Why These Two Stocks Could Help You Weather The Market Volatility
U.S. stocks are attempting to recover from their January swoon, albeit with high volatility and no shortage of down days. The correction may not be over, I’ve noticed some solid signs that indicate we might not be headed into an extended bear market.
#-ad_banner-#One encouraging sign is the strong performance of consumer discretionary stocks. In contrast to consumer staples companies — the must-have-it products like food and toilet paper — consumer discretionary companies sell products and services that consumers can defer purchasing in uncertain times: cars, washing machines and amusement park tickets, to name a few. When investors fear a recession, consumer staples stocks tend to outperform consumer discretionary stocks. But when the latter rally, it’s a strong sign that the consensus thinks the economy will be at least okay for the foreseeable future — and that consumers will have extra cash in their wallets.
Currently, that seems to be the case — and for good reason. U.S. unemployment fell in January to 4.9%, an eight-year low. And average weekly earnings have risen 2.5% over the past 12 months. While not dramatic, it’s a notable improvement after years of stagnation. Employers across the country are reporting an increase in wage pressure, which isn’t great news for them but certainly positive for consumer discretionary stocks.
Another positive trend is the continued weakness in commodity prices, especially in energy. Cheap oil and gas mean lower prices for gasoline, heat and electricity. For lower-income Americans, energy typically accounts for 25% of their spending — so reduced expenses make a big difference in discretionary spending.
Finally, the average American family has a stronger balance sheet than it had a decade ago: less debt, fewer adjustable-rate mortgages and more cash in the bank. Foreclosures are at a 17-year low. With interest rates still very low despite the Fed’s hike of short-term interest rates in December, American families have a little breathing room to carry a consumer loan or credit-card debt for a few months if needed for a big-ticket purchase.
Here are two stocks in the consumer-discretionary space that look attractive today:
Chances are you are walking all over Mohawk Industries (NYSE: MHK) products at home or in the office. Mohawk is the #1 global manufacturer of flooring products: carpet, rugs, ceramic tile, laminate, wood, stone and vinyl flooring. Its brands include American Olean, Bigelow, Daltile, Durkan, Karastan, Lees, Marazzi, Mohawk, Pergo, Unilin, Quick-Step and IVC. And the business has become truly global, with operations in Australia, Canada, Europe, Asia and Latin America.
With the market for new homes finally turning around and mortgage rates still historically low, Mohawk is enjoying strong sales growth from North American flooring products. As mortgage rates edge higher this year (especially if the Fed continues to hike short-term rates), potential homeowners may rush to buy before rates go up further — pushing Mohawk’s sales even higher. And if unemployment remains low, homeowners who have deferred improvements may start to spend in 2016 and 2017. Mohawk is a well-run company with solid balance sheet and commanding market shares; the stock should head higher over the next few quarters.
Disney (NYSE: DIS), which I recommended here, is up slightly since then (thanks to a rally in the last week), and it’s still a good buy. Disney is a diversified media giant with some of the most successful entertainment companies in the world, including Pixar Studios, Marvel Entertainment, ABC, ESPN and of course Disney itself. The company’s movie business has had a huge success in Star Wars: The Force Awakens, the #1 U.S. box-office seller of all time, which can be expected to generate strong growth for years to come. (The current box office champ, Deadpool, is a Marvel property but distributed by Fox.) And its theme parks could perform better than expected in 2016 as U.S. consumers open their checkbooks and spend a little more.
The concern about Disney has been its cable business, especially longtime stalwart ESPN, which is losing subscribers as younger sports fans opt for online and mobile content over watching TV. But Disney’s diverse set of properties and significant investments in online and mobile platforms, including Hulu, should more than compensate for this trend over time.
Disney remains very strong financially, with ample and rising cash flow and very manageable debt. Credit Suisse recently issued an “outperform” rating and $130 price target for Disney stock. I think that’s a reasonable goal, given current valuations and the good outlook for consumer spending.
Risks To Consider: Mohawk and Disney are both vulnerable to lower-than-expected economic growth in the U.S. and worldwide.
Action To Take: Buy Disney below $100 and Mohawk Industries below $168.
P.S. Have you see our list of the Top 10 Stocks For 2016 yet? One of these top picks is owned by 60 members of congress. Another makes record profits during market crashes. And another is 94% immune from world problems. Get the names of these stocks here.