All major U.S. indices closed higher last week following a loss the week earlier, as the market continued what has thus far been a choppy but relatively flat 2015. One exception has been the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which led last week, closing 4.3% higher, and is now up 7.1% for the year.  As I have been stating here for some time, the market is vulnerable to an overdue summer correction as the Federal Reserve gets closer to an inevitable interest rate hike. However, as long as perennial market leaders like the Nasdaq 100 and small-cap Russell… Read More

All major U.S. indices closed higher last week following a loss the week earlier, as the market continued what has thus far been a choppy but relatively flat 2015. One exception has been the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which led last week, closing 4.3% higher, and is now up 7.1% for the year.  As I have been stating here for some time, the market is vulnerable to an overdue summer correction as the Federal Reserve gets closer to an inevitable interest rate hike. However, as long as perennial market leaders like the Nasdaq 100 and small-cap Russell 2000 continue to outperform the broader market, this year’s modest overall advance can continue in the near term. #-ad_banner-# All sectors of the S&P 500 finished in positive territory last week, led by technology and consumer discretionary.  Although energy was the weakest sector, my own ETF-based metric shows it had the biggest inflow of sector bet-related investor assets over the past one-month and three-month periods. This suggests the likelihood of more outright strength and… Read More

What kind of companies can you count on to generate value, even when the rest of the market is in a slump? If history is any guide, then one class of stocks consistently enjoys solid demand from consumers. In fact, this sector is considered by many to be full of great “rainy day stocks.” The sector in question: consumer non-discretionaries, otherwise known as consumer staples. Here’s just one example of their resilience. Between January 1, 2007 and January 1, 2010, the S&P 500 plummeted, returning negative 21% over that period. In contrast, one of these stocks — which I’ll describe shortly… Read More

What kind of companies can you count on to generate value, even when the rest of the market is in a slump? If history is any guide, then one class of stocks consistently enjoys solid demand from consumers. In fact, this sector is considered by many to be full of great “rainy day stocks.” The sector in question: consumer non-discretionaries, otherwise known as consumer staples. Here’s just one example of their resilience. Between January 1, 2007 and January 1, 2010, the S&P 500 plummeted, returning negative 21% over that period. In contrast, one of these stocks — which I’ll describe shortly — went up 51%. In other words, if you owned it during the recession, then this stock would have earned you money. Not many companies can make that claim. Because of the products they sell — basic foodstuffs and household essentials like toothpaste and soap — these companies resist the cyclical swings of the market at large. Unlike their luxury counterparts, people can’t give up buying their products, even when the economy goes downhill. Cars and travel are the perfect counterexamples: people spend more on them during bull markets, but cut back when income gets tight. So in the case… Read More

We often write about a group of stocks known as the “Dividend Aristocrats.” These stocks have a long track record of dividend payment increases, which make them among the most reliable income-producing investments you can find. But these stocks have one clear drawback: they are so loved by so many investors that their share prices often get pushed up to levels that translate into a mediocre dividend yield. Among the more than 50 stocks that qualify for Dividend Aristocrat status, only three of them — AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T), HCP, Inc. (NYSE: HCP) and Consolidated Edison, Inc. (NYSE: ED) —… Read More

We often write about a group of stocks known as the “Dividend Aristocrats.” These stocks have a long track record of dividend payment increases, which make them among the most reliable income-producing investments you can find. But these stocks have one clear drawback: they are so loved by so many investors that their share prices often get pushed up to levels that translate into a mediocre dividend yield. Among the more than 50 stocks that qualify for Dividend Aristocrat status, only three of them — AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T), HCP, Inc. (NYSE: HCP) and Consolidated Edison, Inc. (NYSE: ED) — have dividend yields above 4%. The 30-day SEC Yield on the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrat ETF (NYSE: NOBL) is just 1.96%. Yet there is another group of stocks that have no shot at ever joining the Dividend Aristocrats. They are simply ignored by any investor that craves dividend stability. These companies, by the very nature of their business models, are simply in no position to guarantee that dividends will remain constant and growing. In fact, from time to time, these companies decide not to pay a dividend at all. Let me use Northern Tier Energy LP (NYSE: NTI) as… Read More

All major U.S. indices declined last week. This followed a strong showing the week before, as the market continued its year-long trend of lurching back and forth while remaining essentially unchanged.   Last week’s decline was led by the Nasdaq 100, which could prove problematic this week because of the market-leading index’s position just above a key support level that I have been discussing here for some time. Another potential problem is the economically sensitive Dow Jones Transportation Average, which as I mentioned in last week’s report, continues to negotiate… Read More

