share growth of 36% a year is actually a noticeable slowdown from the 58% growth rate of the previous five years, upside remains very attractive and could even be on the order of 250% through 2019.
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