Analyst Articles

I’d be surprised if you’ve heard of Larry Meyer, but in the past few days, he’s created quite a buzz. Larry Meyer is a former Federal Reserve Governor. He holds a B.A. from Yale; a Ph.D. from MIT. His pedigree is top-notch. So are his connections. Meyer is still buddies with the folks on the Federal Open Market Committee, the policy-making body of the U.S. Federal Reserve. And his friends tell him what goes on at their meetings weeks before the general public gets to read about it. You would… Read More

I’d be surprised if you’ve heard of Larry Meyer, but in the past few days, he’s created quite a buzz. Larry Meyer is a former Federal Reserve Governor. He holds a B.A. from Yale; a Ph.D. from MIT. His pedigree is top-notch. So are his connections. Meyer is still buddies with the folks on the Federal Open Market Committee, the policy-making body of the U.S. Federal Reserve. And his friends tell him what goes on at their meetings weeks before the general public gets to read about it. You would think sharing that information with anyone outside the current Fed members would be illegal. You would also think the fact that Meyer charges well-heeled clients $75,000 each for access to what he has heard — well ahead of the investing public — would be unlawful. Amazingly, neither action is illegal, according to a Reuters investigation. One of the Federal Reserve’s main tools is setting target interest rates, and profits can be made or lost based on what the Fed says at its meetings. It makes me mad… Read More

As we’ve been discussing throughout the past six months, a range-bound market means you’re likely better off moving in and out of certain stocks and sectors as they prove timely. Buy-and-hold appears dead for now, although few have the ability to profit from very short-term trades either. Costco (Nasdaq: COST) highlights the value of a “mid-term trade.” In just six weeks, investors have made about +25% from this investment. Yet Wednesday’s quarterly report from this retailer tells us it’s time to “sell on the news.” Whenever you see… Read More

As we’ve been discussing throughout the past six months, a range-bound market means you’re likely better off moving in and out of certain stocks and sectors as they prove timely. Buy-and-hold appears dead for now, although few have the ability to profit from very short-term trades either. Costco (Nasdaq: COST) highlights the value of a “mid-term trade.” In just six weeks, investors have made about +25% from this investment. Yet Wednesday’s quarterly report from this retailer tells us it’s time to “sell on the news.” Whenever you see a stock make a solid move as Costco has, it leads you to wonder if business is trending well ahead of expectations. That’s why it makes sense to hang on and see how quarterly results fare. I’ve noticed solid upward moves in four other retail pays I track; Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), Leapfrog Enterprises (NYSE: LF), Office Depot (NYSE: ODP) and Casual Male (Nasdaq: CMRG). Is business improving for these firms, or is the recent spike in Costco and these other companies’ shares simply due to a re-rotation back into retail?… Read More

The late-1970s was witness to one of the most remarkable gold rallies in history. From a low of $100 per troy ounce in 1976, prices rose to a then-record $873 by 1980. The culprit? Double-digit rates of inflation. Read More

As my colleague Mike Turner has noted, September was one for the record books. [Read Mike’s article here] And as Mike notes, it never hurts to play a little defense after such a good run. But in these markets, you’ll need to stay nimble. Coming earnings reports may just be good enough to keep the markets moving north, forestalling the moment when profit-taking dominates the action. With that in mind, let’s look at three companies that will report quarterly results in the next week or so. What they have to say about business… Read More

As my colleague Mike Turner has noted, September was one for the record books. [Read Mike’s article here] And as Mike notes, it never hurts to play a little defense after such a good run. But in these markets, you’ll need to stay nimble. Coming earnings reports may just be good enough to keep the markets moving north, forestalling the moment when profit-taking dominates the action. With that in mind, let’s look at three companies that will report quarterly results in the next week or so. What they have to say about business conditions may well set the trading tone for the rest of October and beyond. Aloca (NYSE: AA) On the first Monday in October, the Supreme Court kicks off a new term. And a few days after that, Alcoa always kicks off earnings season. For the past few years, Alcoa has set a somber tone as global demand for aluminum has been in a slump ever since Europe and the United States headed into the downturn. Yet I recently opined that a turn may be coming for Alcoa. [Read: “The Best… Read More

After September's rally, I'm more determined than ever to wait out lower prices and higher yields. In September, the S&P 500 rose an amazing +8.8%. While I'm not one to look a gift horse in the mouth, I think September's rise could increase the chance of a year-end market dip. Read More

While companies like Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) and IBM (NYSE: IBM) have revved up their acquisitions latesly, Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL) has been quiet. But this won’t last for long. The company has integrated its $7.5 billion deal for Sun Microsystems and also snagged the former CEO of HP,… Read More