It’s official… the United States is about to become the largest energy producer in the world (if it’s not already).#-ad_banner-# According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. is currently producing about 22 million equivalent barrels of oil and natural gas a day — up from 18 million barrels in 2008. While no one knows the actual figures for Russia (the largest producer for the past several years), estimates out of Moscow are forecasting the country will produce 21.8 million barrels a day in 2013. Think about that for a second… Just five years ago, lofty energy prices in… Read More

It’s official… the United States is about to become the largest energy producer in the world (if it’s not already).#-ad_banner-# According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. is currently producing about 22 million equivalent barrels of oil and natural gas a day — up from 18 million barrels in 2008. While no one knows the actual figures for Russia (the largest producer for the past several years), estimates out of Moscow are forecasting the country will produce 21.8 million barrels a day in 2013. Think about that for a second… Just five years ago, lofty energy prices in the U.S. nearly crippled the state of the overall economy. Back then there was so much demand for energy — and such little supply — that companies like Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG) were working day and night to build natural gas import terminals to take advantage of cheaper prices overseas. Today, the landscape in the American energy market has completely changed. Thanks to new developments in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”), the U.S. has unlocked waves of oil and gas reserves that were once thought unrecoverable. As you’d expect, the optimism surrounding this “shale boom” has made American energy… Read More

In a fairly rapid time, the solar power industry has been able to tackle two major challenges that threatened to decimate the industry.#-ad_banner-# First, far much too capacity led to rapidly falling prices, which pushed the industry’s weakest players into bankruptcy and has left a few more of them struggling to stay afloat. Restrained capacity growth has become the theme of 2013, enabling demand to catch up, and prices on solar panels are no longer plunging at a rapid clip. Second, the steep fall in solar panel prices has pushed this technology a lot closer to “grid parity,” compared to… Read More

In a fairly rapid time, the solar power industry has been able to tackle two major challenges that threatened to decimate the industry.#-ad_banner-# First, far much too capacity led to rapidly falling prices, which pushed the industry’s weakest players into bankruptcy and has left a few more of them struggling to stay afloat. Restrained capacity growth has become the theme of 2013, enabling demand to catch up, and prices on solar panels are no longer plunging at a rapid clip. Second, the steep fall in solar panel prices has pushed this technology a lot closer to “grid parity,” compared to fossil fuels. If natural gas prices had not also plunged as well in recent years, demand for solar would really be booming. But gas prices have fallen, and it’s unlikely they will spike higher in coming years. Gas drillers will simply boost output any time prices rise, which is OK with an industry that has learned to become profitable with natural gas at $3.50 to $4 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf). Even as gas rallied to $5 per Mcf, solar still couldn’t compete, at least not without government tax credits (that are set to expire in the U.S. in 2016,… Read More

If I had to point to a segment of the natural resources sector with the lowest investor sentiment right now, it might well be coal.  Coal is thought of as antiquated and brutish, a relic that will soon be excised from the ranks of global energy markets.  It’s easy to see why. On the surface, there’s a lot to dislike about coal. The biggest strike against the industry is environmental. This month, the news has been rife with stories about record air pollution nearly shutting down a number of cities in northern China.  Whether it’s for these environmental reasons —… Read More

If I had to point to a segment of the natural resources sector with the lowest investor sentiment right now, it might well be coal.  Coal is thought of as antiquated and brutish, a relic that will soon be excised from the ranks of global energy markets.  It’s easy to see why. On the surface, there’s a lot to dislike about coal. The biggest strike against the industry is environmental. This month, the news has been rife with stories about record air pollution nearly shutting down a number of cities in northern China.  Whether it’s for these environmental reasons — or simply a matter of economics — there’s a sense that the world is turning away from coal.  #-ad_banner-#​Since 2009, China has been the driving force in global coal markets. Coal imports in that country exploded during the past five years, jumping to a peak of 35 million metric tons per month in December 2012. That’s a 1,500% increase from 2008 levels. But growth in China’s coal imports has stalled. Although imports are holding at a relatively high level, the days of explosive increases in import demand appear to have passed.  The sense then is that we may… Read More

Legendary activist investor Carl Icahn has had a tremendous run. In recent years, he’s made a quick fortune on many of his investments, thanks to a combination of savvy stock-picking and occasional cage-rattling.#-ad_banner-# But even Icahn has an off day. Earlier this year, he bought 6 million shares of oil refiner CVR Refining (NYSE: CVRR) just as the entire refinery industry was at a multi-year peak. Shares were trading above $30 when Icahn bough CVR, though as I cautioned in this mid-summer article, refinery stocks subsequently took it on the chin as pricing spreads narrowed between Brent crude and West… Read More

