If you listen to the talking heads on CNBC, gold’s move from $1,230/oz. to $1,280/oz. since last December occurred despite the threat of at least one, and possibly two, interest rate hikes in 2017. This reasoning has resulted in the idea that gold prices will have to decline from current levels unless the Fed fails to raise interest rates. And frankly, unless the United States enters a recession, the likelihood of at least one more rate increase in 2017 is inevitable. #-ad_banner-#But are the talking heads correct? I don’t think so. Here’s why… Gold prices correlate more to ‘real’ interest… Read More

If you listen to the talking heads on CNBC, gold’s move from $1,230/oz. to $1,280/oz. since last December occurred despite the threat of at least one, and possibly two, interest rate hikes in 2017. This reasoning has resulted in the idea that gold prices will have to decline from current levels unless the Fed fails to raise interest rates. And frankly, unless the United States enters a recession, the likelihood of at least one more rate increase in 2017 is inevitable. #-ad_banner-#But are the talking heads correct? I don’t think so. Here’s why… Gold prices correlate more to ‘real’ interest rates than to ‘nominal’ rates. Real interest rates are nominal rates less the rate of inflation. In simple terms, a nominal interest rate of 3% yields a real rate of 1% if the inflation rate is 2%. Now, nominal interest rates are likely to rise in 2017. But real rates are not, since expectations are for higher inflation, not less. What this means is that even if the Fed attempts to ‘normalize’ them, real interest rates have likely already hit their highs — meaning that gold prices are not likely to go significantly lower from here.   In fact, given… Read More

The car business is in trouble. But it could actually help one of my holdings in Top Stock Advisor. Let me explain… On April 3, Autodata released March sales numbers and they revealed that vehicle sales fell to the lowest level in more than two years. Auto sales have risen every year since the financial crisis and hit a record 17.6 million vehicles last year. But since the turn of the New Year sales have begun to fade. And the situation is likely only to get worse. #-ad_banner-#You see, used-car prices are beginning to fall. According to the National Automobile… Read More

The car business is in trouble. But it could actually help one of my holdings in Top Stock Advisor. Let me explain… On April 3, Autodata released March sales numbers and they revealed that vehicle sales fell to the lowest level in more than two years. Auto sales have risen every year since the financial crisis and hit a record 17.6 million vehicles last year. But since the turn of the New Year sales have begun to fade. And the situation is likely only to get worse. #-ad_banner-#You see, used-car prices are beginning to fall. According to the National Automobile Dealers Association, used car prices fell roughly 4% in February and are likely to continue heading that direction as a plethora of previously leased vehicles hit the market. The weakness in used-car prices puts pressure on new car sales. Think about it this way. If the price of a used car isn’t that much different from a brand spanking new one… why not get a new vehicle? But as used car prices fall, then the disparity in price makes it easier for consumers to choose used. But the real problem looming in the auto industry — one hardly anyone is… Read More

Flying an airplane is one of my passions. The view from 4,500 feet on a clear day is just unbelievably refreshing. Despite my passion for flying, there are inherent risks in taking an aircraft 10,000 feet above the earth. Everything from weather to mechanical issues can provide a brutal end to an otherwise beautiful day. #-ad_banner-#So safety is paramount when planning a trip. Whether the trip is to practice landings or a cross-country trip, emergency planning is the rule. Now, think about what equipment you’d want when flying — beyond the most basic stuff like fuel and a properly functioning… Read More

Flying an airplane is one of my passions. The view from 4,500 feet on a clear day is just unbelievably refreshing. Despite my passion for flying, there are inherent risks in taking an aircraft 10,000 feet above the earth. Everything from weather to mechanical issues can provide a brutal end to an otherwise beautiful day. #-ad_banner-#So safety is paramount when planning a trip. Whether the trip is to practice landings or a cross-country trip, emergency planning is the rule. Now, think about what equipment you’d want when flying — beyond the most basic stuff like fuel and a properly functioning aircraft. The most obvious piece of equipment is a GPS. A good GPS provides the pilot with information about the position of the aircraft in relation to the earth, but most models today provide weather data as well as charts identifying backup airports in the event of an emergency. Another piece of equipment essential to the safe operation of an aircraft is a radio. The ability to communicate with air traffic control — especially when the weather unexpectedly turns — is critical. And that alone has saved thousands of lives. So what does flying have to do with investing? It… Read More

My years in the military have allowed me to see the world in a totally different way. While deployed overseas I tracked IED locations, went on convoy missions and gathered intelligence from local villages. I learned the importance of analyzing data to forecast what was likely to happen, and I used this information to determine the level of risk our soldiers were dealing with. #-ad_banner-#My service opened my eyes to the bigger picture — not just in the military, but in everyday life. My experience assessing risk in the military taught me to think outside the box and take different… Read More

