The S&P 500 Index is the most commonly tracked investment benchmark in the United States. When you hear about a portfolio manager “beating the market,” chances are it is in reference to outperforming the S&P 500. Read More

As my colleague Mike Turner has noted, September was one for the record books. [Read Mike’s article here] And as Mike notes, it never hurts to play a little defense after such a good run. But in these markets, you’ll need to stay nimble. Coming earnings reports may just be good enough to keep the markets moving north, forestalling the moment when profit-taking dominates the action. With that in mind, let’s look at three companies that will report quarterly results in the next week or so. What they have to say about business… Read More

As my colleague Mike Turner has noted, September was one for the record books. [Read Mike’s article here] And as Mike notes, it never hurts to play a little defense after such a good run. But in these markets, you’ll need to stay nimble. Coming earnings reports may just be good enough to keep the markets moving north, forestalling the moment when profit-taking dominates the action. With that in mind, let’s look at three companies that will report quarterly results in the next week or so. What they have to say about business conditions may well set the trading tone for the rest of October and beyond. Aloca (NYSE: AA) On the first Monday in October, the Supreme Court kicks off a new term. And a few days after that, Alcoa always kicks off earnings season. For the past few years, Alcoa has set a somber tone as global demand for aluminum has been in a slump ever since Europe and the United States headed into the downturn. Yet I recently opined that a turn may be coming for Alcoa. [Read: “The Best… Read More

In recent weeks, stock market pundits have been wrestling with a curious phenomenon. Trading activity has fallen sharply, which these market-watchers presume to mean that investors have lost interest in stocks. Mom-and-pop investors have likely become more gun-shy this year. But the main culprit for lower trading volumes: Wall Street’s… Read More

It’s important to keep track of the moves by insiders, as they can point you in the direction of undervalued (or overvalued) stocks. I like to scan the recent buying and selling lists from insiders either daily or weekly, but a monthly look is… Read More

There are plenty of good reasons to believe inflation is coming. U.S. government debt has surpassed $9 trillion, nearly tripling from $3.4 trillion in 2000. And things are getting worse. The government ran a deficit of $1.42 trillion in 2009 alone. Even as the economy has recovered, the current administration estimates the deficit for 2010 will be $1.5 trillion. [See Nathan Slaughter’s “Shocking Facts About the U.S. Debt Problem…”] How is the… Read More

There are plenty of good reasons to believe inflation is coming. U.S. government debt has surpassed $9 trillion, nearly tripling from $3.4 trillion in 2000. And things are getting worse. The government ran a deficit of $1.42 trillion in 2009 alone. Even as the economy has recovered, the current administration estimates the deficit for 2010 will be $1.5 trillion. [See Nathan Slaughter’s “Shocking Facts About the U.S. Debt Problem…”] How is the government going to pay all that debt? One way is inflation. The Federal Reserve has every incentive to boost inflation because it would in effect reduce the debt, as it would be paid with devalued dollars. Meanwhile, the government is injecting money into the system by basically giving it away. The current discount rate (the rate charged to commercial banks to borrow money from the Fed) is a microscopic 0.75%. To add perspective, the discount rate was 5.25% in 2006 and 19% in 1980. A massive flood of… Read More

The numbers are out and it’s official: this year’s summer was the fourth-warmest on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Moreover, on a population-weighted basis, it was perhaps the warmest summer on record in the United States. Yet here we are with natural gas… Read More

My phone is an old Nokia about the size of a small brick. It doesn’t take pictures, tell me the weather or connect to the Internet. That’s the way I like it. In a world that has grown increasingly complex, I feel like a… Read More

Even as the national economy manages to stay above water, the local picture is more complex. A number of states are starting to bounce back while other local economies remain under duress. Compared to a year ago, the employment picture has gotten even worse… Read More

Gold is on the march. The yellow metal is spiking to a new all time (non inflation-adjusted) highs of nearly $1,300 per ounce on renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve’s next moves will only strengthen the case for higher gold prices down the road. Let’s take a closer look at some key questions to see if gold is set to shine even brighter or eventually lose its luster. Q: What is the Fed concerned about? A: In its most recent statement after Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC)… Read More

Gold is on the march. The yellow metal is spiking to a new all time (non inflation-adjusted) highs of nearly $1,300 per ounce on renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve’s next moves will only strengthen the case for higher gold prices down the road. Let’s take a closer look at some key questions to see if gold is set to shine even brighter or eventually lose its luster. Q: What is the Fed concerned about? A: In its most recent statement after Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, the Fed noted that potential deflation is of increasing concern. (Core annual inflation has been running at 0.9% for five months in a row, its lowest pace since 1966.) Any drop in prices could spell real trouble for the economy and would imperil borrowers that are seeing lower income but constant debt levels. Q: What might the Fed do? A: To help support prices, the Fed can inject money… Read More

Although investors typically seek out stocks that are poised to rise, they also need to closely monitor what’s happening among short-sellers. These short-sellers often identify red flags well before Wall Street analysts or the financial media spot them. And if you are long a stock that is heavily shorted, you’ll need to dig deeper to try to find out why. (For example, you can go back to archived version of the most recent conference call to listen to what concerns arose during the Q&A). Twice a month, the Nasdaq and the… Read More

Although investors typically seek out stocks that are poised to rise, they also need to closely monitor what’s happening among short-sellers. These short-sellers often identify red flags well before Wall Street analysts or the financial media spot them. And if you are long a stock that is heavily shorted, you’ll need to dig deeper to try to find out why. (For example, you can go back to archived version of the most recent conference call to listen to what concerns arose during the Q&A). Twice a month, the Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange issue updated information about stocks that are heavily shorted. You can find that data on their websites, shortsqueeze.com, or in the Market Data section of The Wall Street Journal. Here’s a key breakdown of the short interest lists you need to know: Biggest Short Positions — Stocks on this list are not necessarily there because they are in trouble. Instead, they may simply be seen as a negative bet on the broader stock market or a particular sector. In the most recent data, three of the most five heavily shorted investments are… Read More