Legendary activist investor Carl Icahn has had a tremendous run. In recent years, he’s made a quick fortune on many of his investments, thanks to a combination of savvy stock-picking and occasional cage-rattling.#-ad_banner-# But even Icahn has an off day. Earlier this year, he bought 6 million shares of oil refiner CVR Refining (NYSE: CVRR) just as the entire refinery industry was at a multi-year peak. Shares were trading above $30 when Icahn bough CVR, though as I cautioned in this mid-summer article, refinery stocks subsequently took it on the chin as pricing spreads narrowed between Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude. Although other refiners such as Valero (NYSE: VLO), HollyFrontier (NYSE: HFC) and Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC) have stabilized or risen since I wrote that piece, Icahn’s pick has really fallen out of bed. The fund manager is now sitting on a 28% loss on CVRR. At this point, Icahn shouldn’t think of selling CVRR. Instead, he should be backing up the truck, as better days lay ahead, both in terms of potential gains and the projected divided yield. A Perfect Storm As I noted this summer, refiners were hurt by a narrowing spread… Read More

Have you heard about the “death gene”? Not to worry — I’ll tell you about an antidote in a moment, but first consider this… The death gene is the genetic variant that apparently can determine — with disconcerting accuracy — your likely departure time from this planet. Researchers in Boston inadvertently made the discovery in the aftermath of a study that looked at sleep patterns. The scientists found that subjects with one particular genetic arrangement died just before 11 a.m., while another group with a different makeup passed away around 6 p.m. Dave Forest, Chief Investment Strategist for StreetAuthority’s Junior… Read More

Have you heard about the “death gene”? Not to worry — I’ll tell you about an antidote in a moment, but first consider this… The death gene is the genetic variant that apparently can determine — with disconcerting accuracy — your likely departure time from this planet. Researchers in Boston inadvertently made the discovery in the aftermath of a study that looked at sleep patterns. The scientists found that subjects with one particular genetic arrangement died just before 11 a.m., while another group with a different makeup passed away around 6 p.m. Dave Forest, Chief Investment Strategist for StreetAuthority’s Junior Resource Advisor, recently discovered a new kind of death gene. It may not predict the demise to the hour like the Boston findings do, but it does tell us to the year — and even the month — when some of the biggest companies in the market might suddenly implode, and perhaps even cease to exist. This potential terminal switch is something investors have grown so accustomed to that few think of it as a problem. But I believe it’s going to rear its ugly head soon and perhaps often — destroying billions in shareholder value, as formerly vibrant businesses… Read More

The past year has not been great — generally speaking — for mining stocks.  Just look at the chart of the Amex Gold Bugs Index below — comprising some of the biggest names in the precious metals mining space. The index has fallen nearly 49% so far in 2013.      Most investors cringe when they look at a chart like this. But many of the savvy industry experts I know in Canada love seeing these big drops, especially when we’re nearing the end of the calendar year.  #-ad_banner-#You see, I’ve worked in the mining and oil and gas sectors… Read More

The past year has not been great — generally speaking — for mining stocks.  Just look at the chart of the Amex Gold Bugs Index below — comprising some of the biggest names in the precious metals mining space. The index has fallen nearly 49% so far in 2013.      Most investors cringe when they look at a chart like this. But many of the savvy industry experts I know in Canada love seeing these big drops, especially when we’re nearing the end of the calendar year.  #-ad_banner-#You see, I’ve worked in the mining and oil and gas sectors for more than a decade, traveling as far as Russia, Chile and Madagascar to inspect natural resource projects. But these days, I call Canada home. And, as editor of StreetAuthority’s premium advisory, Junior Resource Advisor, my job is to provide readers with investment opportunities they won’t find from analysts who sit at a desk all day. And I’m excited when I see a chart like this for one simple reason. It has to do with a “quirk” in the way the Canadian tax system works — a quirk that lets watchful investors buy good resource stocks at double-digit discounts within… Read More

Stocks moved up the fourth week in a row and have delivered a large gain in the first 10 months of the year. For now, there is no reason to expect a reversal in the trend. Stocks Continue Setting New Highs SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) added another 0.15% last week and is now up 25.55% for the year, including dividends.#-ad_banner-# To put this performance into perspective, we can review data for the S&P 500 index going back to 1928. This year’s performance would be the 22nd best year out of 86. After such a strong performance,… Read More

