As we enter 2011, investing abroad has become awfully tricky. Emerging market economies have been the shining stars of the past few years, and many of their stock markets have been on a tear. As I noted a few weeks ago,  some of them have seen their markets double in… Read More

Historians will look back at December 2010 as a watershed moment. At the beginning of the month, a courageous group of bipartisan souls announced a blueprint to stem the runaway tide of red ink. A couple weeks later, Congress and President Barack Obama agreed upon extending the Bush-era tax-cut package… Read More

A perfect storm was brewing for the coal industry in 2008: carbon-capping climate legislation looked increasingly likely to be approved, demand for electricity began to fall sharply and natural gas — which can also replace coal in many power plants — saw a sharp price drop. In addition, the incoming… Read More

I was running through my colleague Brad Briggs’ recent look back at the silver crisis of the 1970s. He described a cautionary tale about investors chasing the commodity when its price was no longer connected to any sort of fundamental value. Needless to say, the silver bubble was eventually pricked: “With prices so high, people began selling all the silver they could get their hands on. Prices plummeted 50.0% in four days,” Briggs wrote. There is another metal that’s showing all the signs of a mania: copper. I don’t expect a sudden plunge as was… Read More

I was running through my colleague Brad Briggs’ recent look back at the silver crisis of the 1970s. He described a cautionary tale about investors chasing the commodity when its price was no longer connected to any sort of fundamental value. Needless to say, the silver bubble was eventually pricked: “With prices so high, people began selling all the silver they could get their hands on. Prices plummeted 50.0% in four days,” Briggs wrote. There is another metal that’s showing all the signs of a mania: copper. I don’t expect a sudden plunge as was the case with silver 30 years ago, but the price of this metal and of its key stocks are floating on a bed of complacency. This could all end soon thanks to a couple of occurrences that are happening offstage, but that may actually be advantageous in the short term. Copper prices have been steadily rebounding for the last two years as global demand perks up. The metal has many uses in construction, from plumbing to wiring to refrigeration coils. China, with its inexorable thirst for new building construction, has been a key driver for copper. This… Read More

[This is a continuation of “10 Bold Predictions for 2011: Part 1”] 6. Individual investors finally start to re-enter U.S. equities in a major way in 2011 as the need to build savings in the face of looming retirements becomes a major consumer concern, and rising savings levels… Read More

As you continually assess current events for any impact on your portfolio, you also need to spend time thinking about what events may be on the horizon. And although none of us has a crystal ball, it’s important to try to anticipate the direction of economics, sector activity, politics and any other issues that may affect the investment environment. The list below contains possible scenarios for the next 12 months that could impact your portfolio in a meaningful way. 1. New jobless claims fall below 400,000 in the first quarter, and meaningful job… Read More

As you continually assess current events for any impact on your portfolio, you also need to spend time thinking about what events may be on the horizon. And although none of us has a crystal ball, it’s important to try to anticipate the direction of economics, sector activity, politics and any other issues that may affect the investment environment. The list below contains possible scenarios for the next 12 months that could impact your portfolio in a meaningful way. 1. New jobless claims fall below 400,000 in the first quarter, and meaningful job creation begins in earnest in 2011 as companies realize that they’ve squeezed out all possible productivity enhancements and need to re-build depleted workforces. The unemployment rate is slow to fall, as previously discouraged workers start to look for work again. But investors focus on the monthly jobs creation number instead of the actual unemployment rate. 2. Noting the impressive synergies that Delta (NYSE: DAL) derived from its merger with Northwest (which were only belatedly appreciated by investors), investors continue to bid up shares of UAL… Read More

Even as we look to post 10% to 15% annual gains for our portfolios, the occasional 50% gainer never hurts. So I like to look at the market’s biggest winners to see what’s working right now. Some of these big gainers may even have more room to run. Read More

The Republican and Democratic positions on the long-term budget woes are clear: The GOP has pushed strongly for sharp spending cuts to help bring down the national debt, while the Democrats believe current spending efforts to get the economy on track now will boost government revenue and close… Read More

Carl Icahn has a pretty simple formula for investing: Find a company with unappreciated assets and a sleepy management team, rattle a few cages, and wait for shares to finally appreciate. That’s what he did with Motorola (NYSE: MOT) and many other companies over the years. [Read my take on that here.] He doesn’t always succeed, but several big hits have pushed him into the billionaire’s club (he’s actually worth an estimated $8.9 billion, according to Forbes). He’s at it again. Icahn has been buying up shares of natural gas firm Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:… Read More

Carl Icahn has a pretty simple formula for investing: Find a company with unappreciated assets and a sleepy management team, rattle a few cages, and wait for shares to finally appreciate. That’s what he did with Motorola (NYSE: MOT) and many other companies over the years. [Read my take on that here.] He doesn’t always succeed, but several big hits have pushed him into the billionaire’s club (he’s actually worth an estimated $8.9 billion, according to Forbes). He’s at it again. Icahn has been buying up shares of natural gas firm Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK), and is gearing up some fresh cage rattling. Icahn just announced in a 13-D filing that his firm now owns 5.8% of the company and “intends to seek to continue to have conversations with the company’s management to discuss the business & operations of the company and the maximization of shareholder value.” There’s one small problem: Chesapeake’s CEO Aubrey McClendon is stubborn as a mule, and not likely to warm to Icahn’s overtures. As I noted this summer, McClendon thinks he’s smarter than his peers and can identify cheap assets better than anyone else. But I… Read More

As gold flirts with all-time (non inflation-adjusted) highs, many investors wonder whether gold can surge yet higher, or if we’re merely in a bubble. Although we lack a crystal ball on that question, we do know some basic facts that help to explain just how far from a baseline value that yellow metal has come. Gold serves four main purposes: 1. As a key ingredient in a range of industrial processes 2. Jewelry 3. As a key asset held by governments that can be used in trade when they want to take… Read More

As gold flirts with all-time (non inflation-adjusted) highs, many investors wonder whether gold can surge yet higher, or if we’re merely in a bubble. Although we lack a crystal ball on that question, we do know some basic facts that help to explain just how far from a baseline value that yellow metal has come. Gold serves four main purposes: 1. As a key ingredient in a range of industrial processes 2. Jewelry 3. As a key asset held by governments that can be used in trade when they want to take steps to fund their budget deficits or provide confidence in their currencies 4. As a hedge by investors that fear eventual high inflation. It’s that last factor that has caused gold to nearly triple in the past five years to around $1,400 an ounce. It’s hard to get a true read of how much gold is bought and sold between countries. Some countries have sold off major gold reserves, while others have loaded up on it. Assume that major governments do not impact gold, and… Read More