From employment trends to factory production levels to trade figures, all signs are pointing to an improving U.S. economy. And in the early stages of any economic rebound, investors always flock to stocks with small market capitalizations. Back in 1990, when the economy was about to break out of its shell, the Russell 2000 Index, which focuses on small cap stocks, rose 100% during the next 36 months. These days, these small caps are back in vogue again. The Russell 2000 has risen… Read More

From employment trends to factory production levels to trade figures, all signs are pointing to an improving U.S. economy. And in the early stages of any economic rebound, investors always flock to stocks with small market capitalizations. Back in 1990, when the economy was about to break out of its shell, the Russell 2000 Index, which focuses on small cap stocks, rose 100% during the next 36 months. These days, these small caps are back in vogue again. The Russell 2000 has risen for seven of the last eight months. The index is now within just a few points of all-time highs hit back in 2007. Unlike blue chip stocks found in the S&P 500, smaller company stocks in the Russell 2000 tend to be much more volatile. Of course, that means even bigger gains in rising markets for some names. Right now, I’m taking a closer look at the hottest small caps, those Russell 2000 components that rose more than 50% in March. These sharp moves may be a harbinger of even better days ahead, or… Read More

The stock market continues to rack up nice gains. The S&P 500 rose 5.4% in the first quarter (after rising roughly 10% in each of the prior two quarters). If you’re keeping score, that first quarter gain was the best for the S&P 500 since 1998. Yet some stocks are missing out on all the fun. I’ve come across more than a dozen stocks in the S&P 500 that actually fell by 15% — or more — in the first quarter. These companies have suffered their own self-inflicted wounds, but in some cases, they are already on… Read More

The stock market continues to rack up nice gains. The S&P 500 rose 5.4% in the first quarter (after rising roughly 10% in each of the prior two quarters). If you’re keeping score, that first quarter gain was the best for the S&P 500 since 1998. Yet some stocks are missing out on all the fun. I’ve come across more than a dozen stocks in the S&P 500 that actually fell by 15% — or more — in the first quarter. These companies have suffered their own self-inflicted wounds, but in some cases, they are already on the mend. Let’s take a look at which ones are most likely to bounce back in the second quarter and beyond.   The fact that consumer-focused stocks such as RadioShack (NYSE: RSH), Urban Outfitters (Nasdaq: URBN), Target (NYSE: TGT), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) and Carnival (NYSE: CCL) are likely to fare so poorly at a time of improving employment numbers is a bit curious. But if you dig a little deeper, you can start to see why. For example, Urban Outfitters delivered weak results for the all-important January quarter, and… Read More

Analysts love to grab headlines. And to do this, they often resort to their favorite ploy: The super-sized price target. So when analysts at Morgan Stanley predicted that GM (NYSE: GM) might eventually soar to $100, I and others sat up and took notice. Morgan Stanley’s analysts predicted that shares would start to build higher right away on the heels of yet-to-be-released fourth quarter results. To be fair, their $100 target was predicated on results several years into the future. But so far, this bold prediction looks like a dud. The stock is off 18%… Read More

Analysts love to grab headlines. And to do this, they often resort to their favorite ploy: The super-sized price target. So when analysts at Morgan Stanley predicted that GM (NYSE: GM) might eventually soar to $100, I and others sat up and took notice. Morgan Stanley’s analysts predicted that shares would start to build higher right away on the heels of yet-to-be-released fourth quarter results. To be fair, their $100 target was predicated on results several years into the future. But so far, this bold prediction looks like a dud. The stock is off 18% since we looked at this investment thesis, trading right around its 52-week low. Were the analysts flat wrong? Or were they simply premature? Let’s take a look…   In hindsight, the analysts overlooked one major point of concern: rising oil prices. GM, along with Ford (NYSE: F), remains highly dependent on pick-up trucks and SUVs for the bulk of profits. Generally speaking, the bigger the vehicle, the fatter the profit margin. Crisis in the Middle East has helped fuel an oil price spike, leading many to conclude that truck sales, which had… Read More

For private equity (PE) firms, 2011 is the year of goldilocks — everything’s just right. Interest rates are low, the increasingly stable economy is pumping up corporate cash flows, and if you look hard enough, real bargains can be had. #-ad_banner-#The key for PE firms (also known as leveraged buyout shops) is to find companies that throw off lots of cash flow and also come with very healthy balance sheets. That way, a company can be acquired with its own cash and new loans, putting the buyout firms… Read More

For private equity (PE) firms, 2011 is the year of goldilocks — everything’s just right. Interest rates are low, the increasingly stable economy is pumping up corporate cash flows, and if you look hard enough, real bargains can be had. #-ad_banner-#The key for PE firms (also known as leveraged buyout shops) is to find companies that throw off lots of cash flow and also come with very healthy balance sheets. That way, a company can be acquired with its own cash and new loans, putting the buyout firms on the hook for only a moderate amount of upfront cash. Ideally, they look to take these companies public again a few years later (though with much weaker balance sheets by then). That’s what has happened to the likes of Hertz (NYSE: HTZ), hospital chain HCA (NYSE: HCA) and Burger King. A little sleuthing has revealed a list of companies that may now be in focus for a major deal in 2011. These companies are big enough (with a market value above $750 million) but not too big (with a… Read More

