Commodities Guru Sees Bullish Markets Ahead
Roughly seven years ago, commodity prices were surging to record highs as Western economies grew at a decent pace and Asian economies experienced supercharged growth. Though the 2008 financial crisis led to a pullback, commodity prices began moving higher again in 2009 and 2010 as economists predicted a synchronized global economic rebound.
We now know that such a widespread rebound never took root, and by the spring of 2011, commodity prices were showing signs of a breakdown. Fast forward to 2014, and this asset class is now deeply out of favor. The underperformance relative to stocks, in that time, has been quite striking.
Of course the secret to great investing is “rotation, rotation, rotation.” As certain asset classes appreciate and others slump, savvy investors tend to book profits on winning categories and re-deploy assets into the biggest losers — such as commodities.
My colleague Dave Forest devotes a considerable amount of time in Scarcity & Real Wealth to commodities, identifying the best investments for current and future market climates. A number of stocks in his portfolio holds clear current value — in relation to their balance sheets and future cash flows.
#-ad_banner-#But investors also like to get reassurance from a macro-economic perspective. And that makes this a good time to check in with Jim Rogers, the legendary commodities guru. Rogers takes a top-down approach, identifying major themes before implementing specific investing strategies.
What has Rogers been saying lately? You would think that the dismal commodities charts suggest a sober view. In various media reports, he concedes that he didn’t expect the current commodities meltdown, but is sticking with his view that commodities are still in a long-term bull market.
“We’re in a correction, a serious one,” Rogers said recently to Business Insider. But he said he thinks the correction will turn around and a drop in oil prices is setting the stage, noting that many major global oil fields are in decline.
Rogers is among a group of investors that questions the longevity of the U.S. shale revolution, echoing the concerns of others about depletion rates.
“Remember, those are very short-lived wells,” he said in an interview with India’s Economic Times last month. “Those wells run down, the production runs down very quickly with those wells. There is a possibility of running up a big debt. So, do not count on shale coming on strong if prices stay weak.”
What about precious metals such as gold? Rogers recently noted that he hasn’t been buying at current levels. He appears to be waiting for gold to drop below $1,000 an ounce, which would put it nearly 50% below its all-time high. Such peak-to-trough bands have often led to buying opportunities in gold.
Rogers remains a perma-bull on agricultural commodities, believing that rising consumption in many emerging markets is bumping up against the realities of scarce arable land.
“I am long on fertilizers and agriculture commodities as I expect prices to go up,” he added in his October 2014 interview with India’s Economic Times.
It’s interesting to gauge Rogers’ view of the relative importance of various commodities by looking at the make-up of a proprietary index he created. The Rogers International Commodity Index gives a roughly 30% weighting to crude oil, with agricultural commodities (wheat, corn and cotton) also found among the index’s top ten weightings.
That index has spawned a series of commodities-focused ETFs. Since Rogers is especially bullish on agriculture right now, it pays to look at the ELEMENTS Rogers International Commodity Index – Agriculture Total Return ETF (NYSE: RJA), which peaked at $12 a share in early 2011 and now trades below $8. The ETF is hard to assess in terms of cash flow or assets. Instead, investors are simply looking for profit from a potential rebound in corn, wheat and other crops, some of which have been in a deep bear market in the past year or two.
Risks To Consider: China is still the 800-pound gorilla in the commodity sector. Slowing demand from China has hurt commodity prices (excluding energy), and a mere stabilization of demand could be what’s needed to get these assets to stabilize.
Action To Take –> Viewed through a three-year snapshot, stocks have utterly decimated commodities. That doesn’t mean that commodities will deliver relative outperformance in the near-term. But it is clear that the depression in commodity prices is having an impact on production. As supply drops below demand, a powerful snapback may ensue. That makes this a good time to start adding some commodities exposure to your portfolio, especially as they often tend to be non-correlated or even negatively-correlated with stocks.
My colleague Dave Forest — editor of StreetAuthority’s Scarcity & Real Wealth newsletter — travels all over the world to find opportunities in commodities most investors haven’t even heard of yet. Dave recently found a huge opportunity that could earn 29% gains by February… but only if you invest by December 10, 2014. Get all the details here.