Business school professors often speak of the “efficient-market hypothesis,” which posits that stock prices reflect all available public information and therefore are never overvalued or undervalued; they’re, instead, are perfectly valued. These professors are wrong. In many instances, the market gets it wrong, and a stock can remain mispriced, even after an important piece of news is digested by buyers and sellers. I was reminded of this after looking at the stock action of Assured Guaranty (NYSE: AGO) on Friday, April 15. The company’s stock rose 24% in just one day, but as you more… Read More

Business school professors often speak of the “efficient-market hypothesis,” which posits that stock prices reflect all available public information and therefore are never overvalued or undervalued; they’re, instead, are perfectly valued. These professors are wrong. In many instances, the market gets it wrong, and a stock can remain mispriced, even after an important piece of news is digested by buyers and sellers. I was reminded of this after looking at the stock action of Assured Guaranty (NYSE: AGO) on Friday, April 15. The company’s stock rose 24% in just one day, but as you more deeply analyze the news that affected the stock, it’s easy to conclude that shares should have risen by a good deal more than that. The process may take several weeks or months, but when complete, this $17 stock could shoot up into the low to mid-$20s. Bank of America’s mea culpa Assured Guaranty provides insurance to bond buyers. If those bonds default, then the buyers can make a claim. It’s been a very lucrative business for many years, controlled by Assured Guaranty, MBIA (NYSE: MBI) and Ambac Financial (Nasdaq:… Read More

February 18, 2011 may turn out to be a notable day for investors. That’s when the S&P 500 hit a 30-month high. Since then, the index has plunged, rebounded and cooled anew, even as global conditions have become much more challenging. Throw in the fact that consumer sentiment and spending levels are dropping as gas prices rise, and we may not reach back to those February highs for the rest of the year. At least that’s how short-sellers hope things will play out. They’re stepping up bearish bets, hoping the broader market will help their investment… Read More

February 18, 2011 may turn out to be a notable day for investors. That’s when the S&P 500 hit a 30-month high. Since then, the index has plunged, rebounded and cooled anew, even as global conditions have become much more challenging. Throw in the fact that consumer sentiment and spending levels are dropping as gas prices rise, and we may not reach back to those February highs for the rest of the year. At least that’s how short-sellers hope things will play out. They’re stepping up bearish bets, hoping the broader market will help their investment targets to fall in price. If they’re wrong and the market can power up to new highs, then these short sellers may be forced to close out those bearish bets and re-buy shares, unwittingly adding buying pressure to the very stocks they want to go down. With that in mind, I’m looking at three stocks that are increasingly in the sights of short sellers. Each stock has seen at least a 25% spike in short interest in the two weeks ended March 30. What do the shorts see? And how will this play out?… Read More

In the world of investing, no news can often be good news. A wide range of energy sources have been hit by bad news in recent months. Yet one key energy source has been out of the spotlight, but is likely to actually benefit from the unfolding events of 2011. Read More

It can pay to keep an eye on companies that have been public for only a few quarters. Many of them stumble out of the gate and get lost in the crowd. By the time these companies start to get back on track, you may be one of the few… Read More

For much of the past 18 months, it’s been fair to question whether the economy is truly on the mend. Not anymore. The recent employment trends have started cement a new reality: companies are starting to rebuild their workforces and consumer spending may finally turn up to a higher… Read More

Score one for the bulls. When I recommended shares of Couer D’Alene Mines Corp. (NYSE: CDE) back in late January, there was a raging debate about whether silver prices would rally to new highs or finally come back to earth. I thought the bulls had a stronger case,… Read More

When seeking out new investment ideas, I like to run stock screens to find companies that are inexpensive and relatively “safe.” Of course, one of the safest kinds of companies is one that is profitable, yet also has lots of cash on the books. In fact, some companies are so cash-rich that even after accounting for any borrowings, their cash can equate to 20%, 30% or even 40% of the entire company’s market value.  If you think about it, that also means these companies are fairly loathed by investors. Read More

