As I discussed yesterday, the U.S. economy continues to show surprising signs of strength and resilience. Job growth, consumer spending and manufacturing production are on the rise six years into a recovery. And for the markets, it’s significant that confidence in the U.S. economy seems to be rebounding from the gloomy mood early this year.

What does this mean for your portfolio?

#-ad_banner-#In general, the overall U.S. stock markets should perform well when the economy is growing and inflation and interest rates are historically low. But the devil is in the details. Defensive stocks, like electric utilities and blue chip stocks with above-average dividend yields, tend to underperform in such a climate. Yet global investors remain anxious about China, Europe and other economies outside our shores — so safe haven stocks may do just fine.

Still, the best performers should be those in areas that thrive when Americans are employed and have extra money in their pockets. And some specific industries could benefit from trends impacting them regardless of the wider economic scenario.

Here are the sectors most likely to outperform over the next 12 months:

Consumer Discretionary: By definition, companies in the consumer discretionary space sell goods and services that are not staples of everyday life. We’re talking about cars, boats, golf clubs, furniture, home improvement, cruises — the big-ticket purchases that can be deferred during lean times, but indulged in when you have some extra cash in your pocket. 

One note of caution: although unemployment is low, wage growth has been all but nonexistent. And after falling considerably in the first few years after the financial crisis, consumer debt is on the rise again. So while there’s reason to be bullish about consumer discretionary stocks, don’t bet the farm. The safer side of the sector are the non-luxury goods: auto, home improvement and leisure goods that aren’t high-ticket items (think movies rather than yachts).

Two of my favorite consumer discretionary stocks are carpet and flooring products maker Mohawk Industries (NYSE: MHK) and entertainment giant Disney (NYSE: DIS), which I profiled here. They both remain attractive today.

Homebuilding: It took seven years, but the housing market has finally started to show signs of sustained health. For the past nine months, new home construction — measured by housing starts — has been relatively robust; in February, 1.18 million new homes were started, the highest level since November 2007. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s caution about raising short-term interest rates in the face of global economic weakness augurs well for continued low mortgage rates.

Here, too, some caution is in order. Lenders — spooked by the financial crisis and more-vigilant regulators — are continuing to maintain fairly strict standards, which is good for the nation’s financial health but a damper for new home sales. And homebuilders in many regions are finding land and labor expensive, reducing profit margins. That said, there’s plenty of pent-up demand for new homes, and in new-home inventories have fallen in the faster-growing Sun Belt regions.

Two of the best stocks in the industry are market leaders PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM), the largest U.S. homebuilder, and Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN), the runner-up. Both are diversified geographically and by market and solid financially.

Energy: One of the worst-performing sectors of the past two years, energy has been absolutely clobbered by steep declines in the prices of crude oil and natural gas. But in recent weeks, energy stocks have rebounded as commodity prices have staged an impressive rally, with crude rising nearly 40% (albeit from a 12-year low). Is this the start of a long-term rally? That’s the ten thousand dollar question. And the most likely answer is no, not yet.

Crude oil inventories remain extremely high despite the low prices and wholesale cutbacks in U.S. production. And foreign producers have so far been unable to constrain production enough to push prices higher, especially with China and Europe in economic doldrums. Energy producers will report truly brutal first-quarter earnings despite the apparent rally, because most are still losing money on the oil and gas they’re pulling out of the ground.

That said, stock prices reflect future cash flows, not the current situation or the recent past. And looking over the next two to three years, there’s reason to be bullish on high-quality energy stocks. The recent rally may have been premature, but it reflected the reality that inventories eventually will decline as months of lower production finally work their way through. The resilient U.S. economy will help, as consumers hit the roads this summer and take full advantage of low prices at the pump. And as the supply-and-demand cycle improves for energy producers, the largest and financially strongest will emerge stronger than ever, as they pick up attractive assets below cost from distressed producers.

That’s why I think this is a good time to pick up shares of market-leading diversified energy producers, especially those that sport attractive dividend yields — so you get paid while you wait. ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), which is up about 10% since I recommended it in mid-January, is a solid buy now that yields 3.5%.

Risks To Consider: The biggest risk to consumer discretionary, homebuilding and leisure stocks is a downturn in the U.S. economy — which would most likely occur because global economies tank. Conversely, an uptick in inflation caused by faster-than-expected growth (and rising energy prices) could result in a more aggressive policy of interest rate increases, which could also constrain consumer spending. Energy stocks are vulnerable to a prolonged depression in energy commodity prices.

Action To Take: If you have little or no exposure to these industries in your portfolio, consider buying shares of the stocks listed above or a mutual fund or ETF that invests in these sectors. 

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