How Will The Market Play In The Second Half Of The Game?

It’s officially summer. I know this based on the regularly scheduled thundershower at 2 p.m. daily and the number of miles put on the family truckster taking my youngest son to college lacrosse prospect camps. It’s also the midway point of the year, which means it’s time to take a look at the market and our portfolios.


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So, how are we doing? If this market had a name, I’d call it the “Larry David Market” after the caustic comic genius who co-created “Seinfeld” and the wonderfully inappropriate “Curb Your Enthusiasm.” That’s the best way to describe what’s going on.

After hitting a record high in January, the S&P 500 has given most of that back and is barely up 1.0% for the year. Does this mean all hopes are dashed from the promising start we had at the beginning of the year? Great question. I wish I could answer it.

What we do know is this:

#-ad_banner-#– The Trump administration is currently instigating trade dust ups globally. Whether there is a specific endgame in mind, or if this is the beginning of a more prolonged trend, is yet to be seen. One thing for certain is that uncertainty has returned to the marketplace (as if “certainty” was ever actually there), which translates into real volatility. As long as trade policy remains vague and the word “tariffs” is bandied about in the media, markets will remain jumpy.

— Interest rates will continue to creep up. After nearly a decade of abnormally, historically low interest rates, things are beginning to normalize. Does that mean sky-high, early-’80s-style 18% CDs and money market accounts? Absolutely not. But it does mean that cost of capital is rising, which may or may not eat into corporate profits, thus hampering growth. It will also put some pressure on bond prices — probably not a great asset class to add to right now. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has risen 18% year to date. That’s a sporty move.

— Again, most of the gains the market chalked up earlier were driven by the FAANG stocks: Facebook (NASDAQ: FB), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) and Google — or Alphabet or whoever the hell they are — (NASDAQ: GOOG). These stocks have had a massive run. But too much is concentrated in one small slice of the pie. When things reverse, and they will, it’ll pull the whole thing down with it.

So, at the halfway point, what do investors do? Here are three steps that make the most sense.

1) Check under the hood. Review the old portfolio. Are things out of whack? There’s no shame in rebalancing by trimming positions that have gotten a little out in front of their skis and shifting to ideas that are still fundamentally sound but may still look like a bargain. Manage the risk. The other day, I reviewed a client’s portfolio and spotted a weakish holding. The outlook for the company lacked confidence. We did the math and, after dividends, she had a slight gain. It made sense to sell. Let worrying about that stock be someone else’s potential problem.

2) Review your goals. Are you retired and managing your portfolio for income and realize you’re loaded up with low- to no-yield growth stocks? It’s time to make some adjustments. As the second half of the year encounters choppier waters, many equity strategists have recommended reducing risk by pivoting toward more defensive stocks in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, utilities, and consumer staples. Some great names that are currently trading at attractive levels include health care giant Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), power producer PPL Corp (NYSE: PPL) and food giant General Mills (NYSE: GIS). Weighted equally, all three yield an average of 4.3% and trade with a forward PE of just 14.17.

3) Practice patience. Six months does not a market make. Market cycles, both bull and bear, often take years to reveal themselves. Stay on your toes, but don’t obsess on the minute-to-minute gyrations of the market. Do you own stocks of companies who have a deep moat franchise, a solid operating history, a healthy and consistently growing dividend? You’re probably ahead of the game thanks to careful screening and selection. You’ve probably got plenty of ballast to weather some near-term turbulence.

Action To Take: There are some genuine headwinds facing the market as it turns the corner on 2018. However, the economic outlook for both the United States and globally is still cautiously optimistic. Look over things, adjust if necessary, and things should be, as Larry David would say: “Prettay…prettay…prettay good.”