Brace yourselves — the busiest retail season of the year is almost upon us.   Many economists have high hopes for consumer activity during the upcoming holidays and for good reason. Three big factors are making a good argument for increased spending in the fourth quarter: 1.    More jobs: September’s unemployment rate of 5.9% is just a few clicks off from what is considered full employment. The American work force has gained two million jobs this year. 2.    Higher confidence: Consumer confidence, which puts a number to how optimistic people feel about the overall state of the economy, is at its highest… Read More

Brace yourselves — the busiest retail season of the year is almost upon us.   Many economists have high hopes for consumer activity during the upcoming holidays and for good reason. Three big factors are making a good argument for increased spending in the fourth quarter: 1.    More jobs: September’s unemployment rate of 5.9% is just a few clicks off from what is considered full employment. The American work force has gained two million jobs this year. 2.    Higher confidence: Consumer confidence, which puts a number to how optimistic people feel about the overall state of the economy, is at its highest point in seven years. 3.    Lower gas prices: Oil prices have fallen to two-year lows, bringing gas prices down with them. Those savings mean income is free to move elsewhere (i.e. into retail).  Analysts expect even more drops to come soon too.   #-ad_banner-#Thinking that the perfect storm is brewing for consumer spending, I set out a few days ago to see if I could uncover a few beat-up apparel stocks that could benefit from a bounce this holiday season. I started with a few basic criteria, whittling down my universe to stocks that are trading near yearly… Read More

If you had any doubt about the market’s manic-depressive nature and the fact that rational investors can make out-sized gains, then October should have fully dismissed any remaining disbelief. By mid-September, the market had shrugged off late-summer jitters and jumped higher to a gain of nearly 9% on the year. The economic picture in the United States was looking great and even the shadow of rising rates next year could not keep stocks from new highs. #-ad_banner-#Then October hit and the S&P 500 plunged 7.4% from its high on relatively little new information. Sure the crisis in Ukraine was flaring… Read More

If you had any doubt about the market’s manic-depressive nature and the fact that rational investors can make out-sized gains, then October should have fully dismissed any remaining disbelief. By mid-September, the market had shrugged off late-summer jitters and jumped higher to a gain of nearly 9% on the year. The economic picture in the United States was looking great and even the shadow of rising rates next year could not keep stocks from new highs. #-ad_banner-#Then October hit and the S&P 500 plunged 7.4% from its high on relatively little new information. Sure the crisis in Ukraine was flaring and Ebola gave doomsayers something to talk about, but none of this was new or had a realistic probability of hitting earnings. Just as soon as the so-called “smart money” started to call for profit-taking and a larger correction, the market rebounded. The S&P 500 has jumped 8.5% since its October low and looks just as healthy as it ever did. Against the roller coaster ride of market prices in October, investors made an even bigger mistake in one company. This company has dominated one of the fastest growing themes for years and shares have surged more than sevenfold in… Read More

Everyone who invests money is aware of Warren Buffett — the richest and most successful equity investor the world has ever known. Unlike many billionaires who made their fortune with one really good idea, Buffett made his by repeatedly picking outperforming investments. Arguably, there is no better stock picker from whom to borrow ideas. #-ad_banner-#What might surprise many is just how concentrated Buffett’s massive portfolio still is. As of his most recent annual report Buffett’s company Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) had a $117 billion equity portfolio and a whopping $64 billion, or 54.7%, of that… Read More

Everyone who invests money is aware of Warren Buffett — the richest and most successful equity investor the world has ever known. Unlike many billionaires who made their fortune with one really good idea, Buffett made his by repeatedly picking outperforming investments. Arguably, there is no better stock picker from whom to borrow ideas. #-ad_banner-#What might surprise many is just how concentrated Buffett’s massive portfolio still is. As of his most recent annual report Buffett’s company Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) had a $117 billion equity portfolio and a whopping $64 billion, or 54.7%, of that was invested in just four companies. Buffett has always run with a very concentrated portfolio. The reason: he is laser-focused on not making mistakes. Buffett’s first rule of investing is don’t lose money.  His second rule is don’t forget rule #1. If an investment isn’t an absolute slam dunk, then Buffett doesn’t invest a penny. Three years ago, when Buffett invested the largest single sum of money in his career in one company, people paid attention. Buffett quietly accumulated a massive $11 billion position in International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) starting in 2011. I say quietly because he received… Read More

The backdrop is Bangkok, Thailand — where I’m spending a week meeting with colleagues before heading on to Myanmar. #-ad_banner-#I happened to be strolling down Bangkok’s main artery, Sukhumvit Road, on my way to a meeting about 30 minutes from the Intercontinental Hotel, where I usually hang my hat. What I saw was frankly incredible. In 30 minutes of walking, I passed no fewer than six different Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) locations. That’s about one store every two blocks. Below are some shots of this diverse array. Not only does Starbucks have a major presence here — the company… Read More