Stocks moved up the fourth week in a row and have delivered a large gain in the first 10 months of the year. For now, there is no reason to expect a reversal in the trend. Stocks Continue Setting New Highs SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) added another 0.15% last week and is now up 25.55% for the year, including dividends.#-ad_banner-# To put this performance into perspective, we can review data for the S&P 500 index going back to 1928. This year’s performance would be the 22nd best year out of 86. After such a strong performance, many investors expect a decline, and the question becomes, “How bad will the decline be?” In the past, large gains have been followed by losing years 43% of the time. Overall, 28% of the 86 years have closed down, so there is a slight bearish bias for 2014. In each of the years that showed a gain larger than this year’s, stocks cooled off in the next year and showed a loss or smaller gain. This information should be used in the next few weeks as we prepare expectations for 2014. Earnings are likely to determine whether 2014 is an… Read More

It started snowing early in Siberia.#-ad_banner-#​ According to Rutgers University’s Global Snow Lab, there is already more than 10 inches of snow on the ground in the massive tundra north of Moscow. That’s the first time 10 inches had already fallen by the end of October since 2002. Roughly 900,000 square miles are covered in snow right now, much higher than the 50-year average of 573,000 square miles. Why should you care? Because the Siberian snowpack provides an uncanny correlation with our winter weather. Scientists call it the negative phase of arctic oscillation. As… Read More

It started snowing early in Siberia.#-ad_banner-#​ According to Rutgers University’s Global Snow Lab, there is already more than 10 inches of snow on the ground in the massive tundra north of Moscow. That’s the first time 10 inches had already fallen by the end of October since 2002. Roughly 900,000 square miles are covered in snow right now, much higher than the 50-year average of 573,000 square miles. Why should you care? Because the Siberian snowpack provides an uncanny correlation with our winter weather. Scientists call it the negative phase of arctic oscillation. As the National Snow and Ice Data Center notes, “A strongly negative phase of the arctic oscillation brings warm weather to high latitudes, and cold, stormy weather to the more temperate regions where people live.”  These climatologists add that in 2009, the arctic oscillation phase was the most negative on record. What was the impact? The U.S. and Europe had brutally cold winters in 2009 and 2010. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, nine of the 10 coldest Januarys in New York City since 1950 have coincided with negative arctic oscillations. Read More

Believe it or not, solar stocks have been some of the best performers in the second half of 2013.#-ad_banner-#​ Earlier this year, analysts began to see an uptick in global demand for solar energy as Japan began transitioning from nuclear power to renewable energy, and other developed nations began increasing purchases of solar energy components. Last quarter, a number of high-profile solar companies reported increasing shipments of solar panels, and this led to a significant rise in stock prices. This rally was from a very depressed base, due to weakness over the past several years that was caused… Read More

Believe it or not, solar stocks have been some of the best performers in the second half of 2013.#-ad_banner-#​ Earlier this year, analysts began to see an uptick in global demand for solar energy as Japan began transitioning from nuclear power to renewable energy, and other developed nations began increasing purchases of solar energy components. Last quarter, a number of high-profile solar companies reported increasing shipments of solar panels, and this led to a significant rise in stock prices. This rally was from a very depressed base, due to weakness over the past several years that was caused by overcapacity, an inventory glut and falling prices for solar components. A number of solar manufacturers were put out of business or forced to merge with competitors due to the challenging environment. At this point, it is a bit difficult to determine how high solar stocks could ultimately trade, because there is so much uncertainty regarding future profits. Aside from industry leader First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR), most solar manufacturers are still operating at a loss. But over the next few years, the profit picture is expected to change. For example, Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE) is expected to cut its… Read More

With each passing quarter, Wall Street analysts tweak their forecasts and price targets, trying their best to predict what a company’s sales and profits will look like three or six months from now. That myopia has led them to miss out one of the greatest long-term success stories in the U.S. economy. It isn’t found in the engineering labs in Silicon Valley or the canyons of Wall Street. Instead, it’s in places like Iowa, Nebraska, Texas and Pennsylvania. That’s where our nation’s most dynamic export opportunities have emerged on vast tracts of arable land. Consider this stat: The U.S. exported… Read More

With each passing quarter, Wall Street analysts tweak their forecasts and price targets, trying their best to predict what a company’s sales and profits will look like three or six months from now. That myopia has led them to miss out one of the greatest long-term success stories in the U.S. economy. It isn’t found in the engineering labs in Silicon Valley or the canyons of Wall Street. Instead, it’s in places like Iowa, Nebraska, Texas and Pennsylvania. That’s where our nation’s most dynamic export opportunities have emerged on vast tracts of arable land. Consider this stat: The U.S. exported $29 billion in corn, wheat, soybeans, apples, pistachios and many other farm products in 1985. A decade later, that figure had doubled, and by 2010, surpassed $115 billion. The U.S. also imports many farm items as well. But in 2012, the farm belt ran a $38 billion trade surplus. How many industries can say that? And there’s no reason to expect this trend to reverse course. Simply put, heavy investments in technology have enabled our farmers to become the most productive in the world. Here’s a look at three companies that should prosper in the years… Read More