All major U.S. indices declined last week. This followed a strong showing the week before, as the market continued its year-long trend of lurching back and forth while remaining essentially unchanged.   Last week’s decline was led by the Nasdaq 100, which could prove problematic this week because of the market-leading index’s position just above a key support level that I have been discussing here for some time. Another potential problem is the economically sensitive Dow Jones Transportation Average, which as I mentioned in last week’s report, continues to negotiate major support at its 200-day moving average, now at 8,689, and may be failing there. #-ad_banner-# While industrials and consumer discretionary led the broader market lower last week, energy was the only sector of the S&P 500 to finish in positive territory, gaining 2.2%. In the previous report, I said that energy “continues to look like an emerging investment opportunity over the next one to two quarters.” Last week’s strong showing within an otherwise weak market suggests the move… Read More

Although ‘wide moat’ isn’t a term often applied to small cap investments, this unusual combination does exist. Take US Ecology, Inc. (Nasdaq: ECOL), a relatively small waste-management firm that handles hazardous, non-hazardous and radioactive waste. With only about $1 billion in market value and sales of $447 million last year, US Ecology is dwarfed by industry giant Waste Management, Inc. (NYSE: WM). That firm is worth nearly $25 billion and boasts annual revenue of $14 billion. Yet US Ecology displays consistency more often associated with much larger companies. Indeed, revenue and net income grew every year during the past decade… Read More

Although ‘wide moat’ isn’t a term often applied to small cap investments, this unusual combination does exist. Take US Ecology, Inc. (Nasdaq: ECOL), a relatively small waste-management firm that handles hazardous, non-hazardous and radioactive waste. With only about $1 billion in market value and sales of $447 million last year, US Ecology is dwarfed by industry giant Waste Management, Inc. (NYSE: WM). That firm is worth nearly $25 billion and boasts annual revenue of $14 billion. Yet US Ecology displays consistency more often associated with much larger companies. Indeed, revenue and net income grew every year during the past decade (except 2009 and 2010 when the economy was in bad shape). Plus, this year will be the firm’s eleventh straight with a dividend. Free cash flow, now $43 million annually, is at an all-time high, which bodes well for dividend growth. And despite large acquisition costs last year, US Ecology is in solid financial shape, with debt levels not much greater than the industry average. Such results would be impossible to achieve without a formidable moat, a term coined by investing legend Warren Buffett to describe hard-to-penetrate economic defenses typically surrounding the strongest companies. US Ecology boasts several. Recurring Revenue… Read More

Over the past five years, the United States economy has been on the mend. So why is there still a pervasive sense that we’re stuck in the mud? Perhaps it’s because our economy has expanded at a 2.2%-to-2.4% rate in each of the past three years. That seems downright anemic compared to economic growth rates seen in prior decades. Yet every spring, economists sing the same refrain: “This is the year we’ll finally reach 3% GDP growth, and the economic recovery will finally feel real.” This year began with a similar refrain. According to a Wall… Read More

Over the past five years, the United States economy has been on the mend. So why is there still a pervasive sense that we’re stuck in the mud? Perhaps it’s because our economy has expanded at a 2.2%-to-2.4% rate in each of the past three years. That seems downright anemic compared to economic growth rates seen in prior decades. Yet every spring, economists sing the same refrain: “This is the year we’ll finally reach 3% GDP growth, and the economic recovery will finally feel real.” This year began with a similar refrain. According to a Wall Street Journal survey conducted in January, economists looked into their crystal balls and once again predicted a 3% economic growth rate this year. (That article suggested that the economy grew 2.6% last year, but that figure has been subsequently ratcheted down to 2.4%.) “The plunge in energy prices provides big dividends to consumers and businesses,” said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist of the Economic Outlook Group to the WSJ at the time. Here’s the problem: any sort of oil-related dividend is nowhere to be found. Consider this recent sampling of economic data points: — Revolving credit (which mostly reflects credit… Read More

For novice investors it’s always the hardest part: where do you begin? But it’s not only novice investors that have this problem. No matter where an investor falls on the learning curve, it’s tough to know what stock to buy, which strategy to pursue or which retirement account to use. Even the basics can be overwhelming for somebody new to the market. Should you invest in a Roth IRA, Traditional IRA, Simple IRA, SEP IRA, Uni-401(k), Mutual Funds, ETFs, stocks, bonds? The list goes on… Investors are literally inundated with options. And if you go to a financial advisor, most… Read More

