Analyst Articles

I make about 90% of my purchases through the Internet. I have grown weary of pushy, obnoxious salespeople who don’t know the product, fighting traffic in parking lots, and the general schlepping that’s required when shopping the old-fashioned way.#-ad_banner-#​ Online shopping not only eliminates most of the headaches of dealing with the world of retail, but it enables wise price shopping and a mind-boggling array of choices, as well as virtually unlimited product information. Combine these benefits with an often sales-tax-free environment, and online shopping makes for a superior method on multiple levels.  However, a… Read More

I make about 90% of my purchases through the Internet. I have grown weary of pushy, obnoxious salespeople who don’t know the product, fighting traffic in parking lots, and the general schlepping that’s required when shopping the old-fashioned way.#-ad_banner-#​ Online shopping not only eliminates most of the headaches of dealing with the world of retail, but it enables wise price shopping and a mind-boggling array of choices, as well as virtually unlimited product information. Combine these benefits with an often sales-tax-free environment, and online shopping makes for a superior method on multiple levels.  However, a recent very pleasant experience at a big-box retailer has started to change my mind about the superiority of online shopping. I needed to purchase a break-resistant and waterproof case for my son’s tablet computer. He had already left it outside on several occasions and managed to cause a slight crack on the corner of the screen. I knew if I didn’t get him a case soon, the $400 device would soon be damaged beyond repair. I didn’t want to wait to an online order to be delivered, so I went to a local Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) to make the… Read More

Consumer credit is a double-edged sword. Used wisely, it enables smart money management and expense tracking. Misused, it can easily become a crushing financial burden that can only end in lifetime poverty and or bankruptcy.#-ad_banner-#​ While the levels of consumer debt have dropped after hitting a high of $1 trillion in July 2008, this number is still about $855 billion. The standard way consumers access this credit is through the ubiquitous plastic credit card. Although the technological infrastructure has changed greatly, the basic card concept has been in use since the 1950s. Today, there are 1.5 billion credit… Read More

Consumer credit is a double-edged sword. Used wisely, it enables smart money management and expense tracking. Misused, it can easily become a crushing financial burden that can only end in lifetime poverty and or bankruptcy.#-ad_banner-#​ While the levels of consumer debt have dropped after hitting a high of $1 trillion in July 2008, this number is still about $855 billion. The standard way consumers access this credit is through the ubiquitous plastic credit card. Although the technological infrastructure has changed greatly, the basic card concept has been in use since the 1950s. Today, there are 1.5 billion credit cards in the United States; the average credit card user has 3.5 cards. The most popular card is Visa (NYSE: V), with 36% of the market, followed by MasterCard (NYSE: MA), with 27% market penetration, and American Express (NYSE: AXP), with a 6.5% market share.   While consumers’ embrace of debt has declined slightly, it shows no signs of abating. However, the way we access our credit lines is about to undergo a revolutionary change. Let me explain. I stopped into my local Starbucks (NYSE: SBUX) recently to pick up a drink and morning snack. The customer in line in… Read More

Like stars in the sky, the sheer number of differing opinions and interpretations of the same financial data is simply mind-boggling. It is said that if you ask three analysts their opinion on the market, you’ll get five different answers. I can’t think of another field of human endeavor that garners so many different ideas from the same data. Even weather forecasting isn’t as open to interpretation as the financial markets. However, this uncertainty is how the market exists. If everyone had the same opinion, there would be no one to buy the selling or sell into the buying. Read More

Like stars in the sky, the sheer number of differing opinions and interpretations of the same financial data is simply mind-boggling. It is said that if you ask three analysts their opinion on the market, you’ll get five different answers. I can’t think of another field of human endeavor that garners so many different ideas from the same data. Even weather forecasting isn’t as open to interpretation as the financial markets. However, this uncertainty is how the market exists. If everyone had the same opinion, there would be no one to buy the selling or sell into the buying.#-ad_banner-#​ The number and range of differing opinions is why I pay particular attention when two ultra-successful investors agree on the same premise. The famed commodity investor Jim Rogers and Fidelity Investments’ best-known mutual fund manager, Peter Lynch, emphasize investing in what you know. The thinking behind this advice is that if you are familiar with a particular business, service or product, not only are you an expert of sorts, but many others are also likely interested in the same things, which helps create a bullish environment. I took this advice to heart when I realized that a… Read More