When seeking out new investment ideas, I like to run stock screens to find companies that are inexpensive and relatively “safe.” Of course, one of the safest kinds of companies is one that is profitable, yet also has lots of cash on the books. In fact, some companies are so cash-rich that even after accounting for any borrowings, their cash can equate to 20%, 30% or even 40% of the entire company’s market value.  If you think about it, that also means these companies are fairly loathed by investors. It’s not just that they have so much cash, it also means their market value has slumped so low that the company isn’t really worth much more than that cash. All of the companies on the list above have real problems. Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), for example, has seen its shares fall back to levels seen in 1998, as sales growth has slowed. And all of that cash can’t always buy happiness. Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) has made a half-dozen key acquisitions in the past two years, yet analysts still think sales will only grow 4% to… Read More

“Beat and Raise.” The pattern of beating estimates and raising forward guidance has been the key theme in each earnings season of the past two years. This time will be different. The “beat” part will likely hold as companies and the analysts that follow them continue to play the game of low expectations that then get exceeded. The “raise” part? That just got much trickier. Companies raise guidance when they have a lot of certainty about what the coming months will bring. Right now, few can say with certainty about how… Read More

“Beat and Raise.” The pattern of beating estimates and raising forward guidance has been the key theme in each earnings season of the past two years. This time will be different. The “beat” part will likely hold as companies and the analysts that follow them continue to play the game of low expectations that then get exceeded. The “raise” part? That just got much trickier. Companies raise guidance when they have a lot of certainty about what the coming months will bring. Right now, few can say with certainty about how the wide range of domestic and global events will play out. Here’s a checklist of the issues these companies face. Later on, I’ll look at the potential impact on specific sectors.   Oil prices bring caution. Expect a number of companies, especially those that are focused on consumers or have high transportation costs, to express real concern about surging oil. Stressed consumers are in no mood to help shoulder the burden. For example, airlines had successfully pushed through six fare hikes since the start of the year. On the seventh try, consumers appear to have balked and airlines had… Read More

For the past five months, I’ve grown increasingly concerned about the steady surge in oil prices. Back in November,I noted that several sectors could be affected if oil moved past $100 a barrel. With oil now approaching $110 a barrel, you can forget that qualified statement. Oil will affect various swaths in the economy. Here’s why…   Some market watchers suggest oil has only temporarily moved onto a higher plane and that prices will eventually come back down. Then again, they’ve been saying that for the past six… Read More

For the past five months, I’ve grown increasingly concerned about the steady surge in oil prices. Back in November,I noted that several sectors could be affected if oil moved past $100 a barrel. With oil now approaching $110 a barrel, you can forget that qualified statement. Oil will affect various swaths in the economy. Here’s why…   Some market watchers suggest oil has only temporarily moved onto a higher plane and that prices will eventually come back down. Then again, they’ve been saying that for the past six months. It’s increasingly hard to see why oil prices will suddenly pull back. “The turmoil in the Middle East is unlikely to be resolved quickly or easily, meaning that oil market volatility is likely to remain high,” analysts at Merrill Lynch say. At this point, the only major catalyst to bring oil prices back down (besides a sudden resolution to all of the Middle East’s troubles) would be a slump in demand. And demand would only fall because oil prices rose so high that they choked off economic activity. Read More

Many investors tend to focus on how a stock will fare in coming weeks and months. Company executives have a very different task. They need to stay focused on a much bigger picture, building a business that can grow for years to come. If investors push a stock down due to near-term issues, then executives have a clear move to make: Buy company shares while they’re not fully appreciated. Here are two stocks that have been pursued by insiders in recent weeks. Later on, I’ll give my take on whether or not they are compelling “buys”… Read More

Many investors tend to focus on how a stock will fare in coming weeks and months. Company executives have a very different task. They need to stay focused on a much bigger picture, building a business that can grow for years to come. If investors push a stock down due to near-term issues, then executives have a clear move to make: Buy company shares while they’re not fully appreciated. Here are two stocks that have been pursued by insiders in recent weeks. Later on, I’ll give my take on whether or not they are compelling “buys” right now… Rentrak (Nasdaq: RENT) When information and media-measuring firm Nielsen Holdings (Nasdaq: NLSN) pulled off an initial public offering (IPO) in January, many institutional investors gave the $10 billion (in market value) company a fresh look. But they may be wiser to give industry upstart Rentrak their attention instead. This $300 million company is slowly stealing business away from Nielsen and some analysts think the company can be an earnings powerhouse in a few years. If you came… Read More