Not many asset classes finished 2018 on a high note. But the December pullback was particularly harsh for high-yield bonds. In fact, the group suffered its worst monthly performance in eight years.  Like most in this category, the SPDR High Yield Bond (NYSE: JNK) fund ended 2018 in negative territory with a loss of 3.3%. Despite being riskier than their investment-grade counterparts, annual declines are rare for high-yield bonds.  #-ad_banner-#In fact, it has only happened a handful of times over the past 20 years.  And they don’t stay down for long. According to State Street, high-yield bonds have rebounded 29%… Read More

Not many asset classes finished 2018 on a high note. But the December pullback was particularly harsh for high-yield bonds. In fact, the group suffered its worst monthly performance in eight years.  Like most in this category, the SPDR High Yield Bond (NYSE: JNK) fund ended 2018 in negative territory with a loss of 3.3%. Despite being riskier than their investment-grade counterparts, annual declines are rare for high-yield bonds.  #-ad_banner-#In fact, it has only happened a handful of times over the past 20 years.  And they don’t stay down for long. According to State Street, high-yield bonds have rebounded 29% on average in the calendar year following an annual decline. While I wouldn’t bank on that large of a gain, I do believe this same pattern will hold in 2019.  As you may know, this group isn’t particularly rate-sensitive. Like equities, it responds more to broad economic changes, which in turn influence the ability of corporate borrowers to repay their IOUs. Right now, most are meeting principal and interest payments in a timely manner.  According to Moody’s, default rates on speculative-grade U.S. debt are projected to fall from 3.0% currently (already well below historical norms) to just 2.0% by September. Read More

Have you heard? The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) just raised the price of a Forever stamp to $0.55 from $0.50. This is the sharpest percentage increase (10%) since 1991 — and the biggest hike on record in nominal terms. As a young financial advisor in the late 1990s, I would always stress the impact of inflation when meeting with prospective clients, modeling it into any retirement funding projections. And the best way to drive home the point was to show how stamp prices had increased steadily over the years. In fact, they are directly tethered to inflation rates. Back… Read More

Have you heard? The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) just raised the price of a Forever stamp to $0.55 from $0.50. This is the sharpest percentage increase (10%) since 1991 — and the biggest hike on record in nominal terms. As a young financial advisor in the late 1990s, I would always stress the impact of inflation when meeting with prospective clients, modeling it into any retirement funding projections. And the best way to drive home the point was to show how stamp prices had increased steadily over the years. In fact, they are directly tethered to inflation rates. Back then, stamps had doubled in price from $0.15 to $0.32 over the prior two decades. Twenty years later, and they’ve continued to march all the way to $0.55. How long do you think it will be before they hit $0.60, or $1.00?  An acquaintance of mine had the foresight back in 2007 to “invest” $1,000 in Forever Stamps, purchasing 2,439 at a fixed price of $0.41 each. It really wasn’t that different from speculating in commodities by using futures contracts. She didn’t do too bad. The value of those 2,439 stamps has now risen to $1,341, an increase of 34.1%. Read More

It may be frigid across much of the country, but corporate earnings growth remains quite steamy. As of February 1, 230 members of the S&P 500 (46%) had posted fourth-quarter results. That means we’re about halfway through the reporting season. And thus far, nearly three-out-of-four companies beat expectations. The torrid 20%-plus growth rate we’ve seen the past several quarters is finally beginning to moderate (that pace is unsustainable for long). Still, if you blend the actual results with the latest estimates from the other 270 companies that are due to report soon, S&P earnings are on track to increase 12.4%. Read More

It may be frigid across much of the country, but corporate earnings growth remains quite steamy. As of February 1, 230 members of the S&P 500 (46%) had posted fourth-quarter results. That means we’re about halfway through the reporting season. And thus far, nearly three-out-of-four companies beat expectations. The torrid 20%-plus growth rate we’ve seen the past several quarters is finally beginning to moderate (that pace is unsustainable for long). Still, if you blend the actual results with the latest estimates from the other 270 companies that are due to report soon, S&P earnings are on track to increase 12.4%. That would mark the fifth consecutive quarter of healthy double-digit profit growth. A week earlier, the same methodology pointed toward a growth rate of 10.9%. That means we’ve had some big upside surprises in recent days — mostly in the energy sector. On average, the energy sector is beating consensus earnings expectations by 23%, versus 3.5% for the S&P 500. In fact, this group is single-handedly propping up growth rates for the entire market. As you can see from the chart below, it has been a disappointing quarter for utilities, whose earnings have slipped 5.2% from a year ago. Tech… Read More

Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) is back. Publicly, the energy pipeline master limited partnership (MLP) issued guidance calling for distributable cash flow (DCF) of $4.6 billion in 2018 or $2.05 per share. Quietly, it has been telling stockholders that the numbers were tracking ahead of expectations.  Well, the official count is now in. The company indeed beat the mark, generating $4.73 billion in DCF or $2.12 per share. That’s within two cents of the record high of $2.14 set in 2015. So for all intents and purposes, it has made a full recovery. Yet back then, KMI shares commanded a price… Read More

Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) is back. Publicly, the energy pipeline master limited partnership (MLP) issued guidance calling for distributable cash flow (DCF) of $4.6 billion in 2018 or $2.05 per share. Quietly, it has been telling stockholders that the numbers were tracking ahead of expectations.  Well, the official count is now in. The company indeed beat the mark, generating $4.73 billion in DCF or $2.12 per share. That’s within two cents of the record high of $2.14 set in 2015. So for all intents and purposes, it has made a full recovery. Yet back then, KMI shares commanded a price north of $40. Today, they are still well below $20. That’s difficult to reconcile. Clearly, many investors haven’t forgiven Kinder Morgan for its forced dividend cut in late 2015 as the bottom fell out of the oil market and many midstream partnerships suffered a liquidity crunch. But those days are long gone — distributions were hiked 60% last year, and management is aiming for a 25% encore both this year and next. If you prefer to look at standard earnings rather than cash flow, Kinder Morgan reported net income of $1.481 billion ($0.66 per share) in 2018, versus $27 million… Read More

It’s one of the few holdings in my Daily Paycheck portfolio that has lost ground in 2019… But there’s a good reason. On January 3, Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) unveiled plans to buy Celgene (Nasdaq: CELG) in a blockbuster $74 billion transaction.  Acquirers typically fall when these mega-deals are announced, while shares of the target bolt higher. True to form, BMY slid 14% on the news, while CELG jumped 25%.  Despite the drop, my subscribers and I are still in the black on this one. But is this a good deal? And is BMY worth owning today?  First, let’s… Read More

It’s one of the few holdings in my Daily Paycheck portfolio that has lost ground in 2019… But there’s a good reason. On January 3, Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) unveiled plans to buy Celgene (Nasdaq: CELG) in a blockbuster $74 billion transaction.  Acquirers typically fall when these mega-deals are announced, while shares of the target bolt higher. True to form, BMY slid 14% on the news, while CELG jumped 25%.  Despite the drop, my subscribers and I are still in the black on this one. But is this a good deal? And is BMY worth owning today?  First, let’s get some of the specifics out of the way. Bristol Myers is offering one share of BMY and $50 cash for each share of CELG. There is also the possibility of additional cash remuneration for Celgene investors later down the line (known as a contingent value right, or CVR) if three drugs in the firm’s pipeline eventually gain regulatory approval.  Based on BMY’s share price at the time of the announcement, the bid (excluding CVRs) works out to a little more than $102 per share. That’s a healthy premium of 53% above where CELG closed the day before the announcement. … Read More

Back in December, I wrote about why the major cruise lines are compelling investment candidates right now. One of our loyal readers, Jim C., wrote in to point out that anyone who owns at least 100 shares of Carnival Cruise Lines (NYSE: CCL) is entitled to a unique fringe benefit — up to $250 in complimentary onboard spending credits per cruise.  This isn’t one of those promotional offers you see advertised to the general public. It’s a special perk reserved strictly for Carnival shareholders. Put another way, this $250 offer is equivalent to $2.50 per share for an investor who holds 100 shares. Read More

Back in December, I wrote about why the major cruise lines are compelling investment candidates right now. One of our loyal readers, Jim C., wrote in to point out that anyone who owns at least 100 shares of Carnival Cruise Lines (NYSE: CCL) is entitled to a unique fringe benefit — up to $250 in complimentary onboard spending credits per cruise.  This isn’t one of those promotional offers you see advertised to the general public. It’s a special perk reserved strictly for Carnival shareholders. Put another way, this $250 offer is equivalent to $2.50 per share for an investor who holds 100 shares. That represents a bonus payout of 5.1% on the $48 stock — on top of the 4.3% dividend yield. Double that if you happen to book two cruises. After Jim wrote in to us, my staff and I got to talking… And after doing a little research, it turns out a whole host of companies offers little-known “perks” like this. So I thought it would be fun to take a break from our regular format and focus on four companies that offer special shareholder benefits.  Of course, these enticements alone aren’t necessarily reasons to invest. But since these are all… Read More

As investors, one of our first tasks when evaluating a prospective new portfolio candidate is to ascertain where the company’s sales are headed. There are plenty of other considerations, of course. But first, we need to make some educated assumptions about how many widgets will be going out the door.  Fortunately, we have plenty of tools at our disposal.  We can track inventory turnover rates and tune into conference calls discussing new product development. Sometimes analysts go a step further and conduct channel checks, a fancy way of saying they talk to the company’s suppliers to find out if they… Read More

As investors, one of our first tasks when evaluating a prospective new portfolio candidate is to ascertain where the company’s sales are headed. There are plenty of other considerations, of course. But first, we need to make some educated assumptions about how many widgets will be going out the door.  Fortunately, we have plenty of tools at our disposal.  We can track inventory turnover rates and tune into conference calls discussing new product development. Sometimes analysts go a step further and conduct channel checks, a fancy way of saying they talk to the company’s suppliers to find out if they are ordering more (or fewer) raw materials and components. They might also query customers to see how fast certain products are moving. By collecting information from the supply chain and distribution channels, it’s possible to gain valuable insights on volume and pricing trends.  #-ad_banner-#There’s nothing wrong with any of that.  But sometimes, the most obvious solution is right in front of us. When companies are struggling, they often reduce their workforce. Conversely, when business is picking up, they expand and bring in new employees to meet the increased workload. So, you can gauge demand just by examining hiring trends —… Read More