Successful investing isn’t easy. If it were, everyone would do it. But some tried and true principles give disciplined, patient investors an edge. One such principle is identifying immutable long-term trends and finding companies likely to benefit.

#-ad_banner-#The most powerful, enduring long-term trend in American life right now is the aging population. No government policy, new technology or unforeseen circumstance will change the fact that the Baby Boom population is moving into its senior years, working its way through America’s demographic body like a meal through a python. That bulge in population means some parts of our economy will grow at a faster rate than others for many years to come.

About 10,000 Americans turn 65 every day. By 2030, more than 20% of the population will be over 65 years old and more than a third will be over 50. By 2050, the population aged 65 or older will be an estimated 84 million, vs. 43.1 million in 2012; the population of Americans 85 or older will be an estimated 18 million, vs. 5.9 million in 2012. That means a rapidly expanding market for companies that sell products or services to older Americans.

Its commonplace to read investment advice targeted at this large, growing population. Clearly, businesses that serve seniors will benefit: pharmaceutical makers, surgical-device manufacturers, nursing homes, retirement communities, golf courses, cruise lines, insurance providers, eyeglass makers — the list goes on and on.

But what if we narrow our focus by considering a subset of these beneficiaries — ones that also benefit from another powerful trend?

The trend I have in mind also will impact this population, and the companies that serve it: Americans are living longer and longer. Medical advances have improved treatment of chronic conditions like high blood pressure, high cholesterol, heart disease and diabetes. We’ve also seen improved emergency treatment of strokes and heart attacks, and some progress in treating cancer. Combined with healthier lifestyles in general — especially much lower rates of smoking — more and more Americans are living well into their 90s and beyond.

The Census Bureau reports that average U.S. life expectancy at age 65 was 15.2 years in 1972 and rose to 19.1 years in 2010, a net gain of 3.9 years. If that trend continues and even accelerates, the senior population could grow even more than expected — and the population of very old Americans will grow to unprecedented size.

That’s why savvy investors should have their eyes on companies that specialize not only in serving older Americans but in the oldest Americans — especially in the home. Home health care, while expensive, is significantly less expensive for insurers, including Medicare, than a hospital or nursing home stay. Starting in 2013, Medicare even began penalizing hospitals with excessive readmission rates, giving them an incentive to promote successful home recovery and rehab services. Providers that can prove their value will receive more business over time. (Of course, most patients also prefer to be at home.)

Here are two such stocks that are attractively valued today:

Amedisys (Nasdaq: AMED) is one of the largest home health and hospice providers in the country, serving about 380,000 patients each year. The company says it works as a post-acute-care partner to more than 2,233 hospitals and more than 61,900 doctors. Based in Louisiana, the company now operates in 34 states, Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico.

Amedisys provides a range of health care services in the home, including recovery and rehab, chronic-disease management, palliative care for those with chronic illnesses and hospice care for those nearing the end of life. The company has announced plans to grow aggressively through acquisitions, such as this week’s announced purchase of Infinity HomeCare, a Sarasota-based home health agency with 15 locations in Florida. With low debt and access to low-cost credit, Amedisys is likely to announce more deals in the near future.

Amedisys has been a leader in incorporating technology into home health care, such as point-of-service mobile devices that can connect a nurse or therapist with the patient’s doctor back at the hospital. Data management is a key component of the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare, so Amedisys has a leg up over smaller competitors in this regard.

The stock trades about 20% below its 52-week high and at an attractive price/earnings ratio of around 22.

Almost Family (Nasdaq: AFAM) provides Medicare-certified home health nurses to patients in the home as well as other health-related services, such as medication management, caregiver respite and meal assistance, mostly in the home. It operates out of 223 branches across the South, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and Midwest: Florida, Tennessee, Ohio, Kentucky, Connecticut, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Indiana, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Missouri, Mississippi and Alabama.

The company is benefiting from rising demand for health services in the home. The global home health care market will grow from around $175 billion in 2013 to more than $300 billion estimated in 2020. Almost Family has positioned itself to take advantage of this growing market through a series of acquisitions that have made it the fourth-largest home health care provider in the nation. Revenue has grown at an 8.2% annualized rate over the past five years. 

While a midsize company, Almost Family has smartly invested in IT and data-analysis systems that allow it to serve the health systems with which it contracts by improving service and cutting costs. 

Almost Family’s stock trades 17% below its 52-week high and at a price/earnings ratio of around 22, among the lowest among leading home health care companies. The stock fell after the company announced slightly disappointing third-quarter earnings this week, but I’d view that as a buying opportunity.

Risks To Consider: Amedisys’ acquisition spree could result in some bad deals and/or difficulties with integrating newly acquired companies. Almost Family is a mid-cap stock that could be a takeover target. Both also are subject to negative news from regulatory or Medicare compensation changes.
    
Action To Take: Buy Amedisys below $43 and Almost Family below $44.

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