When a company is in deep distress, its board of directors is willing to take big chances. Acknowledging that its legacy Internet access business would soon stop throwing off gobs of cash, AOL (NYSE: AOL) handed the reins to Tim Armstrong, a thirty-something Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) veteran. He pitched a radical vision to the board: amass a broad roster of experienced journalists, develop a wide range of segment-leading websites, and watch the ad dollars roll in. That plan surely carries risk at a time when online ad rates continue to badly lag ad rates found in other… Read More

When a company is in deep distress, its board of directors is willing to take big chances. Acknowledging that its legacy Internet access business would soon stop throwing off gobs of cash, AOL (NYSE: AOL) handed the reins to Tim Armstrong, a thirty-something Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) veteran. He pitched a radical vision to the board: amass a broad roster of experienced journalists, develop a wide range of segment-leading websites, and watch the ad dollars roll in. That plan surely carries risk at a time when online ad rates continue to badly lag ad rates found in other forms of media. Indeed, the results of Armstrong’s turnaround plan have been unimpressive, but he’s sticking to his guns with a newly-announced acquisition of The Huffington Post. Armstrong is now approaching his two-year anniversary with AOL, and two years hence, the deal to acquire Huffington Post will be looked back as a make-or-break moment for the company. Let’s peer into the future to see how it will play out. No choice Doing nothing was not an option for AOL’s board. Sales had fallen 47% in the two years before Armstrong arrived, though they… Read More

Policy planners in Washington just caught a big break. They’ve been repeatedly trying to prod China to strengthen its currency — to no avail — but larger economic forces may yield the same benefit. Prices are starting to bubble up in China and, if you connect the dots, you can start to see myriad benefits for the U.S. economy and U.S. stocks. A slow build The Chinese economy has been able to grow at a rapid clip for more than a decade without any price pressures — a feat that is… Read More

Policy planners in Washington just caught a big break. They’ve been repeatedly trying to prod China to strengthen its currency — to no avail — but larger economic forces may yield the same benefit. Prices are starting to bubble up in China and, if you connect the dots, you can start to see myriad benefits for the U.S. economy and U.S. stocks. A slow build The Chinese economy has been able to grow at a rapid clip for more than a decade without any price pressures — a feat that is largely unparalleled in the modern era. Not anymore. Inflation in China started to perk up in 2010 and finished the year at a peak, with inflation now running close to 5%. (The official figure released by the Chinese government is a bit lower, while analysts at HSBC in Hong Kong think it’s a bit higher than that rate). The reasons for rising inflation are pretty straightforward and can be explained by the notion of “capacity utilization.” As is the case with any industry, prices remain stable as long as producers have excess production capacity. Read More

To make money in stocks, you need to tie together various threads of information to see what it might mean for your investments. Right now, a pair of disparate data points has caught my attention: rising oil prices and a trio of unloved stocks that may really benefit from it. Read More

When Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) announced plans in mid-January to spend an eye-popping $9 billion on capital spending, tech analysts sat up and took notice. Many of them have been lukewarm on chip stocks for so long that they simply didn’t see it coming. And when Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) followed up with similarly aggressive plans for 2011, it became apparent that the entire chip industry was now in full-growth mode. The prime beneficiary of the newfound momentum in capital equipment spending: Applied Materials (Nasdaq: AMAT). I told readers to buy shares two months ago,… Read More

When Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) announced plans in mid-January to spend an eye-popping $9 billion on capital spending, tech analysts sat up and took notice. Many of them have been lukewarm on chip stocks for so long that they simply didn’t see it coming. And when Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) followed up with similarly aggressive plans for 2011, it became apparent that the entire chip industry was now in full-growth mode. The prime beneficiary of the newfound momentum in capital equipment spending: Applied Materials (Nasdaq: AMAT). I told readers to buy shares two months ago, as there was simply too much pessimism around the world’s largest semiconductor capital equipment firm. And it looks as if The Street is still underestimating this tech powerhouse. The recent 28% spike in the stock was impressive, but I see another 25% or so move coming this spring.     On its way to $20? As I’ve noted in the past, analysts tend to move very slowly, judging stocks by how the next quarter will fare. Price targets are raised and lowered based on updated 90-day forecasts. But when… Read More

