Your Best Chance At Triple-Digit Gains In 2016
As I write this, the bull market has lasted for 2,473 days, making it the third-longest in U.S. history. The record is 4,494 days from 1987 to 2000, followed by the period from 1949 to 1956.
While 2016 may well emerge as the best year the market has ever seen — and presidential election years are typically above average — the evidence I’m seeing suggests standout performance is not likely. The most optimistic forecast I’ve come across for 2016 has been “high single digits.”
#-ad_banner-#That’s hardly a barn-burner.
But these predictions are defensible based on the available evidence. Growth in the developed world is hardly robust. Estimates call for 3% growth in the United States and 2% in the European Union, which puts the majority of the world economy in low gear.
Commodities are losing steam. Oil is trading for about $30 a barrel, more than $110 off its all-time high. This downtrend is also evident in the agriculture space, and even precious metals. Gold may well settle below $1,000 an ounce for the first time in recent memory, and silver isn’t faring any better.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is back below 5,000 while many are questioning the (ridiculously) elevated valuations on unprofitable tech “unicorns” — richly valued companies that are not making money. We’ve certainly seen this before. It’s what caused the last tech bubble to burst.
The earnings multiple of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index remains elevated. The Index’s trailing 12-month P/E ratio is greater than one standard deviation from its arithmetic mean, which makes it unattractive.
As I have noted to readers of my Game-Changing Stocks newsletter recently, new-money allocations to the broader market do not present compelling upside at this time, though my pessimism ought to be tempered by a fairly normal reading on projected future earnings.
Nevertheless, the market can hardly be described as cheap.
We also face no shortage of global challenges. China, which is about to adopt a new five-year plan, is losing steam. Growth there has fallen below 7%, with estimates of 6.3%-6.5% for 2016. I find those optimistic.
Later this year, the new super capacity lane of the Panama Canal will open, which will rewrite global trade routes — no mean feat. The 12 nations considering a Trans-Pacific Partnership account for 40% of global GDP. The United Kingdom will decide whether to leave the European Union. We’ll have an election stateside with another in Taiwan. Rio hosts the Summer Olympics. Only God knows what will become of Greece.
Where does this leave us?
For Game-Changing Stocks readers, it means sticking to our system. Amid the chaos and cacophony of the market, my systematic approach to low-risk, aggressive growth investing is our sole refuge.
As longtime subscribers know, our system consists of two buckets. Bucket One contains roughly 80% of assets and is allocated to blue-chip securities with a highly predictable rate of return. This is the “autopilot” portion of your portfolio, and it should seldom be tweaked. Bucket Two is home to your choice of the aggressive growth picks I regularly recommend in my newsletter. These are the “game changers” — the companies that disrupt the baseline assumptions for doing business in a given industry. We task this bucket to beat the market in order to move the needle on the overall portfolio.
Despite a weak domestic economy and a lackluster international picture, the market will most likely work things out on its own and deliver the highest return available to the individual investor of the major asset classes. That said, I see a greater likelihood of success in finding compelling opportunities for the 20% portfolio — the true game changers. This is where we must focus our attention.
That’s why I’m excited about the latest version of my annual “shocking predictions” report. Each year, I release my research on what could be the most exciting game-changing trends for the coming year. And it’s been one of the most profitable pieces of research for readers in StreetAuthority’s history.
From Google’s unexpected new business venture to Obama’s latest controversial move to a little-known technology that can actually predict the future, this year’s 10 predictions could be the most profitable yet.
Simply put, I think this year’s report could be your best chance at finding triple-digit gains in what will likely be an otherwise underwhelming year in the stock market. To check out my report, simply follow this link.