One of the most remarkable aspects of the past half-decade has been a complete lack of change. Year after year, the economy grew at a subpar pace, inflation remained subdued and stocks have bounded ever higher. Simply owning a cross section of industries yielded solid annual results.

#-ad_banner-#Yet in just the first five weeks of 2015, it’s become increasingly clear that we’ve busted out of the same old, same old. Across the global economy, major changes are afoot. And investors can no longer hang back and let the market simply work its magic. It’s time for a more active approach to portfolio management.

Here are five key stats that explain why 2015 is already quite distinct from 2014.

Rig Count
The fallout from plunging oil prices began to be felt two-to-three months ago, but we’re just getting started. Consumers have been inclined to save the windfall thus far, but may be emboldened to start spending more once their bank accounts are sturdy enough. Meanwhile, capital spending and employment levels in the U.S. energy industry are only now starting to feel the impact, a trend which should strengthen with each passing quarter.

The number of oil and gas rigs in service has begun to fall and is likely to keep falling, as long as oil prices stay below $60. Citigroup’s forecast: “Production cuts and demand growth over time should tighten the market sometime between late 2015 and early 2016.”

The Interest Rate Plunge
Back in May 2013, investors were just starting to think about eventual Fed rate hikes and began to steadily sell their bond holdings, boosting yields on longer-dated instruments. Yet, even as there is a better than 50% chance that the Fed will start raising rates this summer, investors no longer seem very concerned. Instead, the tenuous nature of the global economy has come to dominate the thinking of bond investors — both here and abroad. As a result, interest rates are now shockingly low.

Such low rates are starting to cause concerns. Market strategists at Societe Generale think the bond slump doesn’t just signal a rapidly weakening global economy, but a stalling economy here at home, that could lead to deflation. 

Then again, you can see the glass as half full. Low rates should help support the economy in many ways, aiding both consumers with low-cost mortgages and car loans and businesses with continued cheap access to capital. As of now, the road ahead suggests rates will stay low for quite some time. Then again, few anticipated the remarkable drop in interest rates in 2014.

China’s PMI
In the summer of 2012, investors grew alarmed by a sudden plunge in China’s Purchasing Manufacturer’s Index, which fell below 50, signaling a contraction in that all-important global economic engine. The extent, for example, that all other Asian economies are now dependent on the Chinese manufacturing complex is hard to overstate. China has the ability to single-handedly slow regional, if not global, economic growth.

In hindsight, that PMI pullback was mostly due to the fact that the index had only recently spiked sharply higher and an inventory correction was needed to clear out the excess.

Yet this index has, with little fanfare, slipped back below 50 once again. And this time, it’s not simply the result of a prior sudden spike. China’s economy is indeed slowing, and how much it slows in 2015 will spell the difference between a rising or sinking global economy.

IPO Froth
As I recently noted, the IPO market had a stellar year in 2014. By a pair of measures, it was the best year since 2000.

Yet, if you dig a little deeper into the pre-IPO market, then you can see the buzz building in the Venture Capital (VC) world as well. These cash-flush investors are willing to provide funds to young firms at increasingly lush valuations.

For example, the number of companies that are valued at more than $1 billion, even as they are still raising capital before going public, now exceeds 40, after 21 of them crossed that threshold in 2014. The last time we saw such a big spike in this corner of the market was 1999, which opened the door to a market melt up into March 2000, and a subsequent resounding market crash.

Global Bond Defaults
We’re approaching the 20th anniversary of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. What began as a run on Thailand’s currency, the baht, swelled into a regional crisis, with all of Asia experiencing a bout of deep distress. Indeed it’s events such as these that can spook global equity investors, as they start to speculate on how far such financial contagions might spread.

As we head deeper into 2015, the plunge in oil prices is beginning to wreak deep havoc on various petro-states. Venezuela is widely rumored to face bond defaults this year. The Nigerian economy — Africa’s largest — is suddenly faced with massive budget deficits and a contentious election, always a volatile mix. And the Russian economy is expected to shrink by more than $100 billion this year. Iran, for its part, is dealing with both economic sanctions and a sharp drop in oil-related income.

And those are just the stress points we know about. 

None of these economies play a huge role in the global economy (they range from 9th to 33rd in terms of GDP), but taken together, they surely have an impact. Their combined GDP is almost the size of Germany’s, according to U.N. statistics.

Investors are already demanding a big haircut to buy Venezuela dollar bonds, and other petro-state bonds may also start to see rising distress.

Risks To Consider: These five factors are merely the shifting trends that have emerged early in 2015. As the rest of the year unfolds, further market risks may build, which makes this a good time to stay abreast of global economic headlines.

Action To Take –> Not all of the above-cited factors are clear negatives. The consumer end of the U.S. economy may be poised for its best showing since 2007.  Moreover, the recently-announced European monetary stimulus could completely change the sentiment around that long-struggling continent, which would have a tangible impact in global oil prices, global interest rates, trade flows, etc. The key takeaway is that 2015 is likely to be quite different than recent years, and this is a good time to re-assess your portfolio’s exposure to the various push and pull factors. 

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