While the United States, China and Japan duke it out for the top three economic slots in the global economy, Germany has settled in as number four. And from where investment pros sit in Bonn, that’s a pretty nice place to be. While China wrestles with possible bubbles, Japan tackles deflation and the United States frets about its government spending, Germany has spent much of the last few years away from the headlines. But behind the scenes, the country is undergoing a powerful export-led transformation that should catch… Read More

While the United States, China and Japan duke it out for the top three economic slots in the global economy, Germany has settled in as number four. And from where investment pros sit in Bonn, that’s a pretty nice place to be. While China wrestles with possible bubbles, Japan tackles deflation and the United States frets about its government spending, Germany has spent much of the last few years away from the headlines. But behind the scenes, the country is undergoing a powerful export-led transformation that should catch the attention of investors here in the United States as well. According to just-released data from Germany’s Federal Statistics Bureau, German exports are currently rising at a +25% to +30% clip compared to a year ago. That’s a remarkable feat when considering that most of its major trading partners appear too sickly to absorb all that trade. The export surge is due to a bit of methodical planning and a bit of serendipity. To be sure, German policy planners have always made sure that business conditions remain favorable by providing a very strong economic and trade infrastructure. Read More

Sometimes an investment looks like a no-brainer — until you dig a little deeper. On the face of it, Assured Guaranty (NYSE: AGO) looks like one heckuva stock. The company offers insurance policies for bond buyers, focusing on the state and local municipal bond business. It’s a good business in normal times and a great business right now, thanks to especially high premiums to insure these increasingly risky bonds. Assured’s two main rivals, MBIA (NYSE: MBI) and Ambac Financial (NYSE: ABK) are… Read More

Sometimes an investment looks like a no-brainer — until you dig a little deeper. On the face of it, Assured Guaranty (NYSE: AGO) looks like one heckuva stock. The company offers insurance policies for bond buyers, focusing on the state and local municipal bond business. It’s a good business in normal times and a great business right now, thanks to especially high premiums to insure these increasingly risky bonds. Assured’s two main rivals, MBIA (NYSE: MBI) and Ambac Financial (NYSE: ABK) are on the ropes, enabling the company to steal market share. Assured reported second-quarter profits last week of $0.91 a share, roughly +30% ahead of consensus forecasts and a company record since being spun-off from insurance giant ACE (NYSE: ACE) in 2004. And even after a nice double-digit gain on Friday, shares trade for just 80% of book value or about six times likely 2010 profits and 4.5 times expected 2011 profits. The “potential” in this case depends on… Read More

The oil spill disaster in the Gulf of Mexico will alter the landscape for offshore drilling for decades to come. Uncertainty over new regulations, lawsuits and the near-term hit to business in the region have sent the share prices of many major players in the industry to multi-year lows. But at current valuations, shares of these major players are pricing in extremely negative outcomes and don’t take into consideration that Gulf drilling is a small and declining percentage of global activity. As a result, I’ve found one major industry player that… Read More

The oil spill disaster in the Gulf of Mexico will alter the landscape for offshore drilling for decades to come. Uncertainty over new regulations, lawsuits and the near-term hit to business in the region have sent the share prices of many major players in the industry to multi-year lows. But at current valuations, shares of these major players are pricing in extremely negative outcomes and don’t take into consideration that Gulf drilling is a small and declining percentage of global activity. As a result, I’ve found one major industry player that qualifies as “The Bargain Stock of the Year.” After several months of high-level drama and extreme uncertainty, the oil spill in the Gulf appears to finally be under control. BP plc (NYSE: BP) is in the midst of completing its “static kill” cap that should stem the leak from the Macondo well permanently. In addition to the devastation the disaster has brought to the Gulf region, share prices of BP and its partners in the well, which include Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) and Mitsui, which owned about 25% and 10% of the well, respectively,… Read More

Walking by my firm’s trading desk in 2008, I overheard some chuckling. Turns out, a pair of traders were having a laugh fulfilling a client’s seemingly foolish “buy” order for shares of Crocs (Nasdaq: CROX). They wondered if the client had… Read More

In my Daily Paycheck newsletter, I buy income-generating securities for the long haul — reinvesting dividends for compound growth and income. But when I see an investment with ridiculous fundamentals, coupled with a repeating trend, it gets my trader’s heart beating. And that’s what I see when… Read More

Warren Buffett and his geeky, bridge-playing sidekick Bill Gates have talked 40 billionaires, including some of the business world’s marquee names, into giving half their fortunes to charity.   It’s an interesting scenario: If the avuncular Buffett showed up at your house and asked you to donate half… Read More

It’s like the senior prom for the aviation business: The Farnborough Air Show in the United Kingdom is a chance for companies to showcase their wares and tout their latest sales. It’s one way for industry players and investors to gauge who’s up, who’s down — and who’s out. Read More

There are so many crosscurrents in the U.S. economy right now that the stock market has no idea where it wants to go. Every trading day, we get a new set of items to digest that sets a short-term trend for the market. As… Read More

The unemployment rate in the United States has only recently experienced some moderately good news, dipping back into the single digits to 9.5% — a slight downtick from 9.7% in May. A 9.5% unemployment rate is still… Read More

Over the course of June, the market swooned on fears that the economy was on a downward path. And sure enough, the economic data have indeed been sobering. Just this morning, we learned that the economy created a paltry 71,000 private sector jobs, and the unemployment rate seems to be stuck in the 9.5% area. When you consider that the U.S. population grows by about two million per year, it’s clear that we’d need to see roughly 200,000 jobs created every month to help bring down unemployment. Read More

Over the course of June, the market swooned on fears that the economy was on a downward path. And sure enough, the economic data have indeed been sobering. Just this morning, we learned that the economy created a paltry 71,000 private sector jobs, and the unemployment rate seems to be stuck in the 9.5% area. When you consider that the U.S. population grows by about two million per year, it’s clear that we’d need to see roughly 200,000 jobs created every month to help bring down unemployment. And that’s unlikely to happen anytime soon. Yet investor sentiment toward this bleak set of news seems to have made an about face. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were each off around -0.5% on the weak employment news, indicating that fewer investors are fleeing the market whenever a bleak economic report hits the tape. Tepid economic data in the near-term is now to be expected, and as long as the economy doesn’t slide back into recession, investors may actually start to see the glass as half-full rather than empty. It’s important to remember that… Read More