Allow me to let you in on a closely guarded secret among professional money managers. While they all talk a big game and make it appear that by investing with them you are close to being guaranteed market-beating returns, the truth of the matter is far different.#-ad_banner-# In fact, in the aggregate, the majority even fail to beat the market. Add in the fees, costs and expenses of investing with the professionals, and it seems like a losing proposition. I know this sounds sacrilegious, but the numbers speak for themselves. According to the finance blog Zero Hedge, nearly 90% of… Read More

Allow me to let you in on a closely guarded secret among professional money managers. While they all talk a big game and make it appear that by investing with them you are close to being guaranteed market-beating returns, the truth of the matter is far different.#-ad_banner-# In fact, in the aggregate, the majority even fail to beat the market. Add in the fees, costs and expenses of investing with the professionals, and it seems like a losing proposition. I know this sounds sacrilegious, but the numbers speak for themselves. According to the finance blog Zero Hedge, nearly 90% of all hedge funds, 65% of large-cap core funds, 80% of large-cap value funds and 65% of small-cap mutual funds underperformed the market in 2012.  These facts raise the question: Why do investors continue to pour money into professionally managed funds when the majority fail to deliver even market-beating returns?  Well, the answer is that a few funds deliver outsize returns year after year. This outperformance by the minority keeps the attraction high for the professional money management business. Investors scramble to find the next hot manager and funds on an ongoing basis, which keeps the cash flowing into the pockets… Read More

I don’t care what the bearish pundits are saying about the U.S. economy. While I don’t hesitate to turn bearish if the data bolster that view, I have learned to tune out the unsupported fear-mongering, political posturing and cherry picked-data of the prophets of doom.#-ad_banner-#​ Not only are these agenda-driven observers wrong most of the time, they rarely change their bearish tune. This means that when we actually enter a bear market, the bearish prognosticators claim victory. However, just like a stuck clock that’s right twice a day, the reality of their consistent errors is usually apparent. Clearly,… Read More

I don’t care what the bearish pundits are saying about the U.S. economy. While I don’t hesitate to turn bearish if the data bolster that view, I have learned to tune out the unsupported fear-mongering, political posturing and cherry picked-data of the prophets of doom.#-ad_banner-#​ Not only are these agenda-driven observers wrong most of the time, they rarely change their bearish tune. This means that when we actually enter a bear market, the bearish prognosticators claim victory. However, just like a stuck clock that’s right twice a day, the reality of their consistent errors is usually apparent. Clearly, the current super-bull market is one of global impact. I think the auto sector is undoubtedly supportive of my current ultra-bullish stance. Global auto sales have soared this year on the strength of the continued U.S. economic recovery. Virtually all the major automakers surpassed analysts’ earnings estimates in the second quarter, and 70% came out ahead of revenue estimates. Earnings climbed just over 14% and revenues pushed ahead by nearly 5% year over year. In the United States, auto sales hit a five-year high last year, rising 13% to 14.5 million vehicles. In August of this year, auto sales jumped… Read More

Investors are always looking for the newest strategies and tactics to extract profits from the financial markets. Newer and faster is often believed to be superior to the old, traditional ways of doing things.#-ad_banner-#​ Thanks to technology, this belief holds particularly true when it comes to the financial markets. Today, with the advent of personal computers, stock-screening programs, technical analysis tools with hundreds of built-in indicators, and near-instant news services, investing is easier and more efficient — and hopefully more profitable — than ever. However, sometimes it pays to slow down and look back at the old ways… Read More

Investors are always looking for the newest strategies and tactics to extract profits from the financial markets. Newer and faster is often believed to be superior to the old, traditional ways of doing things.#-ad_banner-#​ Thanks to technology, this belief holds particularly true when it comes to the financial markets. Today, with the advent of personal computers, stock-screening programs, technical analysis tools with hundreds of built-in indicators, and near-instant news services, investing is easier and more efficient — and hopefully more profitable — than ever. However, sometimes it pays to slow down and look back at the old ways of doing things. Taking a step back and slowing down provides an opportunity to locate an overlooked and mostly forgotten money-making tool, method or strategy that remains a solid edge in today’s market. I rediscovered one such strategy — a way to purchase financial assets at a discount — that was first used more than a century ago, in 1893. These investments are often passed down from generation to generation, and they keep on churning out profits for each new holder. Some even have been in continuous operation for the past half-century with the same management team in place. While there… Read More

