3 Companies Trading At A Discount Despite Stellar Earnings
In a perfectly efficient market, companies that deliver positive quarterly results and outlooks for future quarters will rally higher, and companies that deliver subpar results fall in value. But earnings season can be overwhelming, as thousands of companies hold conference calls in a multi-week span, that most investors need additional time to process what they have just seen and heard.
#-ad_banner-#That spells opportunity for fast-moving investors. If you can spot good companies, with solid operating momentum, before the crowd takes notice, then you can be positioned for solid upside. Here are three stocks that delivered a “beat and raise” quarter — meaning they exceeded Q3 results and also issued a bullish forward view — that have yet to see share prices rally higher.
TRI Pointe Homes, Inc. (NYSE: TPH)
It’s an old business maxim that the best time to launch a new business is when its industry is in turmoil. That creates an opportunity to dislocate the entrenched market share leaders, at a time when those leaders are retrenching. That explains why Starwood Capital’s Barry Sternlicht, known mostly for building upscale hotels, decided to enter the housing market in 2009, through the creation of Tri Point Homes.
But Sternlicht realized that he would need to gain critical mass if he was to be seen as a serious homebuilder. So roughly a year ago, he announced plans to buy the homebuilding division of Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE: WY). Though investors initially applauded the move, the euphoria had worn off by the time the deal was finally consummated in July 2014.
Well, Sternlicht’s bold move appears to be paying off. Tri Pointe just announced Q3 profits that were more than twice as high as analysts had been forecasting. As he has done on the hotel industry, Sternlicht is focusing on upper-income consumers. A typical Tri Pointe home sold for $560,000 in the third quarter, more than twice the national median. To appeal to well-heeled buyers, his firm is offering a range of housing-related services such as mortgage advisory, title search, escrow and other services. With the Weyerhauser purchase fully digested, Tri Pointe is aiming for 25% volume growth in 2015, even as most other homebuilders look ahead to 2016 to pursue robust growth. Meanwhile, shares remain near the 52-week low.
American Capital Ltd. (Nasdaq: ACAS)
Delivering Q3 per share profits that were 50% ahead of consensus forecasts was impressive for this business development company (BDC) when you consider that it lagged profit forecasts for the three straight quarters prior.
But the real news that should catch investors’ attention is American Capital’s announcement that it will split into three separate companies. Management is taking that bold step after watching shares languish well below book value. Tangible book stood at $10.71 at the end of 2010, but now stands at around $20.50, thanks to a healthy appreciation in its portfolio. Meanwhile, shares continue to trade below $16.
The move represents a sort of capitulation by management. While most other BDCs pay out almost all of their income in dividends, ACAS has pursued a buyback strategy, which is one reason why book value per share has been expanding at a rapid pace. Though BDCs are mandated to pay out their income, ACAS’ high level of Net Operating Loss (NOLs) carry forwards mean it has been wiser to retain earnings from a tax perspective. The NOLs are rapidly being depleted, so the past approach began to make less sense.
By splitting into three distinct companies, ACAS will now offer two different yield-oriented vehicles (American Capital Growth and Income, and American Capital Income) while also retaining many assets in the core existing entity. It will take time for the process to be complete and also take time for each entity to build up a stable shareholder base. But holding all three entities until that happens should greatly narrow the gap to book value, which should lead to 25% upside, even before contemplating what kind of yields the two stub businesses will produce.
Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. (Nasdaq: KORS)
Retailers have had a tough slog over the past five-to-six years, but not this apparel and accessories firm. Revenues shot up to $3.3 billion in fiscal 2014 from $400 million in fiscal (March) 2009, thanks in large part to 50+% sales growth in each of the past four years. Such growth has been accompanied by a richly-valued stock price.
Yet investors are coming to understand that like any great growth story, the laws of bigness eventually kick in. Sales are on pace to grow around 33% this year and slow to a 25% pace in fiscal 2016.
Still, this is a retailer that is firing on all cylinders, as evidenced by the fact that fiscal Q2 earnings per share once again topped the consensus forecasts by more than 10%. Management did caution that same store sales won’t grow at a high-teens pace in the current quarter as previously expected and instead is guiding for mid-teens same store sales growth. Any other retailer would love to be able to boost same store sales at a double-digit pace.
Analysts at Merrill Lynch, who see shares rising to $120, just boosted their sales and profit forecasts for KORS, noting that the company is capable of sustained 20% growth for the foreseeable future “driven by significant new item, category and gender expansion opportunities globally.” Management appears to share that view, having just initiated a $1 billion buyback program.
Risks To Consider: These stocks may be dead money until the next earnings season. Q3 earnings are all but behind us, which offered the most recent catalyst.
Action To Take –> A combination of better-than-expected results and a stalled stock price mean that all of these stocks sport more compelling valuations than they did just a month ago. While American Capital is the true bargain stock in this group, trading well below book value, Michael Kors and Tri Pointe Homes offer industry-leading growth prospects in industries that are still stuck in low-growth modes.
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