StreetAuthority Presents: Your 2015 Dividend Playbook
As market strategists laid out their forecasts for 2014, they got many things right. Most predicted that the stock market would post another year of gains, unemployment rates would keep falling, corporate profit margins would stay near all-time #-highs and Europe would remain the weak spot in the global economy.
But these strategists also missed one huge factor: Interest rates. While it was widely assumed that a firming economy and the eventual termination of the Fed’s quantitative easing (QE) program would lead a steady rise in interest rates, the bond market had a different plan. The precipitous fall in the 10-Year Treasury Yield is surely the most unexpected trend of the past year.
Frankly, it’s hard to square a firming economy and falling interest rates. Economic textbooks suggest that’s not possible. But these textbooks often ignore exogenous conditions. The fact that Europe is gasping for air and the Chinese economy is cooling off means that domestic economic strength is being trumped by international economic weakness.
#-ad_banner-#Another key factor: the world is awash in excess capital, as the top 1% of the global economy generates billions in new wealth each year. Much of the global elite see the United States as a safe haven in an uncertain world. As they keep buying our bonds, they are pushing our interest rates ever lower.
The unexpected drop in bond yields creates a profound conundrum for income-seeking investors. Not only do bonds fail to generate respectable income streams, but if and when yields begin to rise higher again (as they inevitably will), then bond prices and bond funds will lose value.
The silver lining: If you owned bonds or bond funds in 2014, then you scored solid gains. Presumably, bond yields really can’t move much lower from here, so such gains in 2015 are much less likely. Indeed, a solid argument can be made for reducing your exposure to bonds now and re-visiting this asset class when yields are once again respectable (and bond prices and funds have already lost the value that will result from rising rates).
This whole backdrop means that dividends will again play a crucial role in portfolios in 2015. Simply put, hundreds of dividend-producing stocks offer a higher yield than the 10-Year Treasury and such stocks may also deliver capital appreciation in 2015. With that in mind, I’ll be profiling the various corners of the dividend market in coming days. Here’s a sneak preview:
— Solid yields and safety are not mutually exclusive. You can capture dividend yields of 4% or more, with stocks that have a low beta, reasonable payout ratios and a high likelihood that the dividend will keep growing as the U.S. economy strengthens.
— Some companies are experiencing rapid dividend growth. They often yield 2%-to-3% right now, but if you buy them today and hang on to them for several years, then you will reap more robust dividend yields in coming years. Importantly, the eventual higher yields are likely to stay above fixed-income yields, even as the Fed starts to raise rates.
— Many mid-sized and large banks have rebuilt their financial foundation and with a green light from regulators, are on a path to sharply boost their dividends. A firming U.S. economy will only underscore the increasing confidence by banks as they pursue shareholder-friendly policies.
— Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) allow you to pursue a wide range of dividend-focused strategies. I’ll look at the myriad options and recommend five ETFs that deserve a place in your portfolio.
If you’d like to get a jump start on all things dividend, then you should check out The Daily Paycheck. This newsletter focuses on putting dividend payers to work for you — and your retirement. This strategy has helped Amy Calistri, our resident income investor pocket more than $76,000 since she began using it in December 2009. And her portfolio is safer than the S&P 500. We, at StreetAuthority, have been so impressed that we urged her to spread the word to a wider audience. That’s why, for the first time, Amy took the stage to explain exactly how The Daily Paycheck strategy works. If you haven’t already, I encourage you to watch the exclusive presentation here. You won’t be disappointed.