Are you worried about a recession? I’m guessing that you are – but probably not so much as to affect your spending (yet, anyway). On average, the American consumer is feeling just fine. Actually, more than “just fine,” as we learned after the Commerce Department issued its monthly retail sales update. Sales at the U.S. shops, restaurants and online retailers rose 0.7% in July from the previous month — the highest monthly increase since March — and were higher than a year earlier by 3.4%. While spending in some categories, including furniture retailers and automotive purchases, was weak, spending in… Read More

Are you worried about a recession? I’m guessing that you are – but probably not so much as to affect your spending (yet, anyway). On average, the American consumer is feeling just fine. Actually, more than “just fine,” as we learned after the Commerce Department issued its monthly retail sales update. Sales at the U.S. shops, restaurants and online retailers rose 0.7% in July from the previous month — the highest monthly increase since March — and were higher than a year earlier by 3.4%. While spending in some categories, including furniture retailers and automotive purchases, was weak, spending in others surged. Consumers spent more than $137.7 billion online — a record amount. And our appetite for dining out and eating takeout drove U.S. restaurant spending higher by 1.3%, to $61.6 billion, in July. Taken alone, this number might not look all that impressive. But the increase means that restaurants as a group have been doing better than the average retailer. Moreover, this also means that the annualized rate of growth in the money spent at restaurants over the past three months stands at a massive 25.3% — the fastest pace on record (with numbers going back to 1992). The… Read More

Nobody said this would be easy… Today’s market environment brings a lot of uncertainty. The volatility we’ve seen recently brought on by the continuous trade war with China to a possible looming recession as indicated by the yield curve has investors on edge. Even the highly anticipated interest rate cut July 31 by the Federal Reserve was met with skepticism as the market sold off on the news. To top it off, the market — and many stocks — are sporting lofty valuations, which makes it difficult to find that “great company trading at a discount” we’re all looking for,… Read More

Nobody said this would be easy… Today’s market environment brings a lot of uncertainty. The volatility we’ve seen recently brought on by the continuous trade war with China to a possible looming recession as indicated by the yield curve has investors on edge. Even the highly anticipated interest rate cut July 31 by the Federal Reserve was met with skepticism as the market sold off on the news. To top it off, the market — and many stocks — are sporting lofty valuations, which makes it difficult to find that “great company trading at a discount” we’re all looking for, much less even a fair price. —Recommended Link— 3 Minutes to Collect 12 Times More Money Than Social Security Just make this simple little 3-minute call and you can get set up to start collecting your checks. All told, your checks can add up to $225,326 over the next 25 years. Imagine that! And these checks are supported by $1.75 billion in new money every year. But you must act right now… because the next wave of checks will be sent out in just a few days. ​​Click here for the… Read More

The oft-quoted law of unintended consequences is an intriguing concept. Let’s say you join a gym to lose weight — and you meet the love of your life there. That’s an unintended consequence. #-ad_banner-#It works the other way, too. Let’s say you join a gym to lose weight — and you slip in the shower and break a leg. Both outcomes were unintended consequences. In pursuing your goal to get in shape, you didn’t necessarily go to the gym to meet a potential spouse, and you certainly didn’t join to end up in a cast. Most of the time, though,… Read More

The oft-quoted law of unintended consequences is an intriguing concept. Let’s say you join a gym to lose weight — and you meet the love of your life there. That’s an unintended consequence. #-ad_banner-#It works the other way, too. Let’s say you join a gym to lose weight — and you slip in the shower and break a leg. Both outcomes were unintended consequences. In pursuing your goal to get in shape, you didn’t necessarily go to the gym to meet a potential spouse, and you certainly didn’t join to end up in a cast. Most of the time, though, we refer to the law of unintended consequences in terms of macro-economic policies and events. Because of the complexities of any large social system, a policy — be it of a monetary nature or a fiscal one — can sometimes lead to an unintended result. In a 1936 article, sociologist Robert K. Merton identified five reasons a well-intended policy could go wrong — with ignorance and error being the most common ones. In line with his original approach, the law of unintended consequences has come to symbolize almost anything that goes wrong with any policy. There are too many examples… Read More

Suppose you were a job hunter presented with two options: a position offering a flat $50,000 per year with no pay hikes or one starting at $40,000 with a guaranteed 10% raise each year. If you were only a year away from retirement, the first option would make more sense. But for those with a bit longer to go, option number two would be the better deal. Not only will your paycheck grow each year, but it will do so by an increasing amount — $4,000 after the first 12 months, $4,400 after the next 12, and so on. After… Read More

Suppose you were a job hunter presented with two options: a position offering a flat $50,000 per year with no pay hikes or one starting at $40,000 with a guaranteed 10% raise each year. If you were only a year away from retirement, the first option would make more sense. But for those with a bit longer to go, option number two would be the better deal. Not only will your paycheck grow each year, but it will do so by an increasing amount — $4,000 after the first 12 months, $4,400 after the next 12, and so on. After just five years, you would be pulling down about $64,000 per year. And if the base compensation alone didn’t sway you, what if I also mentioned that the second job offer was from a prosperous growing company that also offered nice incentives such as generous 401(K) matching? I’m guessing that would only reinforce your decision. If this simple analogy makes sense, congratulations — you’re already a step ahead of the yield-hungry crowd and that much closer to financial independence. —Recommended Link— Retire up to 12 YEARS EARLY I started a unique retirement program three years ago, and we’re getting… Read More