Striking it rich in the precious metal business is a goal far older than the United States.   In the 19th century, many Americans’ ancestors traveled west across the country with dreams of building new lives. Some ventured west to find freedom and land, others moved west in search of fortune. It was the lure of riches — in the form of precious metals — that attracted these fortune-seekers to the faraway land of California.#-ad_banner-# Known as the California Gold Rush, over 300,000 fortune hunters traveled from all over the world to find wealth in the form of gold nuggets. Read More

Striking it rich in the precious metal business is a goal far older than the United States.   In the 19th century, many Americans’ ancestors traveled west across the country with dreams of building new lives. Some ventured west to find freedom and land, others moved west in search of fortune. It was the lure of riches — in the form of precious metals — that attracted these fortune-seekers to the faraway land of California.#-ad_banner-# Known as the California Gold Rush, over 300,000 fortune hunters traveled from all over the world to find wealth in the form of gold nuggets. Known as forty-niners in reference to the gold rush of 1849, many of the early gold seekers struck it rich while gold was easy to find and retrieve.   As the numbers of fortune seekers increased, however, it became more difficult to discover new sources of gold. Soon, the equation shifted, with most of the new miners losing money on their venture. The easy pickings were gone forever, and only the merchants selling mining supplies and the dream continued to create wealth.    Today, it is still possible — though far more difficult — to build great wealth in the… Read More

I couldn’t believe my good fortune. It was my first day investing with real money at a proprietary trading firm. I had just completed an intensive training course and spent weeks on a stock market simulator with pretend money.#-ad_banner-# A quick primer: Proprietary trading companies hire traders to trade the firm’s money for a split of the profits. Some require traders to post a risk deposit to cover any potential losses. Others don’t require a deposit, but traders take less of the profit because the firm assumes more risk. My first trade was on a small $7 stock that showed… Read More

I couldn’t believe my good fortune. It was my first day investing with real money at a proprietary trading firm. I had just completed an intensive training course and spent weeks on a stock market simulator with pretend money.#-ad_banner-# A quick primer: Proprietary trading companies hire traders to trade the firm’s money for a split of the profits. Some require traders to post a risk deposit to cover any potential losses. Others don’t require a deposit, but traders take less of the profit because the firm assumes more risk. My first trade was on a small $7 stock that showed all the signs of one about to explode on the upside. I purchased the maximum number of shares that the firm permitted and set my stop loss — and to my amazement, the price took off to the upside. By the end of the trading day, I had banked a $2,500 profit after splitting with the firm. Not bad for the first day on the job, I thought. My phone rang — it was the managing director of the firm requesting my immediate presence in his office. I hadn’t met him, but I thought that surely he wanted to congratulate… Read More

I love finding little stocks that have a strong possibility of doubling or even tripling in a short period of time.#-ad_banner-# I uncover them by running technical screens on stocks trading under $10. My screens search for companies that have been knocked off their highs then built technical support and rebounded above their 50-day simple moving averages.  Once the screen has found suitable candidates, I drill down into fundamentals, economic conditions and potential catalysts that could power the little stock higher. Many beaten-down stocks experience a rebound from their lows, only to drop back down to those lows or even… Read More

I love finding little stocks that have a strong possibility of doubling or even tripling in a short period of time.#-ad_banner-# I uncover them by running technical screens on stocks trading under $10. My screens search for companies that have been knocked off their highs then built technical support and rebounded above their 50-day simple moving averages.  Once the screen has found suitable candidates, I drill down into fundamentals, economic conditions and potential catalysts that could power the little stock higher. Many beaten-down stocks experience a rebound from their lows, only to drop back down to those lows or even further — the so-called dead cat bounce. My fundamental, economic and catalyst screen, which I call Price Drivers, adds support to the technical picture.  I firmly believe that technical analysis plays a powerful role in stock analysis, but it cannot stand on its own as a decision-making tool. Traders need to understand what’s behind the price moves to make profitable decisions. Price alone isn’t adequate for the vast majority of situations.  The latest stock to pass my technical and fundamental Price Drivers screens is Brazilian telecommunications company Oi (NYSE: OIBR), which trades on the New York Stock Exchange as an… Read More