For novice investors it’s always the hardest part: where do you begin? But it’s not only novice investors that have this problem. No matter where an investor falls on the learning curve, it’s tough to know what stock to buy, which strategy to pursue or which retirement account to use. Even the basics can be overwhelming for somebody new to the market. Should you invest in a Roth IRA, Traditional IRA, Simple IRA, SEP IRA, Uni-401(k), Mutual Funds, ETFs, stocks, bonds? The list goes on… Investors are literally inundated with options. And if you go to a financial advisor, most require at least $50,000 and can charge outrageous fees. Most investors start out with a few hundred bucks and stuff it in a savings account, earning next to nothing, simply because they don’t know what else to do with it. #-ad_banner-#These were the shoes Matthew Michaels, a young father who works here in the StreetAuthority office, was in when his grandparents gave his two young daughters money for Christmas last year. At first, he figured he’d use the money to buy more diapers and onesies, but after talking it over with his wife, they decided to invest it for their… Read More

Dear Readers, Before we get to the Market Outlook, I want to share a short but important document with you. It contains the track record of a trading prodigy who averaged 56.8% returns with an average holding period of just 27 days. It may sound too good to be true, but it’s not. This fact sheet, which takes no more than a few minutes to read, will tell you everything you need to know about his unique strategy — and how you can get his next eight trades without making any long-term commitment. … Read More

Dear Readers, Before we get to the Market Outlook, I want to share a short but important document with you. It contains the track record of a trading prodigy who averaged 56.8% returns with an average holding period of just 27 days. It may sound too good to be true, but it’s not. This fact sheet, which takes no more than a few minutes to read, will tell you everything you need to know about his unique strategy — and how you can get his next eight trades without making any long-term commitment. Get the facts here. Sincerely, Frank Bermea Publisher, Profitable Trading   One recurring theme within what has otherwise been a lackluster 2015 thus far for the U.S. stock market is its ability to quickly recover from the brink of a corrective decline. We saw this phenomenon again last week as all major indices finished in the black. They were led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which edged below key underlying support levels a week earlier. On the sector front, last week’s advance was led by… Read More

#-ad_banner-#The rapid surge in the dollar has thus far had little impact on the stock market. But it soon will.  In the upcoming earnings season, you’ll be hearing a lot about how many companies in the S&P 500 are having a tough time racking up sales in their foreign subsidiaries. And when you consider that few expect the dollar to pull back any time soon, this trend is likely to persist for at least the rest of 2015.  As we’ve noted in the past, larger companies tend to have much greater global exposure than smaller companies. And in the face… Read More

#-ad_banner-#The rapid surge in the dollar has thus far had little impact on the stock market. But it soon will.  In the upcoming earnings season, you’ll be hearing a lot about how many companies in the S&P 500 are having a tough time racking up sales in their foreign subsidiaries. And when you consider that few expect the dollar to pull back any time soon, this trend is likely to persist for at least the rest of 2015.  As we’ve noted in the past, larger companies tend to have much greater global exposure than smaller companies. And in the face of rising global sales challenges, you would think large cap stocks would be losing favor. Yet the S&P 500 has actually outperformed the Russell 2000 (a small-cap index) over the past 13 months. The simple explanation: global uncertainty tends to lead to a “flight to quality” as larger companies are generally seen as safer investments. Yet as Q1 earnings season will likely show, these aren’t “quality” times for big companies.  That’s why I am focusing my research these days on small-cap stocks. A number of individual stocks in the Russell 2000 are now trading far from their 52-week high,… Read More

You would be shocked to know how many accepted “facts” in the financial world are simply not true.  For example, you may have been told that asset allocation — the amount of your portfolio you dedicate to stocks, bonds, etc. — is more important to your future returns than stock selection. This widely cited idea comes from a grossly misinterpreted study that suggests “more than 91.5% of a portfolio’s return is attributable to its mix of asset classes. In this study, individual stock selection and market timing accounted for less than 7% of a diversified portfolio’s return.” The statistic is… Read More

You would be shocked to know how many accepted “facts” in the financial world are simply not true.  For example, you may have been told that asset allocation — the amount of your portfolio you dedicate to stocks, bonds, etc. — is more important to your future returns than stock selection. This widely cited idea comes from a grossly misinterpreted study that suggests “more than 91.5% of a portfolio’s return is attributable to its mix of asset classes. In this study, individual stock selection and market timing accounted for less than 7% of a diversified portfolio’s return.” The statistic is attributed to a 1986 paper published in the Financial Analysts Journal called “Determinants of Portfolio Performance,” written by Gary P. Brinson, CFA, Randolph Hood, and Gilbert L. Beebower. It is commonly referred to as the BHB study. Read that way, the study is basically telling us stock picking is a waste of time since we can only squeeze a small amount of performance out of the stock selection process. If you read the paper closely, however, the authors actually said something different. BHB studied the variation of a portfolio’s quarterly returns. #-ad_banner-# I don’t know where the misinterpretation started, but… Read More