Exactly one year ago, analysts at Merrill Lynch raised their price target on little-known Intercept Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ICPT) from $29 to $42, due to “an increased conviction that the company’s lead drug OCA will be approved by the FDA.” They were right to be bullish — but they missed on the magnitude of this stock’s potential upside. Bullish feedback from the FDA pushed this stock from under $75 on Jan. 8 to $445 on Jan. 10. It’s hard to recall the last time a stock went vertical like that.#-ad_banner-#​ But… Read More

Exactly one year ago, analysts at Merrill Lynch raised their price target on little-known Intercept Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ICPT) from $29 to $42, due to “an increased conviction that the company’s lead drug OCA will be approved by the FDA.” They were right to be bullish — but they missed on the magnitude of this stock’s potential upside. Bullish feedback from the FDA pushed this stock from under $75 on Jan. 8 to $445 on Jan. 10. It’s hard to recall the last time a stock went vertical like that.#-ad_banner-#​ But the bloom is already off the rose, and shares opened trading this week with a more than $50 plunge. As the dust settles, it’s time to see if the pullback is just a bump in the road, or signs of more weakness to come. An Unmet Need Any biotech company that aims for glory should target an unmet medical need and a large patient population. It’s a swing-for-the-fences opportunity that rarely pays off, but Intercept appears to have succeeded with its key drug: obeticholic acid (OCA). OCA is derived from naturally occurring chemicals in the bile duct, which aids… Read More

Investors are often told that the best time to buy is when everyone seems to be excessively negative on a sector or a country. That was certainly true in 2013 for investors who were able to trade in the sovereign debt of Greece.#-ad_banner-#​ Investors enjoyed a gain of 47% on Greek government debt last year even as fears of Greek default lingered throughout the year and the economic news remained mostly negative. Of course, most individual investors couldn’t actually invest directly in Greek bonds, and returns from investments that were available to individual investors were significantly lower. For… Read More

Investors are often told that the best time to buy is when everyone seems to be excessively negative on a sector or a country. That was certainly true in 2013 for investors who were able to trade in the sovereign debt of Greece.#-ad_banner-#​ Investors enjoyed a gain of 47% on Greek government debt last year even as fears of Greek default lingered throughout the year and the economic news remained mostly negative. Of course, most individual investors couldn’t actually invest directly in Greek bonds, and returns from investments that were available to individual investors were significantly lower. For example, the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK) gained 25% in 2013, less than U.S. stocks — even though Greek stocks should have benefited from the same factors that drove Greek bonds higher.  Given the higher risk Greek stocks provided, buying when the news was negative in early 2013 doesn’t seem to have been a wise investment for most individuals. The example of Greece illustrates some problems with the idea of buying bad news — there is no way to know when the news is bad enough to drive big gains, and there is no way to be… Read More

Ever since the nation declared war on cancer, back in 1971 when President Richard Nixon signed the National Cancer Act, it’s been an uphill battle. Cancer is still the second-leading cause of death in the U.S., behind heart disease.#-ad_banner-#​ But a remarkable set of breakthroughs in medical research labs are giving doctors reason to believe that this long-standing battle may soon be won — and the credit goes to our own immune systems.  Scientists began to realize that if patients could produce more immune system cells, their bodies could overwhelm tumors. So these medical researchers began extracting these… Read More

Ever since the nation declared war on cancer, back in 1971 when President Richard Nixon signed the National Cancer Act, it’s been an uphill battle. Cancer is still the second-leading cause of death in the U.S., behind heart disease.#-ad_banner-#​ But a remarkable set of breakthroughs in medical research labs are giving doctors reason to believe that this long-standing battle may soon be won — and the credit goes to our own immune systems.  Scientists began to realize that if patients could produce more immune system cells, their bodies could overwhelm tumors. So these medical researchers began extracting these cells from patients’ blood, greatly multiplied them in medical research labs, and reinserted them back into the patient. Although this approach had been studied — with mixed results — for a number of years, a key breakthrough arrived last spring at the annual meeting held by the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO).  That’s when Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) stunned the conference with its release of powerful efficacy and safety data for nivolumab. Nearly a third of patients taking the experimental drug saw their tumors shrink by a significant margin, and further refinements for this drug… Read More

The Who sang about “My Generation,” Pepsi gave us “The Choice of a New Generation,” and the technology industry has long been abuzz about “next-gen” everything. “Next-gen” basically refers to any disruptive game-changing, legacy-crushing breakthrough in applications, software, hardware and anything else data-related. (The phrase isn’t exclusive to IT, but techies seem to take it more literally than others.) Anytime a technology comes along that renders a legacy system useless, it’s a very big deal.#-ad_banner-#​ Anytime a company is referred to as the pioneer of that technology and a Forrester Research analyst says its competitors… Read More

