Artificial intelligence and robotics could dramatically transform every industry over the next decade. From increases in productivity to wage savings and minimizing human error, I’m hard-pressed to find another time in history with as much potential for a corporate profits bonanza.

It’s impossible to predict all the ways this robo-revolution will affect society, but one thing is certain: The replacement of expensive human workers with their efficient robot counterparts will be a boon to the bottom line.

#-ad_banner-#While timelines for widespread adoption in most industries puts this transformation decades out or more, there is one industry that could see massive changes in the next couple of years.

In fact, a robot recently drove 2,400 miles to prove it could do the work of a human worker.

Robots Are Already Behind The Wheel Of The Largest Big Rigs
Embark’s self-driving semi-truck has completed the first cross-country trip from Los Angeles to Jacksonville, Florida. The truck completed the 2,400 mile trip with only rare disengagements that required the driver to take over.

Autonomous driving is developing along multiple paths, which could help the tech find a mass-market solution faster. Embark’s technology uses machine learning along with data from five cameras, three long-range radars, and two light-detecting sensors to map surroundings in real-time. The company plans on installing its technology in at least 40 more trucks by the end of the year.

Others developing self-driving technology, including Alphabet’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) Waymo, are pre-mapping routes and using data from on-board sensors for additional guidance.

Uber’s self-driving startup Otto made its first delivery in 2016, a 120-mile delivery for Anheuser-Busch with the driver sitting in the cabin instead of behind the wheel. The technology is the first to reach ‘Level 4’ autonomous driving, meaning that no driver is required at any point during the journey.

So far, self-driving tech startups and trucking companies have been quick to point out that they don’t want to cause massive layoffs in trucking. The chorus is that truckers will still be needed to drive trucks within the city to make deliveries.

Even if that’s true, the fact that technology will enable a truck to drive itself over long-haul routes with little or no human engagement will inevitably lead to fewer driver hours. The truth is that there’s little keeping the technology from totally replacing drivers within a few years.

Even if initially autonomous trucks are only used for long hauls, it would dramatically reduce man-hours for trucking companies. According to the most recent data from the Department of Labor, there were almost 1.8 million truck drivers employed in 2014 making a median wage of $41,340 per year. Much of that $74.3 billion spent by trucking companies could be saved once self-driving technology is adopted.

The International Transport Forum concluded in a report last year that self-driving trucking could see widespread adoption by 2021 and replace up to 70% of drivers by 2030.

Who Wins In The Trucking Robo-pocalypse?
Even as the technology develops and a driver is required in some capacity, the ability for the truck to handle most of the work will extend driving hours and require less skilled (and less expensive) drivers. According to the American Transportation Research Institute, driver wages make up as much as 40% of the marginal cost per mile for trucking companies.

Combined with cost savings in fuel, the advent of autonomous trucking could mean surging profits for the largest truck operators. I’m looking at four companies in the space to compare drivers as a percentage of total employment, wages, and other metrics.

Old Dominion Freight Line (Nasdaq: ODFL) is a leader in the long-haul, less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers and was able to maintain its rates through the 2008 downturn while maintaining on-time service. While its average driver salary is among the highest, the company is still able to maintain a best-in-class operating margin and trades relatively cheaply to peers.

Earnings are expected to increase 35% over the next four quarters to $5.95 per share on a 13% increase in sales, with the company beating expectations in six of the last eight quarters.

Werner Enterprises (Nasdaq: WERN) competes in the full-truckload (FTL) segment of the industry where drivers deliver entire truck-loads between two points, rather than making many stops to consolidate partial loads as in the LTL segment. This could mean that the company has relatively more to gain from autonomous trucking since highway driving is a larger portion of total drive time.

Earnings are expected to increase 53% over the next four quarters to $1.94 per share on an 11% increase in sales, with the company beating expectations in six of the last eight quarters.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (NYSE: KNX) completed its merger of Knight Transportation and Swift Transportation in September last year to create one of the largest operators in the FTL segment. Drivers as a percentage of total employment is among the highest in the industry, but could come down as the merged company consolidates the business.

Earnings are expected to jump 66% over the next four quarters to $2.28 per share on a 127% increase in sales, though the company has missed earnings expectations in five of the last eight quarters.

JB Hunt Transport Services (Nasdaq: JBHT) specializes in the truck-to-rail intermodal segment of the industry, which means it may not benefit quite as much as the long-haul operators. Wages as a percentage of revenue are the lowest among the four competitors surveyed, though the average driver salary is slightly above the industry average.

Earnings are expected to increase 47% over the next four quarters to $5.27 per share on a 16% increase in sales. The company has missed expectations in six of the last eight quarters.

Risks To Consider: Shares of trucking companies have surged over the last year and are relatively expensive against historical ratios. A market rout could force the industry lower before self-driving trucks cut costs for transports and shares take off.

Action To Take: Position in one of the first industries to see the transformation from autonomous technology and artificial intelligence. Trucking companies with relatively higher driver costs will have the most to gain as self-driving trucks take over.

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