Knowing that you timed a trade perfectly is one of the best feelings an investor can experience. Even if you’ve had scores of winning trades over the course of your trading career, the rush of making a great call never goes away. Today, I want to talk about a recent victory of mine — not to brag, but because there is something more I want to share with you. If you’re ready to take your trading to the next level, this could be a game changer. #-ad_banner-#Earlier this month, I warned traders to stay away from former market darling Chipotle Mexican Grill… Read More

 Knowing that you timed a trade perfectly is one of the best feelings an investor can experience. Even if you’ve had scores of winning trades over the course of your trading career, the rush of making a great call never goes away. Today, I want to talk about a recent victory of mine — not to brag, but because there is something more I want to share with you. If you’re ready to take your trading to the next level, this could be a game changer. #-ad_banner-#Earlier this month, I warned traders to stay away from former market darling Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG). The company has been desperately spending to restore its reputation and sales after outbreaks of E. coli and other food-borne illnesses at several locations sickened hundreds of people across the country. But a look at the company’s fundamentals (and its empty restaurants) made it clear that a turnaround had so far eluded the company. Despite this, shares were trading at an astronomical 115 times estimated earnings, the highest in the stock’s history. And with the company scheduled to report Q3 earnings on Oct. 25, my models were showing a high likelihood of an earnings miss. Sure enough, when… Read More

I am a huge proponent of following Peter Lynch’s mantra of buying what you know in the stock market. Mr. Lynch intended for this saying to be the impetus that launched further research into the company, rather than as the only reason to make a buy or sell decision in the stock market. When used correctly, it can be a powerful way to create investment ideas to explore for your portfolio.   #-ad_banner-#Taking this saying to heart, I am always looking for the next big thing when it comes to food. As a foodie who loves the American classics such… Read More

I am a huge proponent of following Peter Lynch’s mantra of buying what you know in the stock market. Mr. Lynch intended for this saying to be the impetus that launched further research into the company, rather than as the only reason to make a buy or sell decision in the stock market. When used correctly, it can be a powerful way to create investment ideas to explore for your portfolio.   #-ad_banner-#Taking this saying to heart, I am always looking for the next big thing when it comes to food. As a foodie who loves the American classics such as hamburgers, I keep a close eye on the fast and gourmet burger joints that seem to be popping up everywhere. I was thrilled to see the success of Shake Shack (NYSE: SHAK). Starting out as a humble hot dog cart in Manhattan, the company launched its IPO in January 2015. Given the simple start, the IPO alone was a testament to American capital markets and our never-ending love of fast-food hamburgers. However, Shake Shack continued to surprise and confound critics, with shares more than doubling on their first day of trading. Even more, the stock continued to rocket higher… Read More

Looking at his brokerage statement, Ira’s heart sinks. He once thought his savings were sufficient to last the rest of his life. But his retirement account balances have fallen to levels that make him nervous. He’s now thinking he may need to find part-time work. Ira isn’t alone. Many retirees struggle to generate enough income to pay their bills.   #-ad_banner-#The fault for this lies squarely with the Federal Reserve. Their zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP) has driven investors to lower yielding and higher risk investments. You see, interest rates have declined for more than three decades. But in the last… Read More

Looking at his brokerage statement, Ira’s heart sinks. He once thought his savings were sufficient to last the rest of his life. But his retirement account balances have fallen to levels that make him nervous. He’s now thinking he may need to find part-time work. Ira isn’t alone. Many retirees struggle to generate enough income to pay their bills.   #-ad_banner-#The fault for this lies squarely with the Federal Reserve. Their zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP) has driven investors to lower yielding and higher risk investments. You see, interest rates have declined for more than three decades. But in the last decade, they have been hammered. The long-term average return on 10-Year Treasuries is 6%. That generates about $600 in annual interest income on a $10,000 investment. But with the 10-Year currently yielding just 1.7%, seniors with the same investment today earn a mere $170 a year.   That’s a 72% decline in income. And it’s only going to get worse. The Fed is roughly 350 basis points behind their own schedule for where rates should be. It will take years to normalize rates from current levels, especially as rates in many places are negative. These Policies Have Hurt Retirees… Read More

