Even as the high-profile spat between the United States and China over the too-cheap Chinese currency gets much press coverage, currency wars are brewing all over the place. And how these battles shake out will determine whether the global… Read More

Brazil is emerging as one of the great stories of the 21st century. Sound economic policies and abundant natural resources have led to sustained economic growth. And investors are racing to get in to this Samba party — the iShares Brazil (NYSE: EWZ) exchange-traded… Read More

The world is changing fast. Economic dominance is undergoing an epic shift. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the gross domestic product (GDP) of the world’s emerging… Read More

As my colleague Mike Turner has noted, September was one for the record books. [Read Mike’s article here] And as Mike notes, it never hurts to play a little defense after such a good run. But in these markets, you’ll need to stay nimble. Coming earnings reports may just be good enough to keep the markets moving north, forestalling the moment when profit-taking dominates the action. With that in mind, let’s look at three companies that will report quarterly results in the next week or so. What they have to say about business… Read More

As my colleague Mike Turner has noted, September was one for the record books. [Read Mike’s article here] And as Mike notes, it never hurts to play a little defense after such a good run. But in these markets, you’ll need to stay nimble. Coming earnings reports may just be good enough to keep the markets moving north, forestalling the moment when profit-taking dominates the action. With that in mind, let’s look at three companies that will report quarterly results in the next week or so. What they have to say about business conditions may well set the trading tone for the rest of October and beyond. Aloca (NYSE: AA) On the first Monday in October, the Supreme Court kicks off a new term. And a few days after that, Alcoa always kicks off earnings season. For the past few years, Alcoa has set a somber tone as global demand for aluminum has been in a slump ever since Europe and the United States headed into the downturn. Yet I recently opined that a turn may be coming for Alcoa. [Read: “The Best… Read More

Here’s the thing about sin: though ugly, it tends to roll on in any economy. This fact is a huge benefit to companies that deal in vice. When searching for investments in a slow-growth or uncertain economy, investors often look to defensive industries such as healthcare, food and utilities. After all, people still get sick and need to eat and stay warm regardless of the state of the economy. But, it’s seldom mentioned that people consistently do something else in any economy — drink and smoke. In… Read More

Here’s the thing about sin: though ugly, it tends to roll on in any economy. This fact is a huge benefit to companies that deal in vice. When searching for investments in a slow-growth or uncertain economy, investors often look to defensive industries such as healthcare, food and utilities. After all, people still get sick and need to eat and stay warm regardless of the state of the economy. But, it’s seldom mentioned that people consistently do something else in any economy — drink and smoke. In fact, vice just might be the most defensive business of all. Stocks in the cigarette and beer industries seem to keep on making profits and the stocks keep going up regardless of what the market is doing. While the S&P 500 is lower now than it was 10 years ago, Morningstar’s cigarette industry category soared at a remarkable average of more than +21% a year for the past 10 years. The Beverage-Brewer (beer) category returned an average of about +16% per year for the same period. And the outperformance is continuing. Read More

There are plenty of good reasons to believe inflation is coming. U.S. government debt has surpassed $9 trillion, nearly tripling from $3.4 trillion in 2000. And things are getting worse. The government ran a deficit of $1.42 trillion in 2009 alone. Even as the economy has recovered, the current administration estimates the deficit for 2010 will be $1.5 trillion. [See Nathan Slaughter’s “Shocking Facts About the U.S. Debt Problem…”] How is the… Read More

There are plenty of good reasons to believe inflation is coming. U.S. government debt has surpassed $9 trillion, nearly tripling from $3.4 trillion in 2000. And things are getting worse. The government ran a deficit of $1.42 trillion in 2009 alone. Even as the economy has recovered, the current administration estimates the deficit for 2010 will be $1.5 trillion. [See Nathan Slaughter’s “Shocking Facts About the U.S. Debt Problem…”] How is the government going to pay all that debt? One way is inflation. The Federal Reserve has every incentive to boost inflation because it would in effect reduce the debt, as it would be paid with devalued dollars. Meanwhile, the government is injecting money into the system by basically giving it away. The current discount rate (the rate charged to commercial banks to borrow money from the Fed) is a microscopic 0.75%. To add perspective, the discount rate was 5.25% in 2006 and 19% in 1980. A massive flood of… Read More

During the course of 2010, investors have continually fretted that the solar power industry was headed for severe slump. They worried that too many new factories were set to produce far more solar panels than the industry could absorb. And that supply increase was coming right at a time when… Read More

If you had a crystal ball in the 1960s, you probably would have seen that Japan would turn out to be a great investment. The country’s economy was growing nicely, family birth rates were high enough to ensure a young workforce, its education… Read More

Cyclical stocks have always been tricky for investors. At the bottom of an economic cycle, they can appear to have fairly high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios as investors look ahead to better times. When the cycle improves and approaches a peak, the P/E multiple… Read More

Investing in China has not been for the faint of heart. Shares of major companies have surged and fallen in repeating cycles during the past few years. But take a step back and note that China’s economic growth has only been going one way… Read More