The stock market is dominated by traders and investors. Traders simply focus on today’s market action. Investors hold a much broader view, finding winning stocks that will ride future trends. In recent sessions, traders have found plenty to dislike about employment search firm Monster Worldwide (NYSE: MWW). Shares were… Read More

Want a peek at this summer’s headlines? Then just watch the action in the oil market. The price of oil has been rising steadily for nearly two years, and it’s coming close to the point of inflicting real pain on many businesses. If current trends continue, we may be talking about $4 for a gallon of gasoline by spring, and surging home heating oil costs later in the year. In many respects, the United States can tolerate $70 oil, or even $90 oil. But at $100 or even $110, so many companies will start speaking of profit-margin… Read More

Want a peek at this summer’s headlines? Then just watch the action in the oil market. The price of oil has been rising steadily for nearly two years, and it’s coming close to the point of inflicting real pain on many businesses. If current trends continue, we may be talking about $4 for a gallon of gasoline by spring, and surging home heating oil costs later in the year. In many respects, the United States can tolerate $70 oil, or even $90 oil. But at $100 or even $110, so many companies will start speaking of profit-margin pressures. And profit margins are the key factor behind many strategists’ forecasts for continued stock market gains in 2011. This is why you should be worried, even if you don’t own oil stocks in your portfolio. Up until now, stocks have been rallying in tandem with oil prices. That’s quite unusual. We’ve been in a rare period where rising economic activity has been good for both assets. Yet if history is any guide, further oil price spikes will tend to deflate stock prices. Here are three stocks in particular that simply cannot… Read More

A healthy cushion of cash is always valued by large, stable companies. Many companies make good use of that cash by buying back their own stock. Just a few weeks into earnings season, we’ve already seen a hefty slate of new stock buyback announcements. Read More

#-ad_banner-#It’s one of the first rules of investing: find stocks with strong earnings growth and reasonable valuations. We’re even taught a simple formula: look for stocks that have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio that is lower than the earnings growth rate, or, a PEG ratio (P/E divided by the earnings growth rate) lower than 1.0. Yet the converse is also true. Stocks with a PEG ratio over 1.0 can be overvalued. It happens without many investors even noticing. A stock rises and rises… Read More

#-ad_banner-#It’s one of the first rules of investing: find stocks with strong earnings growth and reasonable valuations. We’re even taught a simple formula: look for stocks that have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio that is lower than the earnings growth rate, or, a PEG ratio (P/E divided by the earnings growth rate) lower than 1.0. Yet the converse is also true. Stocks with a PEG ratio over 1.0 can be overvalued. It happens without many investors even noticing. A stock rises and rises until its value becomes disconnected from the reality on the ground. A high PEG ratio can limit further upside and make a stock especially ripe for a pullback in down markets. On the flip side, it can also make for a nice stock to short. Here’s a look at three stocks with alarmingly high PEG ratios. Each of the stocks on this table trade at least 50% above fair value when the PEG ratio test is applied. Salesforce.com (Nasdaq: CRM) This provider of contact relationship software has seen its shares fall roughly… Read More

When you think about ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), you think of oil. A steady focus on “black gold” has enabled the company to become the most valuable company on the planet. But with oil prices steadily rising and natural gas prices flat-lined during the past year, it may surprise you that… Read More

Bull markets can be broken into several phases. At first, investors seek out large stable companies, tentatively stepping into stocks while still a bit unsure if the rally will last. As a rally builds, investors start to migrate into the tried-and-true growth stocks, such as major Nasdaq technology stocks. Only… Read More