The Who sang about “My Generation,” Pepsi gave us “The Choice of a New Generation,” and the technology industry has long been abuzz about “next-gen” everything. “Next-gen” basically refers to any disruptive game-changing, legacy-crushing breakthrough in applications, software, hardware and anything else data-related. (The phrase isn’t exclusive to IT, but techies seem to take it more literally than others.) Anytime a technology comes along that renders a legacy system useless, it’s a very big deal.#-ad_banner-#​ Anytime a company is referred to as the pioneer of that technology and a Forrester Research analyst says its competitors are “stuck in a rut,” it’s a very, very big deal. Anytime a product is tied so closely to the well-being of corporate America, consumers and national security… well, you get the idea. The very big next-gen technology I’m talking about is a new firewall already on the verge of moving from a revolutionary breakthrough to a mainstream adoption.  A firewall prevents malware from getting into computer systems and sensitive data from leaking out. It acts like a doorman at a club, giving access only to those on the guest list. Before the Internet threw curveball after curveball at networked computer… Read More

It’s never fun to start the new year with word that Congress is looking to attack your business model. For operators in the cable TV industry, the possibility of onerous legislation is just one of the headaches for industry executives. Rapid technological changes and growing consumer dissatisfaction also promise to bring plenty of misery to this remarkably profitable industry. Investors should consider repositioning their portfolios now to avoid the fallout to come.#-ad_banner-#​ Attacked from all sides As a recent article in The Wall Street Journal notes, three different prices of legislation are… Read More

It’s never fun to start the new year with word that Congress is looking to attack your business model. For operators in the cable TV industry, the possibility of onerous legislation is just one of the headaches for industry executives. Rapid technological changes and growing consumer dissatisfaction also promise to bring plenty of misery to this remarkably profitable industry. Investors should consider repositioning their portfolios now to avoid the fallout to come.#-ad_banner-#​ Attacked from all sides As a recent article in The Wall Street Journal notes, three different prices of legislation are being pursued in the halls of Congress. They would: •    force cable companies to keep their Internet lines fully available to rivals that aim to stream video and other TV content •    break up the all-or-nothing packaging choices that currently force consumers to pay upwards of $100 dollars per month, even if they watch just a few channels. (SNL Kagan estimates that consumers watch fewer than 10% of the channels they receive)   •    force cable companies to negotiate more favorable deals with broadcast networks It may be a while before any of these… Read More

As consumers, we love our new cars, the hottest electronics and great food. However, we rarely think about how those items get to our local stores.#-ad_banner-# Broadly speaking, all those things are brought to us by the shipping industry. Grocers, electronics stores and energy companies all rely on major trucking and shipping companies. And a rebounding economy is great for shippers and transporters. After all, the more goods people buy, the more goods are shipped. However, what many investors don’t realize is that the best way to play the shipping market might not be your typical trucking or rail company,… Read More

As consumers, we love our new cars, the hottest electronics and great food. However, we rarely think about how those items get to our local stores.#-ad_banner-# Broadly speaking, all those things are brought to us by the shipping industry. Grocers, electronics stores and energy companies all rely on major trucking and shipping companies. And a rebounding economy is great for shippers and transporters. After all, the more goods people buy, the more goods are shipped. However, what many investors don’t realize is that the best way to play the shipping market might not be your typical trucking or rail company, but the company that helps those providers operate more efficiently. That’s where Echo Global Logistics (Nasdaq: ECHO) comes in. Echo caters to the shipping industry, providing transportation and supply management solutions. Its business model is centered on serving clients in the transactional spot market, as well as providing full service third-party logistics (3PL) outsourcing and analytics. Echo offers a developed platform that’s easily deployed, making the company highly scalable. Echo’s key customers are small and midsize shippers, but the entire 3PL outsourcing industry is growing quite nicely: nearly three times as fast as the transportation industry as whole, according to… Read More

Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) is once again on my radar as a long-side play, with the stock trading in a tight pattern and coiling up nicely for a likely push past resistance sooner rather than later. The stock is displaying buying pressure and consolidation on the daily chart, and the longer-term chart offers good reference levels that match up with a near-term resistance area. Typically, HPQ has a positive correlation, and thus price sensitivity, to movements in stocks like Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and other chipmakers and semiconductor manufacturers. As such, when trading HPQ, it is important to keep a close eye… Read More

Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) is once again on my radar as a long-side play, with the stock trading in a tight pattern and coiling up nicely for a likely push past resistance sooner rather than later. The stock is displaying buying pressure and consolidation on the daily chart, and the longer-term chart offers good reference levels that match up with a near-term resistance area. Typically, HPQ has a positive correlation, and thus price sensitivity, to movements in stocks like Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and other chipmakers and semiconductor manufacturers. As such, when trading HPQ, it is important to keep a close eye on the semiconductor complex.#-ad_banner-# One way to monitor this sector is via the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (NYSE: SMH), and right now that ETF shows the group remains constructively positioned. Recently, HPQ announced a host of new all-in-one (AiO) PCs, including the company’s first AiO built for Google’s (NASDAQ: GOOG) Android operating system. The new PCs are equipped with larger HD displays and quick access features to the web, including easy access to the Google Play app store. On the multi-year chart looking back to 2007, we see that HPQ is trading just marginally higher today than it was at… Read More

