Beat The Summer Slump With These High Yielders
“Sell in May and go away” the old market maxim goes. It may not be far from the truth.
That would have been good advice last year.
#-ad_banner-#But this year? Who knows?
I’ve never been a proponent of getting completely out of the market. As a long term investor, time is always on your side, especially if you’re getting steady, respectable cash flow from your portfolio. If your portfolio is paying you a steady 7% on an annual basis (in income, not capital appreciation) and you go to cash, which is earning you nothing, what are you truly giving up for a little comfort from the volatility that comes with owning stocks?
While we may or may not have a summer swoon this year (who knows with an incredibly bizarre presidential election going on), it’s always good defense to not pay too much and get paid decently while you wait.
Here are three ideas, all fairly priced and yielding north of 7%.
The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) — With a market cap of over $30 billion, Blackstone is a dominant global player in the alternative investment management business. Focusing on private equity, real estate, hedge fund and other multi asset class strategies, Blackstone manages over $300 billion in assets. Revenue has grown at a healthy annual clip of 8.5%. Even stronger, earnings per share (EPS) have grown by 36% annually for the same time period. The consensus 2016 forecast calls for EPS of $2.50; a 140% bump from last year. With a strong management team led by CEO Steve Schwartzman, the company is well positioned to profit from a low rate environment that drives large investors to seek gains and income in non-traditional spaces. The stock is dirt cheap relative to Blackstone’s consistent operating history. Shares trade around $27 with a forward P/E ratio of 11.43 and a fat yield of 7.8%.
Oneok Partners, LP (NYSE: OKS) — In the boneyard of crushed energy stocks and MLPs (master limited partnerships), Oneok (pronounced “one oak”) has emerged as an extremely strong survivor. The company is one of the nation’s leading transporters of natural gas and natural gas liquids from the mid-continent area to market centers throughout the United States Unlike the exploration and production companies, OKS is essentially just a railroad, moving product from point A to point B. And while their livelihood is tied somewhat in cyclical swings in commodity demand that affect volume, the commodity price has little bearing on profitability. And, as OKS is focused on natural gas, demand has remained steady, thanks electricity producers’ move toward natural gas and away from coal. There has also been a noticeable uptick in the demand for ethane. Analysts forecast call for EPS of $2.30 for 2016 which would be an astonishing 215% jump from last year’s EPS of 73 cents. It’s probably a good place to jump in ahead of earnings, at around $39.40 per unit with an 8.02% distribution.
Recently, I’ve discussed the natural gas market. Here are two other yield plays.
Global X SuperDividend U.S. Exchange Traded Fund (NYSE: DIV) — Rounding out the summer income solution list is a useful ETF that specifically zeroes in on dividends. DIV holds a basket of the 50 highest yielding dividend stocks in the United States, providing diversification across multiple industry sectors. The fund has also done a good job of managing risk with only a 10.55% weighting in MLPs and an even lighter 3.34% in financials; both areas for concern due to the turmoil in the energy space as well as anticipated turmoil in financial stocks due to fears of Fed action on interest rates. Best of all, the fund pays it’s 7.8% distribution on a monthly basis. At $24.68, shares of DIV trade at an attractive 12% discount to their 52 week high.
Risks To Consider: Despite the defensive posture of these stocks, at the end of the day, they are still stocks and therefore subject to equity market volatility, which we will most likely see this summer. However, higher yield stocks that are cheaper relative to the market are historically a little less volatile. Also, if the exact opposite happens and the market enjoys a summer rally, value and income oriented stocks can also lag behind in performance. Two of the three names are forecast to grow earnings, setting the holder up for the potential to defy that conventional wisdom.
Action To Take: As a basket, these stocks generate an annual, blended income stream of 7.89%. In the event of a lackluster to choppy summer market, nervous investors can take comfort in getting paid to wait.
P.S. Everyone knows that dividend payers crush other stocks. It’s not a matter of opinion. You can just look at the stats. But what’s really interesting is why they do so much better. We’ve found the answer here.
Disclosure: Adam Fischbaum holds these stocks in managed client and family accounts.