One of the most interesting indicators used in the financial markets is the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). The index, created and maintained by the London-based Baltic Exchange, measures the price of shipping raw materials such as iron ore, coal and grains around… Read More

As we headed into Labor Day, stocks could muster little enthusiasm. A creeping sense that the economy was slowing led to fresh concerns of the dreaded “double-dip” recession. The Federal Reserve was also seeing signs of a slowdown. As a remedy, The Fed began to speak of a tool in its arsenal to help jolt the economy to life. That tool, known as Quantitative Easing (QE), changed the entire perception of the stock market. Investors came to see that… Read More

As we headed into Labor Day, stocks could muster little enthusiasm. A creeping sense that the economy was slowing led to fresh concerns of the dreaded “double-dip” recession. The Federal Reserve was also seeing signs of a slowdown. As a remedy, The Fed began to speak of a tool in its arsenal to help jolt the economy to life. That tool, known as Quantitative Easing (QE), changed the entire perception of the stock market. Investors came to see that the Fed’s move had a real chance of getting the economic ball rolling, which was enough to fuel a heady rally in September that has continued into October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average now sits near its 52-week high. But it’s fair to wonder if this steady gain has already accounted for benefits that may be derived from the Fed’s much-discussed QE plans. And it’s also fair to mistrust these kinds of rallies. The Dow surged more than +10% last February and March only to give back all those gains… Read More

Before the economic crisis took hold, the U.S. dollar began a steady downward drift as global investors started to realize that economic growth would be more robust elsewhere in the world. The dollar’s slump was also due to never-ending trade deficits, which had long been expected to weaken the greenback, and finally did so beginning in late 2004. During the next 30 months, the U.S. dollar, compared to the euro, fell from 0.86 euros to 0.63 — a -25% drop. With concerns about the global economic crisis receding, the dollar is… Read More

Before the economic crisis took hold, the U.S. dollar began a steady downward drift as global investors started to realize that economic growth would be more robust elsewhere in the world. The dollar’s slump was also due to never-ending trade deficits, which had long been expected to weaken the greenback, and finally did so beginning in late 2004. During the next 30 months, the U.S. dollar, compared to the euro, fell from 0.86 euros to 0.63 — a -25% drop. With concerns about the global economic crisis receding, the dollar is back on a downward path. As I noted recently, the dollar “now stands at all-time lows against the Australian dollar and the Swiss franc, a 15-year low against the Japanese yen, and more recent lows against the euro.” [What the Global Currency Wars Mean for Your Portfolio] That recent downward move should have an almost immediate impact: export-related profits are bound to come in higher than forecasts in the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011 as those earnings get repatriated back into dollars. Yet it’s the long-term… Read More

I’ve always been a sucker for the home improvement shows on HGTV. That’s why I planned to sit in front of the TV for just a few minutes while folding laundry over the weekend, but it wasn’t until an hour later that I got moving again. One… Read More

Thanks to a confluence of events, prices for corn, soybeans and wheat have been surging recently. And that has set agricultural equipment stocks afire. Shares of irrigation equipment maker Lindsay Manufacturing (NYSE: LNN) have surged more than +10% since last Thursday, while Deere (NYSE: DE) has made a similar move since last Monday. The same can be said for many other sector names, a number of which now sport price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios that are starting to get frothy. It may be too late to make… Read More

Thanks to a confluence of events, prices for corn, soybeans and wheat have been surging recently. And that has set agricultural equipment stocks afire. Shares of irrigation equipment maker Lindsay Manufacturing (NYSE: LNN) have surged more than +10% since last Thursday, while Deere (NYSE: DE) has made a similar move since last Monday. The same can be said for many other sector names, a number of which now sport price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios that are starting to get frothy. It may be too late to make a quick hit on this farm belt trade, but another sector has suddenly become very attractive simply because these commodities are seeing a surge in prices. I’m talking about the major producers of chicken, beef and pork. Their costs just went up, and their shares just went down. Yet viewed in the context of traditional long-term earnings power, these stocks are suddenly quite cheap. To fatten up livestock, farmers buy up massive amounts of corn and soybeans, which often account for a big chunk of operating expenses. But these “protein” producers… Read More

I feel the same way about gold right now as I did about tech stocks in the late 1990s — that it’s far too late to get in. Just the fact that no one can agree if there’s a gold bubble is enough to turn me off to the yellow… Read More

It’s not easy following in Jack Welch’s footsteps, who practically wrote the book on how to grow a business. Ever since taking the reins in early 2001, Jeff Immelt has consistently paled by comparison, having little to show for his first decade at the helm of General Electric (NYSE: GE). On a compounded basis, sales have grown less than +3% annually during his tenure. But all that is about to change. GE is almost done repairing the damage that was wrought by the global economic carnage of 2008, and the company is again gearing… Read More

It’s not easy following in Jack Welch’s footsteps, who practically wrote the book on how to grow a business. Ever since taking the reins in early 2001, Jeff Immelt has consistently paled by comparison, having little to show for his first decade at the helm of General Electric (NYSE: GE). On a compounded basis, sales have grown less than +3% annually during his tenure. But all that is about to change. GE is almost done repairing the damage that was wrought by the global economic carnage of 2008, and the company is again gearing up to play offense. You won’t notice it in the near-term, as GE’s revenue is expected to shrink a bit more in 2010 and 2011. But the stage is now being set for a robust return to growth in 2012 and beyond. Immelt is counting on three factors to propel growth. First, he’s decided to step up R&D funding from 3% to 5%. That means GE will be spending more than $30 billion every year to ensure that each of GE’s operating divisions have industry-best products. Second, he’s breaking out GE’s checkbook. Already in October, GE has… Read More

After an extended period in the wilderness courtesy of one of the most severe economic downturns in decades, retail stocks are slowly making a comeback. Just a couple of years ago, consumers shunned clothing and many other goods for more basic necessities. Consumers traded down where they could and even… Read More

Several months ago, I was lucky enough to sell my home relatively quickly (at full asking price, no less). Unfortunately, when the time came to hand the keys to the new owner, we still hadn’t found a replacement. Luckily, I knew a local commercial property manager who… Read More

My trading idea for this week is a company that is experiencing rising sales and profits, despite the weak overall economy in the United States. The company is experiencing a steady flow of orders, cutting costs, and has been able to pay a… Read More