3 Stocks Thriving In A Delicate Market

One smart way to screen for stocks is to find the ones that are still going up when most other stocks are going down.

These are stocks with investors who have strong conviction about the true value of the company and don’t get scared amid a declining market.

#-ad_banner-#These stocks are often conspicuous — when looking at a heat map of the S&P 500 on a down day, they are the few green dots in a sea of red.

In that vein, I found three promising stocks that managed to finish in the green for the first half of October, despite the volatility that roiled the broader market from top to bottom.

The three are the kinds of companies that typically prosper later in an economic cycle, and each are components of the Barron’s 400 Index, a gauge of promising U.S. companies that tends toward a growth-at-a-reasonable-price (GARP) bent.

Snap-on, Inc. (NYSE: SNA)
Snap-on’s product lineup — in the industrial machinery category — includes hand and power tools, diagnostics and shop equipment for professional markets, including vehicle dealerships, repair centers, aviation and the military.

The company has 4,800 mobile stores nationwide. A novel model, mobile stores are trucks or vans stocked with equipment that travel to their customers — many of which are operated by franchisees.

Snap-on may have its roots in the heartland in Kenosha, Wisconsin, but it now operates in 130 countries. The company reported stellar earnings this month, with organic sales gains across all operating segments, accompanied by a 23.1% increase in earnings per share, handily beating analyst estimates. The results showed an unexpectedly solid trajectory in Europe despite its slowing economy and further confounded skeptics with strong results from military contracts despite reduced government spending. Shares have risen 5.54% since the beginning of October.

WABCO Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: WBC)
WABCO makes products for commercial truck, trailer, bus and passenger car manufacturers worldwide. The company reports Q3 earnings on October 24. Shares have risen 8.66% this month ahead of its October 24 Q3 results announcement, a sign of buyer optimism.

This company gets about 60% of its revenues in stagnant Europe, but remarkably that has not been a drag on its reliable growth. WABCO has estimated its products are included in about two-thirds of commercial vehicles with advanced control systems such as air disc brakes.

It helps that the average age for the European truck fleet is 7.5 years — quite old, by industry standards. When a commercial vehicle is worn out, it has to be replaced regardless of the macroeconomic environment.

WABCO has seen growth in China and India weaken of late, but the company forecasts significant potential in the United States, where it collects only about 11% of its revenues and therefore has lots of potential market share upside.


O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. (Nasdaq: ORLY)
O’Reilly comes closest to the consumer of the three stocks mentioned. It is one of the largest specialty retailers of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment and accessories in the United States. It serves both professional service providers and do-it-yourself customers, specializing in the unglamorous stuff under the automotive hood, ranging from alternators and fuel pumps to belts and hoses.

O’Reilly has been pursuing a strategy of rapid store expansion, with a goal of 200 new stories in 2014.​ The company currently has more than 4,000 stores in 42 states.

O’Reilly beat analyst Q2 EPS estimates with $1.91 a share, a 20.9% hike in from the year-ago period. That profit growth came on a healthy 7% gain in revenues, including a 5.1% increase in comparable store sales. Like WABCO, O’Reilly’s shares have been climbing as its October 22 Q3 earnings reporting date approaches — rising 5.68% since the start of October. Again, this is generally regarded as a sign of investor optimism.

And investors have a reason to be optimistic. O’Reilly has an aggressive share buyback program that it has increased twice in 2014 to $4.5 billion. The company recently boosted full-year EPS guidance to the $7.00-to-$7.10 range from the previous $6.82-to-$6.92. O’Reilly also hiked its 2014 free cash flow estimate to the $625 million-to-$675 million range, up substantially from the previous $580 million-to-$620 million range.

Analysts in the aggregate are optimistic about the prospects of all three stocks. Fidelity’s Equity Score Summary gives all three a “Bullish” rating, and the latest First Call survey consensus rates all three a “Buy.”

Risks To Consider: Snap-on already reported solid Q3 earnings this month, but WABCO and O’Reilly Automotive report in the coming week. If for some reason they meet estimates but still experience profit-taking, then investors who buy ahead of their results could feel a short-term squeeze. WABCO could potentially come up skimpy on revenues if the slowdown in Europe is more exaggerated than expected. O’Reilly could stumble in its ongoing acquisition strategy that has been a strategic growth component.

Actions To Take –> Snap-on is a known quantity with quarterly results out of the way, and appears to have room to go higher. Analyst consensus is high on WABCO and O’Reilly Automotive, but cautious investors may want to wait until after their results are known. These steady growers are unlikely to get too far ahead of the patient investors.

Another strong method for finding profitable companies amid market turmoil is to look for shareholder-friendly firms. StreetAuthority has a method of finding these stocks by looking at their “Total Yield” — a measure of dividend yields, stock repurchases and share buybacks. Since 1982, the stocks with the highest Total Yields have returned an average of 15%. For more information about Total Yield stocks, click here.