The Guru’s Bold Call That I Can’t Ignore
There are a pair of solid reasons why I developed my skills as a stock analyst: I don’t have much faith in other analysts and money managers, and nobody is going to care as much about managing my money as I am.
#-ad_banner-#But there are a few analysts and money managers that I do respect. Adam Parker, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley is one of them, as well as Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs.
Few money managers, even among those that I follow, are able to say they have consistently beaten the market. In fact, I can only think of one and he just made a recommendation that I cannot ignore.
A Market Oracle Makes A Bold Call
To my knowledge, you won’t find a money manager or analyst that has surpassed the stock-picking savvy of Bill Miller, chairman and chief investment officer of Legg Mason Capital Management. Miller runs his firm’s Legg Mason Value Trust, which beat the S&P 500 for 15 consecutive years, making him one of the most widely-respected managers on Wall Street.
Miller’s historic run came to an end in 2006, and shares of Legg Mason, Inc. (NYSE: LM) plunged 90% over the three years to February 2009. Yet he’s back on his game: Miller’s fund has returned to the top, beating 97% of the mutual funds in his category over the three years ended June 2014.
And he just called out one stock as potentially the best deal of the next decade.
High Risk For Extremely High Reward
Miller isn’t known for throwing out bold predictions. As a value investor, he sticks fairly close to the cheaper end of the market. That’s what makes his call, that Intrexon Corp. (NYSE: XON) could be the best stock to own over the next decade, even more interesting.
While the company’s sales have increased nearly three-fold over the last two years, the company still isn’t profitable. Shares trade for more than 70 times trailing sales, which is not the kind of valuation metric you would normally see in the portfolio of a value investor. But Intrexon is in an industry that could change the world we live in.
Intrexon is a leader in the field of synthetic biology, an interdisciplinary branch of biology that combines biotech and molecular biology in genetic engineering. The company partners with other research companies to design, build and regulate gene programs for use across a variety of sectors. Over the last two years, the company has expanded from a sole focus in healthcare into food, consumer, environment and energy collaborations.
The company’s broad strategy lowers the cost and risk of its research into any one program and spreads resources across programs. Intrexon is currently in 23 exclusive channel collaborations (ECC).
Several of the company’s collaborations are already paying off and sales have surged from just $14 million in 2012 to a projected $67 million in 2014 and an expected $143 million this year. The company’s current market value approaches $4 billion, but key product development breakthroughs could significantly boost the valuation.
Though Intrexon has a history of operating losses, analysts think the company will reach break-even by 2016.
Nearly two years ago, Intrexon signed a collaboration with AmpliPhi to develop phage therapies, which target antibiotic-resistant infections. The collaboration has already resulted in AMP-001, a drug that targets lung infections in people with cystic fibrosis. The current target market is $1.2 billion and is projected to grow to $3.5 billion by 2019.
The company’s collaboration with ZioPharm Oncology, Inc. (Nasdaq: ZIOP) (a late-stage oncology drug development company that creating therapeutics for cancer treatments) continues to generate its largest revenue stream, accounting for 44% of 2013 revenue. The collaboration’s lead drug in development (Ad-IL-12) completed Phase I human clinical trials and is in multiple Phase II studies for the treatment of melanoma, breast cancer and glioblastoma.
Highlighted in the company’s most recent investor presentation is a potential breakthrough drug that uses anti-cancer monoclonal antibodies and represents market of $20 billion, according to the company. In a treatment study for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), the company’s adoptive cell therapy eliminated any presence of a tumor weighing two kilograms or more for a duration of at least 24 months.
The key takeaway: Intrexon is pursuing a broad range of classes of drugs, in tandem with an impressive set of collaboration partners. One or several of those efforts could yield solid upside for this stock.
The company has $123 million in cash and just $11 million in debt on the balance sheet, enough to sustain it for several years of liquidity. Consider shares for a speculative portfolio of stocks with the potential to return multiples on your investment on a three to five-year period.
Risks To Consider: Legg Mason’s Bill Miller notes that, “synthetic biology is kind of where software was when people first began to write software,” which means that it could still be some time before the industry and Intrexon meet high expectations.
Action To Take –> Consider shares of Intrexon for your speculative 10-bagger portfolio. Shares could jump higher if the company can monetize its position in the nascent industry of synthetic biology.
Want more investments that could return outsized gains? My colleague Andy Obermueller devotes his time to identifying game-changing trends and the companies. This has led readers to investments that went on to gain triple-digits. He recently compiled a list of what he believes are the next great trends called “The Hottest Investment Opportunities For 2015.” For more information on the game-changing idea that could move the markets and change the world, click here.