I’m the lucky dad of teenage boys. Financial markets remind me of teenage boys: brilliant, rewarding, inspiring at times and other times frustrating, erratic, and just plain stupid. I’ve found the key to dealing with both is consistency, clear objectives, and conviction. #-ad_banner-#And although many market observers may describe the language of the Federal Reserve as vague and obtuse, I’m starting to think that Dr. Yellen and Company share my “the market as teenage boy” philosophy. They want rates to return to some form of normalcy, but the economic conditions must warrant the action first. They waited and waited before… Read More

I’m the lucky dad of teenage boys. Financial markets remind me of teenage boys: brilliant, rewarding, inspiring at times and other times frustrating, erratic, and just plain stupid. I’ve found the key to dealing with both is consistency, clear objectives, and conviction. #-ad_banner-#And although many market observers may describe the language of the Federal Reserve as vague and obtuse, I’m starting to think that Dr. Yellen and Company share my “the market as teenage boy” philosophy. They want rates to return to some form of normalcy, but the economic conditions must warrant the action first. They waited and waited before finally taking action in December 2015, raising the base federal funds rate a quarter of a percent. This signaled a desire to return to more realistic interest rates while reiterating that it will be an exceedingly long process to get back to their target rates. And the market, like a teenager, pouted as the S&P 500 pulled back 11% from December 2015 to February 2016. Do we expect the market to go down when the fed raises the rate again? Maybe not as much, as perhaps it’s “learned” the consequences. Then again, I’m an optimist. No, any pullback will be… Read More

A few weeks ago, I wrote about one of the most exciting revolutions to happen to investing in years. The new opportunity has to do with an asset class that has delivered out-sized returns for wealthy, elite investors while remaining off-limits to everyone else.  In short, if you’ve ever wished you could have invested in companies like Facebook and Twitter BEFORE they went public, then you’ll want to pay attention to what I have to say… —Recommended Link— Your Personal Paycheck Plan  One simple strategy is helping folks enjoy retirement more. In fact, the $2,194 Annie from Nevada makes… Read More

A few weeks ago, I wrote about one of the most exciting revolutions to happen to investing in years. The new opportunity has to do with an asset class that has delivered out-sized returns for wealthy, elite investors while remaining off-limits to everyone else.  In short, if you’ve ever wished you could have invested in companies like Facebook and Twitter BEFORE they went public, then you’ll want to pay attention to what I have to say… —Recommended Link— Your Personal Paycheck Plan  One simple strategy is helping folks enjoy retirement more. In fact, the $2,194 Annie from Nevada makes with this method covers all her monthly expenses. The $1,100 that Gordon from California earns makes life easier each month. And Curtis of Washington State puts the $4,200 he collects monthly toward home improvements. Discover the strategy that can enrich your life,too… Until May of this year, to invest in companies before they undergo an initial public offering (IPO), you had to be an “accredited” investor — that means a net worth of at least $1 million (excluding the value of your house), or an individual income of at least $200,000 a year ($300,00 combined). Now, thanks to the passage… Read More

It’s nearly impossible to click through to Bloomberg or another financial news site without being inundated with analysis predicting the next rate hike by the Federal Reserve.  Everything seems to be tied back to the potential for higher rates, and current 30-day Federal Funds futures put the odds at 65.6% that the central bank will hike by at least 25 basis points at its December meeting. #-ad_banner-#Volatility has spiked several times this year on investor fears of higher borrowing costs. The VIX volatility index spiked 88% in June when economic reports suggested higher rates were coming. Volatility jumped again, rising… Read More