The backdrop is Bangkok, Thailand — where I’m spending a week meeting with colleagues before heading on to Myanmar. #-ad_banner-#I happened to be strolling down Bangkok’s main artery, Sukhumvit Road, on my way to a meeting about 30 minutes from the Intercontinental Hotel, where I usually hang my hat. What I saw was frankly incredible. In 30 minutes of walking, I passed no fewer than six different Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) locations. That’s about one store every two blocks. Below are some shots of this diverse array. Not only does Starbucks have a major presence here — the company has made itself a mainstay of street life, all in a short period of time. This is just a taste of what’s been going on around the world for the company. Earlier this year, Starbucks hit a major milestone in its global growth, opening its 20,000th store worldwide. Today, the company operates in 64 countries. And consumers aren’t the only ones that have been happy with the company. Just look at the gains shareholders have enjoyed over the past five years… That’s a significant achievement. And it flies in the face of analysts, which questioned whether the giant… Read More

Now is not the time to be taking imprudent risks in the market. True, the S&P 500 has rebounded strongly from its mid-October lows. But the September peak at 2,019 may present formidable resistance. That’s about 25 points away, and the index has come very far very fast. In this tricky environment, I am looking for stocks that meet two important criteria:  1. Double-digit revenue and earnings growth projections; and 2. A rock-solid technical picture with no nearby resistance looming overhead. Strategic Hotels & Resorts (NYSE: BEE) fits the bill. The real estate investment trust (REIT) operates high-end hotels… Read More

Now is not the time to be taking imprudent risks in the market. True, the S&P 500 has rebounded strongly from its mid-October lows. But the September peak at 2,019 may present formidable resistance. That’s about 25 points away, and the index has come very far very fast. In this tricky environment, I am looking for stocks that meet two important criteria:  1. Double-digit revenue and earnings growth projections; and 2. A rock-solid technical picture with no nearby resistance looming overhead. Strategic Hotels & Resorts (NYSE: BEE) fits the bill. The real estate investment trust (REIT) operates high-end hotels like Fairmont, Marriott and Westin. #-ad_banner-#Industry trends are bullish. Business and leisure travel are growing, and hotel occupancy rates are in an uptrend. In August, the U.S. hotel industry’s occupancy rate climbed 3.8% year over year to 71.6%, according to Smith Travel Research. Year to date, the occupancy rate is at 66% — the highest in 17 years. PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) expects this trend to continue. Demand for hotel rooms is forecast to rise 4% for 2014, with available supply growing just 1%.  Increased demand coupled with low supply, should create a favorable environment. And higher occupancy rates will… Read More

When retailers have sales, the unknown names are often the ones that get discounted the most. It’s common to get a deal on names that no one’s ever heard of before, but when a brand name goes on sale, everyone takes notice. That discounted price won’t last long. The recent correction in the marketplace created some value opportunities across the board — brand names included. Normally, value investors look for relatively unknown or obscure names that analysts have glossed over or ignored entirely to find price disparities that they can take advantage of. But when certain conditions align, even big… Read More

When retailers have sales, the unknown names are often the ones that get discounted the most. It’s common to get a deal on names that no one’s ever heard of before, but when a brand name goes on sale, everyone takes notice. That discounted price won’t last long. The recent correction in the marketplace created some value opportunities across the board — brand names included. Normally, value investors look for relatively unknown or obscure names that analysts have glossed over or ignored entirely to find price disparities that they can take advantage of. But when certain conditions align, even big names can get discounted and make for an easy portfolio pick-up. Like the name brand retail sale, these high quality stocks won’t stay under-priced for long. Take a look at Magna International, Inc. (NYSE: MGA), a $20 billion automotive parts wholesaler that operates on a global scale. The company has been aggressively expanding with the acquisition of Techform Group Of Companies, as well as the opening of two new plants in India. The auto industry is set to grow for 2015. U.S. sales rose 9% in September compared to the same month last year, while IHS Automotive predicts total… Read More

At first glance, the market appears to have dodged a bullet. The Dow and the S&P 500 have rallied back to around 17,000 and 2,000, respectively, leading to the impression that the early October sell-off was just a head fake. But real damage was done. A number of individual stocks now remain far below their 52-week highs. For value investors, stocks that have been tarnished — and not the ones hitting 52-week highs — are a key area of focus. As a bit of confirmation that these stocks are oversold, these investors like to know that company insiders also think… Read More

