Buy The Firm Putting A Camera On Every Cop
When one group has disproportionate authority over another, there is little leeway for the characteristics that make us uniquely human — carelessness, bigotry, emotion, error in judgment, ignorance.
That truth has never been more evident than in recent months, which have been plagued with high-profile incidents of law enforcement fatally using force to apprehend suspected lawbreakers.
The deaths of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri and Freddie Gray in Baltimore, Maryland, among others, spurred outcries of police negligence, followed by protests and riots in major cities.
#-ad_banner-#The trouble arises when an officer resorts to violence, but there is little or no evidence to substantiate or discredit the need for an escalation in tactics. This often leads investigators to rely on eyewitness testimony and official police statements, both of which have potential for biases.
Incidents like this foster distrust in the justice system and in the police. This is not a new problem, but it is one that finally has a solution.
The answer: offer nonlethal weapons and hold all parties accountable by strapping a camera to every officer.
A recent study by the San Diego Police Department concluded that the presence of body cameras reduced complaints against police officers by 41% and the use of force by 47%.
When the events in Ferguson unfolded, my colleague Josh Sparrow accurately identified two body camera manufacturers leading the charge in the proliferation of police body cameras.
Share prices for the two companies, Taser International, Inc. (Nasdaq: TASR) and Digital Ally, Inc. (NYSE: DGLY), surged as a result.
While both have done well, Taser stands out as the clear leader moving forward. The company is larger, more established and better equipped to grow from both solutions to these fatal acts: body cameras and nonlethal weapons.
Its operations fall under two business segments: the Taser weapons segment and AXON, which includes its cameras and the firm’s cloud-based digital evidence storage, management and analysis system, called Evidence.com.
The company has achieved serious milestones toward establishing a dominant market share over the burgeoning body-worn camera industry.
AXON hit the market in 2012 and grossed nearly $3.8 million. Two short years later sales were at $57 million, a 1,400% increase.
Taser’s AXON business model is similar to the relationship that iPod buyers have with iTunes. According to SEC filings, 80% of camera buyers purchase a subscription to Evidence.com, providing an end-to-end user experience.
As of May, 16 major cities have purchased the company’s Axon body cameras and roughly 22,000 subscriptions to Evidence.com have been sold.
Two immediate factors will help those numbers continue to grow in coming quarters:
In December, President Obama requested $263 million to equip police with body cameras. Last week, following the protests and riots in Baltimore, the Department of Justice announced a step toward Obama’s goal by offering $20 million. This is the first step in a three-year, $75 million DOJ program to deploy 50,000 body cameras.
Not only is the federal government pitching in, but Taser is offering grants to police departments to include its stun guns and body cameras as part of their standard issued equipment. Taser’s goal is to have 100,000 officers using both products by 2016.
If the company reaches its goal, management estimates this could be a $600 million opportunity for the firm.
That leads us to the firm’s namesake product, for which it holds a patent and monopoly-like market share: its conducted electrical weapon, or stun gun.
The mark of any great product is when the brand name becomes synonymous with the product itself. Think Band Aid, Kleenex and Clorox. Taser has achieved that with the stun gun market.
Management estimates that roughly two-thirds of all U.S. law enforcement agents carry Taser-branded weapons. Its growing market dominance is apparent when examining revenue for this segment, which has increased 33.5% to $145 million since 2012.
Not only are sales rapidly increasing for both its business segments, but so are gross margins. The weapons segment sported a stellar 71% gross margin in Q1 2015, a year-over-year increase of nearly 5%.
AXON’s margins improved to nearly 41% in the most recent quarter, an incredible 23% increase compared to the same quarter a year ago.
Thinking realistically, Taser’s body cameras are unlikely to command the degree of market share that the weapons segment does, as there is no patent and a great deal of competition. But taken in conjunction with the company’s existing relationship with law enforcement and their all-inclusive approach of offering data recording hardware (body cameras) and data storage software (Evidence.com), I think the AXON segment stands to provide strong growth for the firm.
In 2014, the weapons segment accounted for 88.5% of the company’s total revenue. As police body cameras shift from handy accessory to required equipment, the AXON segment will account for a larger percentage of total sales, helping TASR diversify its revenue streams.
Risks To Consider: Technology evolves quickly, and a new camera system could eclipse the Axon system, rendering these catalysts null.
Action To Take –> In light of recent events, there is a high likelihood that police will be required to wear cameras on their person at all times. This is a huge investment for police departments, but with the federal government and TASR offering to help subsidize the cost, the profit potential for Taser is substantial. Buy shares at current market prices, which trade for roughly 10 times expected 2015 earnings.
As this trend takes hold, TASR’s stock will have strong upward momentum (and already does). Academic studies have shown that momentum is one of the only indicators that has consistently outperformed the market. In fact, two of my colleagues have been quietly testing the Maximum Profit system, which is making a small group of investors a lot of money. It flags exactly which stocks are about to jump double, even triple digits in the coming days, weeks and months. And it recently tagged a few more stocks that could do the same. After nearly two years of beta-testing they are finally revealing this system. To learn more, click here.