It’s nearly impossible to click through to Bloomberg or another financial news site without being inundated with analysis predicting the next rate hike by the Federal Reserve.  Everything seems to be tied back to the potential for higher rates, and current 30-day Federal Funds futures put the odds at 65.6% that the central bank will hike by at least 25 basis points at its December meeting. #-ad_banner-#Volatility has spiked several times this year on investor fears of higher borrowing costs. The VIX volatility index spiked 88% in June when economic reports suggested higher rates were coming. Volatility jumped again, rising 52% in the third week of September, and then did so a third time this month.  All three surges in volatility have been met with a sell-off in stocks. But investors may be missing one very important point about rate hikes. It’s something only the economists know and something that could change the way you invest over the next several years. Understanding The Whole Rate Cycle, Not Just The Hike The watch for higher rates has turned into a Wall Street nail-biter as the market rises and falls with each piece of economic data or speech by a member… Read More

Recently I had the honor of accompanying a group of friends to Las Vegas for a bachelor party. The betrothed couple in question for this event has been very dear to me for years — and honestly, aside from a few of the typical travel hiccups, the trip was a blast.  #-ad_banner-#I’ve been to Sin City a number of times, and I know firsthand that the things you can do to have a good time are only limited by your imagination (and, yes, perhaps your inhibitions). But among these activities — whether you’re shooting dice, playing Texas Hold ‘Em, lounging… Read More

Recently I had the honor of accompanying a group of friends to Las Vegas for a bachelor party. The betrothed couple in question for this event has been very dear to me for years — and honestly, aside from a few of the typical travel hiccups, the trip was a blast.  #-ad_banner-#I’ve been to Sin City a number of times, and I know firsthand that the things you can do to have a good time are only limited by your imagination (and, yes, perhaps your inhibitions). But among these activities — whether you’re shooting dice, playing Texas Hold ‘Em, lounging at the pool, shopping, or having a nice meal at one of the many five-star restaurants in Vegas — there’s always alcohol within reach. It got me to thinking… I hope the teetotalers among the StreetAuthority crowd will forgive me for saying this, but a little booze in moderation can make certain activities a little more fun. Perhaps that’s why alcohol has historically been such a resilient investment. So today, I’d like to share a pick with you from my colleague Jimmy Butts, Chief Investment Strategist of Top Stock Advisor. And as you may have guessed, it has to do… Read More

The major U.S. stock indices staged a very modest recovery last week. The fact that it was led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which rose 0.9%, is encouraging. However, historically low volatility, overly bullish investor sentiment and late-October seasonality warn that the market may not be out of the woods yet. Except for consumer staples (-0.3%) and industrials (-0.4%), all sectors of the S&P 500 finished in positive territory last week, led by materials (+1.6%) and financials (+1.2%). #-ad_banner-# Bigger picture, Asbury Research’s sector ETF-based metric shows that the biggest positive… Read More

The major U.S. stock indices staged a very modest recovery last week. The fact that it was led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which rose 0.9%, is encouraging. However, historically low volatility, overly bullish investor sentiment and late-October seasonality warn that the market may not be out of the woods yet. Except for consumer staples (-0.3%) and industrials (-0.4%), all sectors of the S&P 500 finished in positive territory last week, led by materials (+1.6%) and financials (+1.2%). #-ad_banner-# Bigger picture, Asbury Research’s sector ETF-based metric shows that the biggest positive percentage change in investor asset flows in the past one-month and three-month periods went into the energy sector, which is seen by many as a global economic barometer.  Investors Still Too Complacent Although I would love to show Market Outlook readers a different set of market metrics each week, my primary objective is to cover what I believe to be the most influential indicators to stock market direction at any given time. Given that criterion, market volatility remains at the top of the list.  The Volatility S&P 500 (VIX) index has been rising from a complacent extreme of 12 and… Read More

I am about to make a bold call on the future price of gold. Clearly, no one knows the future, but I firmly think that the preponderance of the evidence points toward dramatically lower prices for the yellow metal over the next 24 months. In fact, I expect gold prices… Read More