Analyst Articles

All across Europe, power companies are being forced to mothball natural-gas power plants. In just the past few weeks, renewable-energy companies such as Germany’s E.ON and Norway’s Statkraft have done so as well, as a key dynamic taking place in the United States starts to have a global effect. That dynamic: abundant production of natural gas. As U.S. power producers have shifted their multi-fuel plants from coal-burning to gas-burning (known as coal-to-gas, or C2G), demand and pricing for coal have collapsed.#-ad_banner-# Coal is now so cheap that European electricity producers now realize it’s far cheaper to switch back to imported… Read More

All across Europe, power companies are being forced to mothball natural-gas power plants. In just the past few weeks, renewable-energy companies such as Germany’s E.ON and Norway’s Statkraft have done so as well, as a key dynamic taking place in the United States starts to have a global effect. That dynamic: abundant production of natural gas. As U.S. power producers have shifted their multi-fuel plants from coal-burning to gas-burning (known as coal-to-gas, or C2G), demand and pricing for coal have collapsed.#-ad_banner-# Coal is now so cheap that European electricity producers now realize it’s far cheaper to switch back to imported coal rather than continue burning pricier gas. Call it the gas-to-coal movement. In fact, the C2G trend, a key theme in the United States over the past few years, has run its course. And a switch back to coal has been the new response from some U.S. power producers as well. There is a multi-month lag time regarding power-plant usage, but UBS’s analysts noted in a May 1 report that “Coal once again appears to have continued to regain market share in… Read More

I’ve been investing for 20 years, and for the first half of my investing career, I repeatedly made the same mistake. I’d buy beaten-up stocks, they’d barely budge for an extended period, and I’d finally give up and sell my investment for a modest gain or loss. Invariably, when I looked back on that stock a few years later, it had greatly appreciated in value — long after… Read More

I’ve been investing for 20 years, and for the first half of my investing career, I repeatedly made the same mistake. I’d buy beaten-up stocks, they’d barely budge for an extended period, and I’d finally give up and sell my investment for a modest gain or loss. Invariably, when I looked back on that stock a few years later, it had greatly appreciated in value — long after I had given up on it.#-ad_banner-# Any time a stock falls sharply, it’s awfully tempting to jump in. We’re simply conditioned to pursue items when they are on sale, so a 50% or even 70% plunge can get our juices flowing. You’re probably right that deep value exists when a stock has sold off sharply. But that doesn’t mean you should jump right in. Turnarounds are one of the few types of stocks in which you can double or triple your… Read More

Remember the “super spike”? That phrase entered our vocabulary five years ago this month when crude oil prices suddenly surged to $120 a barrel. By July 2008, prices surged to $140 a barrel, which surely played a role in pushing the global economic into a deep crisis.#-ad_banner-# Consumers had to slash discretionary spending to have enough money to fill up their gas tanks, airline carriers were hit with a rising tide of losses, and many companies saw their profit margins squeezed as costs rose faster than… Read More

Remember the “super spike”? That phrase entered our vocabulary five years ago this month when crude oil prices suddenly surged to $120 a barrel. By July 2008, prices surged to $140 a barrel, which surely played a role in pushing the global economic into a deep crisis.#-ad_banner-# Consumers had to slash discretionary spending to have enough money to fill up their gas tanks, airline carriers were hit with a rising tide of losses, and many companies saw their profit margins squeezed as costs rose faster than revenues. Though crude oil prices tumbled to just $40 a barrel by year‘s end, the global economic damage was already done. Now, as the U.S. economy starts to percolate again, some have expressed concern that the world’s largest economy may again lead a surge in demand — and prices — for crude oil. Yet a pair of factors implies that it’s quite unlikely we’ll see another super spike and we may in fact be on the cusp… Read More

With the market hitting record highs, value investors are having a tough time searching for bargains. Don’t get me wrong, I’m as pleased as anyone to see green numbers flashing when I check my trading account.#-ad_banner-# But… Read More

Sometimes the best way to play a commodity is to find one getting beaten up by Wall Street. As any seasoned investor knows, Wall Street has a tendency to overreact, and that’s happening right now with one of the most important metals on Earth… At the moment, commodities … Read More

Sometimes the best way to play a commodity is to find one getting beaten up by Wall Street. As any seasoned investor knows, Wall Street has a tendency to overreact, and that’s happening right now with one of the most important metals on Earth… At the moment, commodities analysts flat-out hate iron ore. Forecasters at prominent brokerage houses like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have slashed their short and long-term price forecasts. And top Australianeconomists are projecting prices to slide from an average of $119 per ton this year to just $90 per ton by 2015. Nobody knows the iron ore … Read More