The past year was an eventful one for U.S. stocks, with volatility picking up considerably in August, China’s economic slowdown casting a long shadow and the Fed finally pulling the trigger on a long-telegraphed interest-rate hike.

#-ad_banner-#What will 2016 bring? Here are six trends to watch:

Interest rates. No one was surprised when the Fed increased the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage points) in mid-December. Fed Chair Janet Yellen carefully telegraphed the increase for months, and better-than-expected jobs reports in the fall made it a near-certainty. What comes next is harder to predict, though an educated guess isn’t too difficult: slow, gradual upticks in rates are the most likely course. My prediction is that Yellen & Company ease rates higher only once or twice in 2016, several months apart each time.

Why? Despite low unemployment, the labor market clearly retains some slack, with historically high rates of non-participation and wages not keeping pace with productivity. And with energy prices still low (more on that later) and tepidly growing China unlikely to fuel an unexpected increase in global demand for commodities, inflation remains well under control. Some analysts are even calling for a recession to begin in 2016, after seven straight years of expansion. So there’s simply no reason for aggressively higher rates — especially in a presidential election year, when the Fed traditionally exercises caution.

China. Much has been written, including here, about China’s slowing economic growth. It’s important not to exaggerate this “slump.” Economists expect that the world’s second-largest economy grew about 6.9% in 2015 and that GDP growth could fall to 6.2% in 2016. That pace would amount to a tremendous economic boom in the United States, but the global economy, as well as our own, has grown accustomed to China growing at least 7% a year; 2015 likely will mark the country’s slowest GDP increase in a quarter century.

China’s economy has a significant influence on ours, as it is a source of demand for all kinds of goods and services, from raw materials to snack foods to consumer devices to wind turbines. China is also an engine for the Pacific Rim economies, generating even more demand for U.S. goods. Recent economic reports show positive signs that China’s economy is stabilizing and may even perform better than expected next year. If that’s the case, it could be a shot in the arm for U.S. stocks.

Energy. One key to 2016 will be the direction of oil and natural gas prices. Mired in a slump for 18 months, energy prices fell to historic lows in recent weeks. That’s great news for drivers and industries that use a lot of fossil fuels, such as electric utilities, transportation providers and chemical makers. But it’s bad news for the considerable chunk of the U.S. economy whose growth was driven by expanding production of oil, and especially natural gas, for much of the past decade.

The healthiest outcome for U.S. GDP growth would be a recovery in oil and natural gas prices to a level that makes it worthwhile to explore for and produce energy without making it painfully expensive to produce electricity or fill your tank. Some analysts are calling for a rebound in oil prices in the next year, though it’s hard to see much evidence of that happening soon. This trend bears watching, as a change in the energy market’s dynamics will impact a wide range of industries and publicly traded companies.

Homeland Security. The rise of ISIL in Iraq and Syria, the Paris attacks and the San Bernardino massacre have ratcheted up concerns about terrorist attacks on American soil. In turn, the presidential campaign, responding to these events and concerns, has made homeland security a higher political priority than it has been in years.

Meanwhile, the multiyear budget impasse in the U.S. Congress is loosening, as new Speaker Paul Ryan looks to improve his party’s standing by build a legacy of legislative achievement. Notably, in October Congress and President Obama agreed on a two-year budget deal that raises defense spending caps by $33 billion in fiscal 2016 (ends next September) and another $23 billion in fiscal 2017. There are further hurdles ahead legislatively, but if the bipartisan consensus holds up, look for defense and homeland security contractors to see better-than-expected revenue after a three-year period of relatively constrained checkbooks.

The Presidential Election. Next year’s presidential election will dominate headlines, and it promises to be a humdinger. Will Donald Trump remain the GOP frontrunner despite the Republican establishment’s preference for a more traditional candidate? Will Hillary Clinton’s seemingly inevitable nomination be a cakewalk or a contest? And will the general election campaign feature as many twists and turns as we’ve seen so far?

Most important from an investment standpoint, what policies will the next president pursue on energy, defense, inequality, homeland security, taxes, trade, the environment, foreign policy, etc.? The answers will help determine the direction of U.S. stocks overall and which industries and individual companies thrive or falter in the coming years.

Editor’s Note: Have you seen our list of The 10 Most Shockingly Profitable Predictions For 2016? Our previous predictions have given investors annual returns as high as 310%. And this year’s group might still be our biggest money-makers yet. To hear the full list of predictions, including how to profit from Google’s shocking new business venture, click here.