My years in the military have allowed me to see the world in a totally different way. While deployed overseas I tracked IED locations, went on convoy missions and gathered intelligence from local villages. I learned the importance of analyzing data to forecast what was likely to happen, and I used this information to determine the level of risk our soldiers were dealing with. #-ad_banner-#My service opened my eyes to the bigger picture — not just in the military, but in everyday life. My experience assessing risk in the military taught me to think outside the box and take different approaches to problems or situations, including the financial markets. Today, there are myriad investing techniques and strategies. And when I was first introduced to them, like most I found myself overwhelmed. That’s where my training came in handy because I was able to look at the market from a different angle. As I put my years of service analyzing data and forecasting and assessing risk to work, I was instantly drawn to one particular strategy… selling put options. Options can be powerful income-generating tools — safe enough even for retirees — when used correctly. Here’s an easy way to understand… Read More

Is it time to invest in energy stocks? Oil prices have been volatile, and there is tremendous excitement in the energy space. The question has always been will oil continue to climb higher, or will the price momentum fade? Maybe the commodity will crash, or maybe it will just keep moving up. No one knows what will happen next, and with many energy stocks are dependent on oil prices, investors are unsure of where they can safely buy in the space. Believe it or not, not all oil company stocks are dependent on the price of crude. I have identified… Read More

Is it time to invest in energy stocks? Oil prices have been volatile, and there is tremendous excitement in the energy space. The question has always been will oil continue to climb higher, or will the price momentum fade? Maybe the commodity will crash, or maybe it will just keep moving up. No one knows what will happen next, and with many energy stocks are dependent on oil prices, investors are unsure of where they can safely buy in the space. Believe it or not, not all oil company stocks are dependent on the price of crude. I have identified five stocks that should continue to climb higher regardless of what happens to oil prices. A History Of Volatility Oil is among the most volatile commodities on earth. Just three years ago, it was trading for over $100 per barrel. Next time it hit the headlines, it had plunged to around $30 per barrel in early 2016. Prices have since climbed back up to around $53.00 per barrel. The volatility is custom made for active futures traders. This hyperactive subset of the investor population can change from long to short instantaneously and profit no matter which way the commodity… Read More

I recently strolled into my neighborhood McDonald’s to satisfy my dreadful McNugget addiction. The assistant manager immediately recognized me, not for my nugget-purchasing frequency, but my appearances on Fox Business Network. After the 25-year-old interrogated me for 10 minutes about investing in today’s target, I realized it was time to short it. Our conversation was the coup de grace in a series of indicators all pointing to lower prices for this ETF. And don’t worry, I told her it wouldn’t be a good idea to buy it in the short term. #-ad_banner-#For as much flack as McDonald’s gets, the restaurant… Read More

I recently strolled into my neighborhood McDonald’s to satisfy my dreadful McNugget addiction. The assistant manager immediately recognized me, not for my nugget-purchasing frequency, but my appearances on Fox Business Network. After the 25-year-old interrogated me for 10 minutes about investing in today’s target, I realized it was time to short it. Our conversation was the coup de grace in a series of indicators all pointing to lower prices for this ETF. And don’t worry, I told her it wouldn’t be a good idea to buy it in the short term. #-ad_banner-#For as much flack as McDonald’s gets, the restaurant chain has provided many with some very powerful ideas in the world of finance. Back in 1986, The Economist conceived the “Big Mac index” as a means of measuring global currencies against one another for a quick inflation check. In January 2017, the average Big Mac in America cost $5.06, while that same concoction of meat and cheese in China sold for just $2.83 (when you converted yuan to U.S. dollars). In simple terms, the Big Mac index indicated the yuan was undervalued against the USD by 44%. Useful information if you’re contemplating a currency trade… but what about stock… Read More

Tensions between the United States and North Korea have flared in recent weeks after Pyongyang conducted missile tests. President Trump, meanwhile, recently ordered strikes in Syria and Afghanistan and has stated that the United States will not tolerate much more belligerence from North Korea. While Kim Jong-un has played this dangerous game of brinkmanship in the past, recent events risk boiling over into a full-blown conflict. Neither side looks likely to back down. North Korea put its army on ‘maximum alert’ and the United States is moving warships within striking distance. Even a brief conflict is sure to scare the… Read More

Tensions between the United States and North Korea have flared in recent weeks after Pyongyang conducted missile tests. President Trump, meanwhile, recently ordered strikes in Syria and Afghanistan and has stated that the United States will not tolerate much more belligerence from North Korea. While Kim Jong-un has played this dangerous game of brinkmanship in the past, recent events risk boiling over into a full-blown conflict. Neither side looks likely to back down. North Korea put its army on ‘maximum alert’ and the United States is moving warships within striking distance. Even a brief conflict is sure to scare the markets into a correction, but one group of companies could see an even bigger risk from geo-political instability. Is The World Marching To War? A day before President Trump met with China’s President Xi Jinping, North Korea tested an intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of reaching the U.S. territory of Guam. These missile tests are nothing new for the belligerent Asian nation but recent tests have raised the stakes in its game of nuclear cat-and-mouse with the West. #-ad_banner-#Satellite images show what could be preparations for a sixth nuclear test at Mount Mantap, the mile-high peak where North Korea conducts… Read More