Last week, stocks sold off and the week ended with a popular indicator showing a “sell” signal.  To understand, let’s look at a simple chart.  —Recommended Link— Life-and-death investing. At the office, we call them “essential-service” stocks. Because people don’t just want what they sell, they need it. Nobody is going to go without air conditioning in Arizona. It can be a matter of life and death. And try spending a winter in North Dakota with no heat. Forget it. So the companies that make these places livable have and extreme advantage over other businesses. Read More

Last week, stocks sold off and the week ended with a popular indicator showing a “sell” signal.  To understand, let’s look at a simple chart.  —Recommended Link— Life-and-death investing. At the office, we call them “essential-service” stocks. Because people don’t just want what they sell, they need it. Nobody is going to go without air conditioning in Arizona. It can be a matter of life and death. And try spending a winter in North Dakota with no heat. Forget it. So the companies that make these places livable have and extreme advantage over other businesses. ​​ Which is great news for us, because we’ve got a bunch of these stocks that are up 561% each. This is the kind of chart many market analysts ignore because it just seems too simple. The indicator at the bottom of the chart won’t be enough to beat the market, but it does help reduce risk.  The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the popular MACD indicator. And as I just mentioned, it’s on a “sell” signal right now.  In the past 10 years, owning the S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) only when… Read More

Market volatility is back. And it didn’t take long. From the low of the year set on July 24, the CBOE Volatility Index — also known as the Fear Index or simply the VIX — doubled less than two weeks later, rallying on August 5 to levels not seen since early January. Of course, by the end of the week, stocks recovered about half of their Monday losses (and ended the week 2.8% down). The volatility, accordingly, let up a little. Still, at about 66.5 on Friday, the VIX stood about 40% higher than the July lows, and it has… Read More

Market volatility is back. And it didn’t take long. From the low of the year set on July 24, the CBOE Volatility Index — also known as the Fear Index or simply the VIX — doubled less than two weeks later, rallying on August 5 to levels not seen since early January. Of course, by the end of the week, stocks recovered about half of their Monday losses (and ended the week 2.8% down). The volatility, accordingly, let up a little. Still, at about 66.5 on Friday, the VIX stood about 40% higher than the July lows, and it has continued to move higher again early this week. Here’s another way of looking at volatility: over the past two weeks, major indices such as the S&P 500 were posting relatively large moves — up or down 1% or more — every day. This is the longest such streak in years and, by some calculations, since the Great Recession. This looks like a great time to look for some defense. And coincidentally, I think investors may find it in the defense sector. While stocks officially classified as Aerospace and Defense might not be immune from the market’s volatility, these companies are… Read More

To call a stock like Colony Capital (Nasdaq: CLNY) a disappointment would be an understatement. Since joining with Northstar Realty in early 2017 (a merger that went south almost immediately), the company has lost approximately two-thirds of its market cap.  So why does it worth a look for investors? Because investing is always about tomorrow, not yesterday. A well-respected investment research firm just evaluated each of Colony’s divisions individually, and after a sum-of-the-parts valuation concluded that CLNY is worth $11 per share. That would imply a potential upside of 100% from current levels. And for the first time in a… Read More

To call a stock like Colony Capital (Nasdaq: CLNY) a disappointment would be an understatement. Since joining with Northstar Realty in early 2017 (a merger that went south almost immediately), the company has lost approximately two-thirds of its market cap.  So why does it worth a look for investors? Because investing is always about tomorrow, not yesterday. A well-respected investment research firm just evaluated each of Colony’s divisions individually, and after a sum-of-the-parts valuation concluded that CLNY is worth $11 per share. That would imply a potential upside of 100% from current levels. And for the first time in a while, the market is sensing a viable pathway to get there. Just What Exactly Is This Company?  Part of the problem is Colony’s convoluted portfolio, which has kept many analysts (and retail investors) at arm’s length. Like most real estate investment trusts (REITs), it owns a collection of rent-earning properties such as hotels and warehouses. But Colony is also part asset manager and part business development company (BDC). Among other ventures, it originates real estate loans and manages both open and closed private equity funds. Colony has $14.6 billion in balance sheet assets and manages another $28.8 billion on… Read More

“Cash is king.” This common expression is often used when analyzing business or investment decisions. When buying real estate in a hot market, cash is king. If you come to the table with cash over more traditional financing methods, your offer will likely move to the top of the pecking order. The same principle can be applied to stock-picking. A company that produces a ton of cash or carries a good amount of cash in relation to debt is often seen as a “safer” investment compared with a company that’s debt-ridden. And when investors believe the market is getting too… Read More

“Cash is king.” This common expression is often used when analyzing business or investment decisions. When buying real estate in a hot market, cash is king. If you come to the table with cash over more traditional financing methods, your offer will likely move to the top of the pecking order. The same principle can be applied to stock-picking. A company that produces a ton of cash or carries a good amount of cash in relation to debt is often seen as a “safer” investment compared with a company that’s debt-ridden. And when investors believe the market is getting too hot or expensive, they will often stockpile cash to have on hand when the next pullback hits. This way, they can pick up shares of their favorite company at a better price. —Recommended Link— I’ve Never Been More Excited About An Opportunity Pot stocks are dominating the headlines. But I’m not biting. Because I’ve found a safer, smarter way to make money from the legal marijuana market. It’s a unique profit-sharing plan that’s allowing everyday Americans to earn up to $55,563 a year. And the payouts are 100% backed by a U.S. Federal Law. The… Read More