At first glance, the market appears to have dodged a bullet. The Dow and the S&P 500 have rallied back to around 17,000 and 2,000, respectively, leading to the impression that the early October sell-off was just a head fake. But real damage was done. A number of individual stocks now remain far below their 52-week highs. For value investors, stocks that have been tarnished — and not the ones hitting 52-week highs — are a key area of focus. As a bit of confirmation that these stocks are oversold, these investors like to know that company insiders also think shares sport value. And there’s no better way to express that than with cold hard cash. Here are three stocks that now trade well below the 52-week high and have seen recent solid insider buying. (All data supplied by insiderinsights.com). PolyOne Corp. (NYSE: POL) This producer of polymers and other specialty plastics is surely feeling the impact of a challenging global market. Despite the addition of a range of new products in recent years, Q3 sales were roughly flat with year-ago results. Thankfully, a rapidly shrinking share count helped pave the way for a solid jump in per share… Read More

While volatility like we’ve had recently often creates great bargains, even the best do-it-yourself stock pickers can find it hard to take full advantage of buying opportunities before they slip away. So rather than try to navigate choppy waters entirely on your own, why not consider turning over a substantial portion of your portfolio to the pros? #-ad_banner-#​One top large-cap fund I especially like has a long, successful history of capitalizing on stock market fluctuations. And its lead managers, two noted value investors, were out looking for bargains during the latest bout of volatility. Read More

While volatility like we’ve had recently often creates great bargains, even the best do-it-yourself stock pickers can find it hard to take full advantage of buying opportunities before they slip away. So rather than try to navigate choppy waters entirely on your own, why not consider turning over a substantial portion of your portfolio to the pros? #-ad_banner-#​One top large-cap fund I especially like has a long, successful history of capitalizing on stock market fluctuations. And its lead managers, two noted value investors, were out looking for bargains during the latest bout of volatility. In a recent interview with CNBC a couple weeks ago, for example, co-manager Bill Nygren revealed some stocks he considered worthy values at the time. Among these were IT services provider Accenture Plc (NYSE: ACN), the Swiss commodities and mining firm Glencore Plc (OTC: GLNCY), the well-known appliance maker Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE: WHR) and Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS), which is dominant in the resorts and casinos space. In each case, he and co-manager Kevin Grant invested in… Read More

With oil prices stabilizing, U.S. stock indexes rebounding and volatility on the decline, things are looking a lot better for investors than they were just a couple weeks ago. However, I doubt I’m alone in my sneaking suspicion that the recent sharp pullback was only a hint of what might be in store. Despite the current strength in stocks, some bearish risk factors are lurking. And these could converge relatively soon to precipitate a massive selloff that brings the S&P 500 down by 15%, 20% or maybe even more. #-ad_banner-#Ironically, some of the things that could contribute to such an… Read More

With oil prices stabilizing, U.S. stock indexes rebounding and volatility on the decline, things are looking a lot better for investors than they were just a couple weeks ago. However, I doubt I’m alone in my sneaking suspicion that the recent sharp pullback was only a hint of what might be in store. Despite the current strength in stocks, some bearish risk factors are lurking. And these could converge relatively soon to precipitate a massive selloff that brings the S&P 500 down by 15%, 20% or maybe even more. #-ad_banner-#Ironically, some of the things that could contribute to such an event are usually considered positive — like solid (if unspectacular) domestic growth. According to the International Monetary Fund, U.S. gross domestic product is on pace to climb 2.2% this year and should accelerate to 3.1% in 2015. What’s more, the slowdown in China may not be severe enough to hinder growth for the United States and the rest of the world. In the third quarter, China’s GDP actually rose at an annualized rate of 7.3%, beating calls for 7.2% expansion. The second quarter’s 7.5% growth rate was strong, too. Clearly, though, China is transitioning to slower growth after years of… Read More

Peter Lynch, the legendary portfolio manager of the Fidelity Magellan fund until his retirement in 1990, said that investors can find great stocks by simply walking around the local shopping mall. Wherever there are crowds lined up to buy from a company, chances are its stock is a good investment.  Based on this theory, my own reconnaissance tells me that shares of Dunkin’ Brands (NASDAQ: DNKN) will soon be back in rally mode. #-ad_banner-#After a solid 2013, the stock peaked in March of this year. It’s been a rough road since then, culminating in a 7.3% drop at… Read More

Peter Lynch, the legendary portfolio manager of the Fidelity Magellan fund until his retirement in 1990, said that investors can find great stocks by simply walking around the local shopping mall. Wherever there are crowds lined up to buy from a company, chances are its stock is a good investment.  Based on this theory, my own reconnaissance tells me that shares of Dunkin’ Brands (NASDAQ: DNKN) will soon be back in rally mode. #-ad_banner-#After a solid 2013, the stock peaked in March of this year. It’s been a rough road since then, culminating in a 7.3% drop at the open on July 24, after the company reported a shortfall in second-quarter sales.  Technically, we can call it a selling climax or capitulation based on the large price movement and huge volume. With the supply of shares finally dried up, the stock started to come back. The trend since then has actually been to the upside, albeit with many bumps along the way. Fast forward to Thursday when the company again reported lower-than-expected sales for the third quarter despite beating earnings estimates. Once again, the stock cratered on the open, this time by 5.5%, only to be followed by… Read More