The current social unrest spreading throughout the Middle East has its roots in many causes. In some places, despotic leadership is no longer being tolerated. In other instances, such as Bahrain, religious groups that constitute a majority of the population have been shut out of important roles in the economy. Yet in all of the countries involved, one clear theme has emerged: The citizens are tired of corrupt, sclerotic and nepotistic leaders, and simply want improved access and a shot at a better lifestyle. What’s in the interests of these citizens is also in the… Read More

The current social unrest spreading throughout the Middle East has its roots in many causes. In some places, despotic leadership is no longer being tolerated. In other instances, such as Bahrain, religious groups that constitute a majority of the population have been shut out of important roles in the economy. Yet in all of the countries involved, one clear theme has emerged: The citizens are tired of corrupt, sclerotic and nepotistic leaders, and simply want improved access and a shot at a better lifestyle. What’s in the interests of these citizens is also in the interest of investors. Corruption-free, merit-based economies are always the best place to do business. That’s why the Heritage Foundation annually issues a Freedom Index of 10 components that measure a series of “economic freedoms” such as business freedom, trade freedom, fiscal freedom, property rights and corruption. It’s no coincidence that Iran, Syria, Algeria, Yemen, Tunisia and Morocco all occupy the bottom half of the Freedom Index rankings. Unless you are a member of the elite in these countries and have the ability to bribe and cajole your way into key business relationships, you… Read More

[Editor’s Note: On Wednesday, Andy Obermueller, editor of Game-Changing Stocks, gave his take on the resignation of David Sokol, one of the frontrunners to replace Warren Buffett at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway. Now, it looks like Ajit Jain, Buffett’s insurance man extrordinaire, may be “the man.” Funny enough, StreetAuthority’s… Read More

After a pair of stopgap funding measures, Washington is getting ready to play hardball on the government budget. Both sides have drawn clear lines in the sand, and April 8 looms as the day when government buildings could be officially locked, government employees told to stay home and all non-essential services could grind to a halt. Whether the shutdown lasts a few days or a few weeks, your portfolio will feel the impact. And you need to start preparing now…   Too many uncertainties Investors crave certainty. Yet this is an especially murky time. Key questions need… Read More

After a pair of stopgap funding measures, Washington is getting ready to play hardball on the government budget. Both sides have drawn clear lines in the sand, and April 8 looms as the day when government buildings could be officially locked, government employees told to stay home and all non-essential services could grind to a halt. Whether the shutdown lasts a few days or a few weeks, your portfolio will feel the impact. And you need to start preparing now…   Too many uncertainties Investors crave certainty. Yet this is an especially murky time. Key questions need to be asked. Will Japan’s economy go into recession as its government tackles the economic effect of the current crisis? How will the Middle East play out (and what will happen to oil prices)? Will more European economies need a bailout? How will the U.S. markets handle the end of the Federal Reserve’s second round of quantitative easing (QE2)? [I also wrote earlier about how investors’ record levels of borrowing on margin could bring the market crashing down…] The market has climbed a “wall of worry” in recent quarters, but the wall keeps getting… Read More

Success breeds confidence. When it comes to investing, that’s not always a good thing. Some investors see a rising portfolio and start to figure out ways to keep their returns moving higher. The simplest way to magnify returns is to borrow money from a broker and re-invest those funds, a practice known as “investing on margin.” Yet, when investors have started to buy more and more stocks on margin, they often set the stage for cascading declines in the stock market as margin calls beget yet more selling. That’s why you should be… Read More

Success breeds confidence. When it comes to investing, that’s not always a good thing. Some investors see a rising portfolio and start to figure out ways to keep their returns moving higher. The simplest way to magnify returns is to borrow money from a broker and re-invest those funds, a practice known as “investing on margin.” Yet, when investors have started to buy more and more stocks on margin, they often set the stage for cascading declines in the stock market as margin calls beget yet more selling. That’s why you should be concerned that investing on margin is back in vogue, whether you are doing it yourself or not. #-ad_banner-#A lesson not learned On March 9, 2000, the Nasdaq index moved up above 5,000 for the first-time ever as investors put increasing amounts of money into scorching tech stocks. Part of that was fueled by a then-record $275 billion in funds that investors had borrowed from their brokers. Many of these investors were leveraged to the hilt, right up to the maximum allowable borrowing limit of 50% of a portfolio.   That high level of… Read More

Whenever a stock takes a major hit, I like to wait a few days before assessing the wreckage. It gives time to let the issues clarify and provides a chance to see where shares end up once investors have finished selling. After plunging from $64… Read More

If you’re the CEO of a large corporation, you do not want to see your company’s name in this article. The companies in this article stumbled — badly — in the past year and have seen their shares prices fall by half — or… Read More