When I was a kid, I had a friend named Corey. His folks were loaded: His dad was a successful gynecologist, and his mom “came from money,” as polite people used to say. The family cars were all Mercedes-Benzes.  I was fortunate to have a relatively affluent upbringing, so luxury cars were not unknown to me. But one thing set Corey’s family’s cars apart: They had cell phones. #-ad_banner-#During the 1980s in Wichita, Kan., cellular telephones were an exorbitantly expensive device limited mainly to very serious oilmen and very important physicians. But when I could finally afford it a decade… Read More

When I was a kid, I had a friend named Corey. His folks were loaded: His dad was a successful gynecologist, and his mom “came from money,” as polite people used to say. The family cars were all Mercedes-Benzes.  I was fortunate to have a relatively affluent upbringing, so luxury cars were not unknown to me. But one thing set Corey’s family’s cars apart: They had cell phones. #-ad_banner-#During the 1980s in Wichita, Kan., cellular telephones were an exorbitantly expensive device limited mainly to very serious oilmen and very important physicians. But when I could finally afford it a decade later, during my sophomore year of college, I became an early adopter of the technology and bought a Nokia handheld model. It was expensive-ish, I suppose, but the convenience made sense to me, and it wasn’t like I had a mortgage to worry about. Well, you know what happened. It wasn’t much longer before the cell phone trend caught on and then took off. The technology grew better and better, and so did the service, which simultaneously became cheaper and cheaper. Now, of course, no self-respecting college student — or street-corner bum — lacks a cell phone. Think about how… Read More

In the midst of an astonishing nationwide cold snap, it’s a good time to see which stocks are poised to profit. Many investors would look to utilities and energy companies, but one of the best plays could be a leading cold-weather apparel maker.  There’s no better way to bundle up in cold weather than with a warm jacket. For investors, that means VF Corp. (NYSE: VFC), owner of The North Face brand, is worth a long look.#-ad_banner-# VF Corp., which also owns footwear maker Timberland and denim brand Lee and Wrangler, has been making the transition to e-commerce… Read More

In the midst of an astonishing nationwide cold snap, it’s a good time to see which stocks are poised to profit. Many investors would look to utilities and energy companies, but one of the best plays could be a leading cold-weather apparel maker.  There’s no better way to bundle up in cold weather than with a warm jacket. For investors, that means VF Corp. (NYSE: VFC), owner of The North Face brand, is worth a long look.#-ad_banner-# VF Corp., which also owns footwear maker Timberland and denim brand Lee and Wrangler, has been making the transition to e-commerce and increasing its direct-to-consumer business, which has higher margins. In the third quarter, these initiatives paid off as direct-to-consumer sales jumped 14%. Direct-to-consumer sales were even stronger for The North Face, which posted a sales increase of 28%.  Overall, revenue rose 5% in the quarter from the same period the previous year, to $3.3 billion, and earnings per share (EPS) of $3.91 was $0.13 better than expectations. Of the company’s 15 brands, 14 posted sales gains. For the full year, VF Corp. is expected to generate $1.4 billion in cash. Of this, $400 million will go toward debt reduction. The… Read More

You don’t need a crystal ball to see where the U.S. economy is headed in coming years. We already know. Certain industries are poised for very good years ahead, and there’s no need to wait around for signs of their revival.  Nor do you need to spend days or weeks finding the right stocks to play such themes. Well-constructed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have already built portfolios with all the exposure you’ll ever need. Let’s take a closer look. 1.    The Manufacturing Renaissance​ More than a year ago, I read one of the most compelling business articles… Read More

You don’t need a crystal ball to see where the U.S. economy is headed in coming years. We already know. Certain industries are poised for very good years ahead, and there’s no need to wait around for signs of their revival.  Nor do you need to spend days or weeks finding the right stocks to play such themes. Well-constructed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have already built portfolios with all the exposure you’ll ever need. Let’s take a closer look. 1.    The Manufacturing Renaissance​ More than a year ago, I read one of the most compelling business articles written in the recent era. As the authors noted about a strategic decision by General Electric (NYSE: GE) to crank up once-dormant assembly lines here in the U.S., it simply no longer made sense to build the company’s hot water heaters in China: “A funny thing happened to the GeoSpring on the way from the cheap Chinese factory to the expensive Kentucky factory: The material cost went down. The labor required to make it went down. The quality went up. Even the energy efficiency went up. GE wasn’t just able to hold the retail sticker to the ‘China price.’ It beat that… Read More